Dec. Fed meeting. Rate hike and silver and gold price predictions.

silvestor

silvestor

Member
Silver Stacker
It seems like 90% of economic analysts believe the rate hike will happen in December. Peter Schiff although, is pretty positive it will remain at 0%. What do you think?

How will a rate hike or lack of one affect the silver and gold prices? Will the lack of a rate hike be more aggressive in terms of driving the price up as oppose to hiking the rate and driving the price down as it might be already discounted for?
 
silvestor said:
It seems like 90% of economic analyst believe the rate hike will happen in December. Peter Schiff although is pretty positive it will remain at 0%. What do you think.

How will a rate hike or lack of one affect the silver and gold prices? Will the lack of a rate hike be more aggressive in terms of driving the price up as oppose to hiking the rate and driving the price down as it might be already discounted for?
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I think they will raise 25 basis points unless some crazy bad economic news comes out before then. Check this out, about a Fed "expedited" meeting set for Monday. I wonder what it is for?


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-20/fed-hold-expedited-closed-meeting-monday


Jim
 
Peter Schiff although is pretty positive it will remain at 0%.

I'd say Peter is on the money.

My guess is there won't be a rate rise.
 
I have a sense of doom regardless of which way they go. If they raise, share market goes down. If it stays, dollar goes down. Either may be enough to take the US economy to the brink.

It's a doom mood I'm in.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
Jim4silver said:
I think they will raise 25 basis points
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Just to prove they can?
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They've threatened enough so they will have to do it at some time. Just like when they started the "QE taper" a few years back, they kept promising and that is all they talked about on the talking head financial channels "is the Fed gonna taper QE?". Finally the Fed tapered and that was that. I think if we fast forward to now the whole interest rate issue seems similar. They delayed doing it for so long but finally they will move it. Maybe they want to raise it now so later they can lower it again later on if they feel the need to try and "juice" things?

Just my guess.

Jim
 
Nope...No raise in December. Yellen and Co haven't got the balls to lift rates before Christmas ! Who wants bad news with a hint of a market crash. Ponzi lives to fight another day, till another Fed meeting in 2016. Then they'll lift rates. Meanwhile Santa can continue to dispatch presents without any doom and gloom. But I suspect at some point Yellen will pass the batten to her successor, and he or she can do the dirty work.
 
Eventually Schiff will get something right, but not this time. Yellen is scared to raise rates, but she is forced to in order to keep the Fed's remaining ability to affect the markets through talk.
 
Any decision that is made will be done on the basis of political/credibility considerations and not for economic reasons. Lets not forget that 2016 is an election year for the US.
 
Peter Schiff has been right all year when every other economist said they will definitely raise rates.

I reckon he is right again, and the Fed will find some excuse not to raise rates.
 
sammy said:
Any decision that is made will be done on the basis of political/credibility considerations and not for economic reasons. Lets not forget that 2016 is an election year for the US.
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Do you think it is more likely rates will be raised directly before Christmas or during an election year?
They will have to raise them at some point to maintain at least a shred of credibility. I'm really not sure about this one... Pretty much a coin toss.
 
Sportsbet:

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A rate rise a week before Christmas? I doubt it. I will be up watching anyway so if they do I'll be going short silver and JNUG.
Still sticking with my punt of a rate increase announcement either the first or second press conference of 2016.
 
Don't know. The fact that it'd be very unusual to raise rates right before Christmas, but yet they keep talking about doing it.. Makes me think they will do it.

Or maybe they'll use the chaos in Europe as an excuse this time, which would be a new one.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
Sportsbet:
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wow.. maximum bet they allow is $57 for the win on 2016 or later and $250 for December. If thats the case, then in a way the true odds are actually in 2016 or later favour.
 
I'm betting no. If they do then it's not going to happen again for a long long time and we might well see some sort of easing before we see a second hike. With Europe, Japan and China going easy rather than tightening, cuts on the table here and in a few other key areas it seems hard to believe that they're looking at a protracted period of raising. Some of their most important companies are feeling the squeeze hard already, currency impacts for some, others relying on cheap borrowing to fund projects or maintain share prices with debt funded buy backs.
 
Proper Gander said:
Peter Schiff has been right all year when every other economist said they will definitely raise rates.

I reckon he is right again, and the Fed will find some excuse not to raise rates.
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Several years ago, I dug into some of Schiff's so called correct predictions. For example, he claimed to have correctly called the price of oil. But when I looked at his price predictions, he had made several price predictions within a $30 price range. Then Schiff picked the closest price and called victory. Since that time, I only pay attention to Schiff for amusement, like when he ran for the US Senate.

You don't make money off of salesmen/prognosticators like Schiff, they just distract you from paying attention and cost you money.
 
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