Demand for previous years American Eagle Silver Coins

[SpacePete]

If you have the stock, you could value-add by packaging multi-year sets and selling for a higher premium.

 

[barsenault]

But there are talks about changing the design of the American Silver Eagle.....

Yeah, but there must be 200 million of these things out there...and they all look the same...I don't touch these with a 10 foot pole. No thanks. Not when you can get a low mintage, high quality, high demand, change of image yearly, PM kook for about the same cost. Nah, you keep your eagles. I'll stick with the best mint there is in the world. The Perth Mint. And heck, I'm a U.S. citizen, born and raised...I just call a spade a spade.

Everything is relative and what I wrote below is when buying for investment vs. as a hobby and the bid-ask spreads may be very different outside the US.

ASEs over Kooks:

1. You might need to resell quickly. ASEs have a much smaller bid ask spread and a much larger market.
2. Buying for the silver value only. ASEs are cheaper. Of course, rounds and bars are even cheaper.

Kooks over ASEs:

1. You are buying with numismatic appreciation expectation and have the financial ability to sell the coins slowly or to be able to wait for a hot market.

Question I have though is, if you had a roll of eagles for 25.00 and I had a roll of kooks for 25.00 and 5 years down the road we decide to auction on eBay that same roll all at once...the one roll - which would get sold for more? And my bet (and I put my money on it), is the kooks would get more and sell just as fast...and if I had 10 rolls of kooks to your 10 rolls of ASE, I still say the kooks go just as quick and for more money...much more money.

 

[fltacoma]

Well. Getting into the nitty gritty details, there are a host of reasons why either type of bullion would go up in value over time. I would say that pandas are a better value than both stated above. The kooks don't really sell out because I could go down to the local coin shop and buy a 2014 right now. If you were to sell the roll of kooks on ebay, how long would they take to sell? If silver were to go up five dollars, would the kooks still have that buffer zone?

 

[barsenault]

Well. Getting into the nitty gritty details, there are a host of reasons why either type of bullion would go up in value over time. I would say that pandas are a better value than both stated above. The kooks don't really sell out because I could go down to the local coin shop and buy a 2014 right now. If you were to sell the roll of kooks on ebay, how long would they take to sell? If silver were to go up five dollars, would the kooks still have that buffer zone?

Not sure, as I don't plan on selling any of my many kooks any time soon. But I'd have to think that come 15- 20 years down the road, the liquidity of the kooks (any year) vs eagles, will be better...time will tell. But I've placed my bets accordingly. I just don't see 8 million Pandas per year growing in value as much as kooks, as nice as they are. I know, I know, there is a gazillion people in china and if they start buying, blah, blah...okay, as I said, time will tell. I've placed my bets, and will continue to so...and hope for the best.

 

[fltacoma]

I know what ya mean! lol

Well. Getting into the nitty gritty details, there are a host of reasons why either type of bullion would go up in value over time. I would say that pandas are a better value than both stated above. The kooks don't really sell out because I could go down to the local coin shop and buy a 2014 right now. If you were to sell the roll of kooks on ebay, how long would they take to sell? If silver were to go up five dollars, would the kooks still have that buffer zone?

Not sure, as I don't plan on selling any of my many kooks any time soon. But I'd have to think that come 15- 20 years down the road, the liquidity of the kooks (any year) vs eagles, will be better...time will tell. But I've placed my bets accordingly. I just don't see 8 million Pandas per year growing in value as much as kooks, as nice as they are. I know, I know, there is a gazillion people in china and if they start buying, blah, blah...okay, as I said, time will tell. I've placed my bets, and will continue to so...and hope for the best.

 

[dccpa]

Everything is relative and what I wrote below is when buying for investment vs. as a hobby and the bid-ask spreads may be very different outside the US.

ASEs over Kooks:

1. You might need to resell quickly. ASEs have a much smaller bid ask spread and a much larger market.
2. Buying for the silver value only. ASEs are cheaper. Of course, rounds and bars are even cheaper.

Kooks over ASEs:

1. You are buying with numismatic appreciation expectation and have the financial ability to sell the coins slowly or to be able to wait for a hot market.

Question I have though is, if you had a roll of eagles for 25.00 and I had a roll of kooks for 25.00 and 5 years down the road we decide to auction on eBay that same roll all at once...the one roll - which would get sold for more? And my bet (and I put my money on it), is the kooks would get more and sell just as fast...and if I had 10 rolls of kooks to your 10 rolls of ASE, I still say the kooks go just as quick and for more money...much more money.

You are starting with the false assumption that ASEs and kooks are similarly priced. Just quickly checking Provident, 2014 ASEs are $22.65 and 2014 kooks are $29.86 (roll quantity). That substantial price difference nullifies the rest of the argument. But looking at prior ebay sales and personal experience through a dealer, I would say the kooks were sell for more on a relatively fast basis only if you heavily discounted them from regular market price. There were few kook rolls even offered in the US, so I checked ebay AU and most of the rolls didn't sell.

http://www.ebay.com.au/sch/i.html?_...os=&LH_SALE_CURRENCY=0&_sop=12&_dmd=1&_ipg=50

On a side note, why do people sell quantities of ASEs on ebay? Dealers will pay a premium of about $2 over spot. Compare that easy transaction to the hassle and risk of selling on ebay for what seems to be a similar net premium (after ebay & pp costs) and I have never understood the allure of ebay for bulk type coins.

 

[dccpa]

Slightly off topic. I wonder if more people would be interested in libertads at the prices you are doing your ase/ maples? They seem to have a strong following in the SS community. I have not seen anywhere else in Australia ase rolls for under $26.

You can add up every single 1oz Libertad ever made and the total number is still MILLIONS fewer than the number of Silver Eagles or Maples that were made in 2013 alone.

If you're betting scarcity, Libertads are absolutely a better bet than Eagles.

Scarcity is only one factor, you also have to have demand. I think the Libertads are beautiful coins, but there isn't significant demand. Unless Mexicans become more wealthy, I don't see any reason the demand for Libertads would significantly increase.

 

[dccpa]

Well. Getting into the nitty gritty details, there are a host of reasons why either type of bullion would go up in value over time. I would say that pandas are a better value than both stated above. The kooks don't really sell out because I could go down to the local coin shop and buy a 2014 right now. If you were to sell the roll of kooks on ebay, how long would they take to sell? If silver were to go up five dollars, would the kooks still have that buffer zone?

Not sure, as I don't plan on selling any of my many kooks any time soon. But I'd have to think that come 15- 20 years down the road, the liquidity of the kooks (any year) vs eagles, will be better...time will tell. But I've placed my bets accordingly. I just don't see 8 million Pandas per year growing in value as much as kooks, as nice as they are. I know, I know, there is a gazillion people in china and if they start buying, blah, blah...okay, as I said, time will tell. I've placed my bets, and will continue to so...and hope for the best.

barsenault, I am curious what you think will cause the liquidity for kooks to increase?

To address fltacoma's question, in 2010 with silver at $20 and lunar premiums $4 in the US, lunars were a no brainer investment. The dealer premiums on kooks have at least doubled and lunars at least tripled in the last couple of years. When pms tanked in 2008, I wasn't following lunars or kooks closely. But from what I remember, premiums on the ones I saw shrank significantly, but I only saw the newer years. During the silver mania of 2011, premiums increased greatly. I remember the 1oz 2010 lunar tigers went for as high as $100 on ebay. As silver declined, the tigers dropped at a slower pace than silver. With silver at say $45, the premium on a $100 coin was 122%. With silver at $21, the premium on a $75 coin is 257%.

ASEs provide liquidity and privacy for US citizens, but Kooks have the potential for premium appreciation. Now that the buy premium on Kooks has doubled, it would be much harder for me to determine whether or not they are a better investment than ASEs. And if silver went up $5, I believe the Kooks would probably go up more than $5. If I was in AU, my answer would be ignore ASEs and Kooks and buy Lunars. But since we are in the US, my answer is lunars over kooks even if the lunars are $4 higher than kooks. But unless lunar premiums decline this coming year, lunars vs. ASEs is a much tougher decision. Whether you feel silver will go up significantly or moderately over the next few years will greatly affect your decision on which coin is better to buy.


I agree with you about the Pandas, but mainly because I believe the fake coin issue has driven many investors, including myself, away from Panda coins.

 

[fltacoma]

I would say that from a PURELY investment standpoint, the ASE's would be dead last (with the exception of the 2011 five piece set) but even that is slowly going down. The lunar are good, but the majority can be had for under $70. Chinese pandas are just a nice coin to have because of the design changes every year. The kooks can be had for under $45 with the exception of the 2008 of course. Now if I were to just buy silver I would buy generic rounds/bars. Second would be ASE's because most dealers will pay over spot vs. The generic rounds. That's just my .02 cents worth and also that I work at a coin store....in the US that is. Whenever older kooks and lunar coins come in the shop, I buy them up

 

[iluvbeanz]

ASE's are terrible for investment and price appreciation, but one of the best for trusted bullion. People don't purchase normal ASE coins with a price appreciation in mind, as it mostly just ride the spot wave.

 

[dccpa]

I would say that from a PURELY investment standpoint, the ASE's would be dead last (with the exception of the 2011 five piece set) but even that is slowly going down. The lunar are good, but the majority can be had for under $70. Chinese pandas are just a nice coin to have because of the design changes every year. The kooks can be had for under $45 with the exception of the 2008 of course. Now if I were to just buy silver I would buy generic rounds/bars. Second would be ASE's because most dealers will pay over spot vs. The generic rounds. That's just my .02 cents worth and also that I work at a coin store....in the US that is. Whenever older kooks and lunar coins come in the shop, I buy them up

I would disagree that the ASEs are the worst investment. Assuming you are buying in quantity, the bid ask spread is only .60 right now and that is less than the spread on rounds. In addition to a lower spread, you have the advantages of massive liquidity and privacy. For me, those advantages are worth more than the 5% extra premium you will pay for an ASE vs. a generic round. Since you work at a coin shop, your criteria is different than that of us less fortunate souls. I agree that Pandas are nice coins, I just think the premium potential of the post 2010 Pandas is limited by the increased mintage and the fraud issue. If I was only buying one of these various coins, investment would not be a consideration. But buying in quantity as an investment, I would go ASEs or Lunars first and the other coin second, but would likely buy both if the Lunar premium is under $10. Buying both coins would give me the diversification of privacy, liquidity and premium appreciation. Selling my ASEs last year was easy and painless. Trying to sell that many kooks could have only been accomplished by selling back to a dealer at spot + $3 per oz. Look at the kooks on Apmex. Apmex is out of the 2010 & 2011 kooks, but they don't even have a buy back price listed. That is not a very liquid market. And even on 2014 quantity buys, you have an $8 spread on the kook vs. a .60 spread on the ASE.

If I was buying in tens of thousands of ounces, I would likely go for low premium bars over all coins and rounds.

To iluvbeanz, you probably mean premium appreciation vs. price appreciation. If someone is an investor, they are hoping for price appreciation on all silver products.

 

[fltacoma]

DCCPA, I meant that from a numismatic standpoint, ASE's are not a good play for that kind of market. I do fully agree that the premiums for eagles are low, and should be taken advantage of I might be buying some here in a little bit.

 

[yrh0413]

From what I see the premiums for silver coins still boils down to where you stay and where you source your coins from.

If you are from the States it is obvious that silver coins other than ASEs have much higher premiums. If your objective is to offload your silver when spot is in your favor then ASEs are perfect... low premium high liquidity but then again I would go for silver bars if I am purchasing more than 10oz.

However in countries like Australia and Singapore, kooks are only ~$1 more than ASEs. For that extra dollar one gets to play both numismatic potential and rising spot prices, pretty much a no-brainer I would say

 

[pinkmanwhite]

Didn't realise that this was such a hot topic!

 

[Pirocco]

There is a Kookaburra set of 20 coins from 2009 for sale at a dealer in my region, he normally doesn't have such sets for sale, and it's just a single set, so some stacker must have sold it to him for the cash.
The for sale is already since 2012.
What does this say about liquidity?

 

[Jislizard]

There is a Kookaburra set of 20 coins from 2009 for sale at a dealer in my region, he normally doesn't have such sets for sale, and it's just a single set, so some stacker must have sold it to him for the cash.
The for sale is already since 2012.
What does this say about liquidity?

Maybe it is priced too high. How much does he want for it, someone on here might snap it up.

 

[Pirocco]

There is a Kookaburra set of 20 coins from 2009 for sale at a dealer in my region, he normally doesn't have such sets for sale, and it's just a single set, so some stacker must have sold it to him for the cash.
The for sale is already since 2012.
What does this say about liquidity?

Maybe it is priced too high. How much does he want for it, someone on here might snap it up.

The price changed seldom, and by not much, and it's is probably one he set based upon what he paid the one that sold it to him.
It's now 895 euro, and it has only been one other price: 875 euro
https://www.thesilvermountain.nl/nl/20-delige-set-zilveren-kookaburra-munten

 

[yrh0413]

if the dealer bought them at a higher price then that's too bad... we have one good offer in the forum's sales thread going for ~690 euros.

 

[Pirocco]

Funny thing is, this dealer officially buys back from customers, even guarantee to buy back, his buy back price drops with spot, but the price of this set did not drop.

 

[yrh0413]

It depends on how dealers handle buyback for numismatic/semi-numismatic coins. In Singapore most precious metal dealers buyback silver and gold coins pretty much at spot + slight premium regardless of its numismatic value.