Current US Events taking place and effects on Au and Ag - HALP!

SilverJay

SilverJay

Member
Hi All

I find this forum so helpful to newbies and others alike that just need a bit of help or advice so I thought I would ask for some myself.... or at least gauge an opinion.


Just trying to get my head around events taking place right now and the October 17 date for the US Ceiling Level Deadline(to be raised?) and the possible prospect the US Govt. will shutdown for a day or more. Im starting to get most of it, but not at all sure how to predict its effects on the markets we watch so intently...

Would someone tell me - is now a good time to buy a few more 10oz Bars of Silver and a couple of 10-20g Bars of Gold? Im just not sure how all these events are 'expected' to effect the prices. Or should I hold off just a bit for some lower prices?

For the record. I own amounts of each already so prices going UP or DOWN = GOOD :D. Just wanted to know if I should be adding just a few more to the stack.... while I have the FIAT I guess, and while we are seeing some long awaitied volitility in the market?


Thanks for your advice guys.
 
The US has debated, and in the end raised the 'Debt Ceiling' about 70 times since WW2.

I believe they have also shut down over 20 times. I would be VERY surprised if it changes all that much in the coming weeks. My bet is they will raise it to maybe 20 trillion, and start all over again until next year.



JMO



OC
 
Old Codger said:
The US has debated, and in the end raised the 'Debt Ceiling' about 70 times since WW2.

I believe they have also shut down over 20 times. I would be VERY surprised if it changes all that much in the coming weeks. My bet is they will raise it to maybe 20 trillion, and start all over again until next year.
Click to expand...

Thanks OC

When doing a little reasearch saw that, but then thought.... there hasnt been one in 17 years (shutdown, that is).... with markets running more on confidence (or lack there of) than ever - these events dont just blow over lightly.

What I was hoping someone could shed some light on, was about some 'expected direction'? eg. raised vs. denied rasie + shudown vs no shutdown, and with that, what the predicted direction of Gold and Silver would be?
 
This event is just noise for the silver market. In itself it is not going to alter the direction of silver or gold.
The problem the government has is the debt limit....
The problem investors have is the amount of debt.
A bigger problem is the European crisis which has not gone away.
Bankrupt countries with worthless bonds being held as capital by banks which will become insolvent once the crisis re-emerges. This will put the Euro under enormous pressure.
Printing of money by the U.S. is still not enough to overcome the deflation of assets....so it is not a problem.....yet
The U.S. dollar and the stockmarket will be the beneficiary of the capital exodus from Europe....not U.S. bonds.
The problem is that gold and silver are still moving inversely to the U.S. dollar and a big run up in the dollar could see a low in gold below the $1000 mark.
Gold will break this connection once confidence is in the market but this will be when the common census is to get out. At that kind of gold price more than half the worlds producers are deep in the red.
This will be signal for the resumption of the bull run.....when it is the darkest.

In turn, however, the U.S. dollar will finally succumb to reality and then gold will shine its most brilliant....but all in time.
 
smackdown.jpg
 
the good news is the market swings on a daily basis, so you always,, mostly almost have a margin.

It was bad news the US gov shut shop today. And we have a 4% drop in Ag a 3.5% drop In Au prices. In the first hour. The US Comex just opened and it got hammered.

What can be learned? dont spend what you cant afford.
 
You are asking the impossible.
some will buy, some will sell, some will wait......
Has the silver price bottomed?......
This is something you must be comfortable with in your own head.
Investigate well and develop your own ideas.....
I personally would not be suprised to see $1000 dollar gold in the next 18 months....I would expect at that time that gold will be looking terrible...and then I will buy.
You have to be confident in your reasoning.....read both sides of the argument...bullish and bearish....check the performance of the so called expert chartists...( you will be suprised ) before you commit.
If I am wrong then I have a point further along that I will buy....it just means that I have missed on some capital gain that is all.
Good Luck
 
7081_ag_95_96_shut_down_spot.jpg


Silvers price bode well after the Clinton administrations December 16th 1995 to January 6th 1996 government shut down.

7081_au_95_96_shut_down_spot.jpg


Apart from a little kick upwards during the shut down, Golds longer term price however was well and truly on it's way to its 'Brown' bottom a few years down the track.

Don't know if any of this means anything today in a world of high frequency manipulation. However when you look at these big movements from that era and put them into the context of price movements from what has been an overall decade long bull market, they are just blips on the chart.

7081_au_95_96_shut_down_spot_to_present.jpg
 
KWN:

I think people like us, Eric, who are already pretty fully invested in physical gold should just relax. Understand that what's going on here is orchestrated and that it can't be sustained. KWN readers have to understand that when the US Dollar Index briefly broke below the critical psychological level of 80 on Tuesday, that is precisely when the massive intervention in the gold market began. But, again, this type of intervention cannot be sustained for very long.
 
how does the logic that in a time when the worlds super power is in partial shutdown and coming up on another debt ceiling debate coming up, in mega trillions of debt and only getting to be more and more and more and more buliding up... the Comex wearhouse stock shrinking and a whole number of other things
why are the price of metals not going through the roof and continuing to the moon? instead they seem to be heading underground. i know this is a manipulated market.. but really?
REALLY?
this makkie no sense ...
 
They are not going through the roof because capital is being deployed to investments that make a return, are capable of absorbing massive capital flows, enable a rapid exit and are exhibiting a sustainable growth/price rise pattern.
The rate of assett deflation is greater than the inflation created by money printing so inflation has not reared its head.....yet
Interest rates aren't rising.......yet
Gold is still consolidating
U.S. stockmarket is independant of a government shutdown so is safe. Stocks are also paying dividends and the stockmarket shows no sign of a blowoff.
The U.S. dollar is still in the game due to the fear and uncertainty in the Euro and the problems in the euro zone...
As for comex warehouse levels.....the bullion banks do have other vaults....don't base any decision on warehouse levels...this con has been played before...
Just be patient...
when interest rates in the u.s. move, they will move quick.....
watch the euro countries and possible sovereign defaults....this will collapse bonds and send the u.s. dollar and the u.s. stockmarket upwards as capital flees the most risky assets...gold will probably cop a whacking here....
but when the dust settles....then it will be time
 
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