crude oil down
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If oil prices are still trending lower or are at best treading water by the 1st of June I may put a little pocket change on it
In the etf? What happens on June 1? My tax return doesn't normally come for months...
I figure prices don't have much more than 5% or 10% room to drop, despite the noise the Saudis are making and it would only take a little mischief in land between two rivers or in Moscow to kick things into high gear.
I figure prices don't have much more than 5% or 10% room to drop, despite the noise the Saudis are making and it would only take a little mischief in land between two rivers or in Moscow to kick things into high gear.
The next OPEC meeting in on the 5th of June. It's good to get in a few days earlier to lock in any gains prior to an annoucement of a cut or not on oil production. If they don't cut at least hopefully you make a little profit on the speculation leading up to the annoucement otherwise oil should spike sharply if the do decide to cut production.
Is there really much downside left if they dont cut production though? Just thinking there are plenty of triggers that could send things into reverse like energy bonds falling over and a pile of the more expensive north American oil producers going belly up or isis making its way further into the oil fields.
That said there are a few things left that could keep the price down, I've heard US oil producers are trying to get expert restrictions eased which would put more oil into the global market.
I'm on the fence on this one but I don't have many other great ideas at the moment, I don't like the idea of leaving to much money in the ASX and I already have more PMs than I should...
That said there are a few things left that could keep the price down, I've heard US oil producers are trying to get expert restrictions eased which would put more oil into the global market.
I'm on the fence on this one but I don't have many other great ideas at the moment, I don't like the idea of leaving to much money in the ASX and I already have more PMs than I should...
What pressure does oil have to rise simply because it's fallen so much? Sure we may and should get a consolidation period after such a fall but there is little demand in market right now for higher prices. The energy junk bond market could collapse but I don't know whether it'll collapse within the next 6 months or so. I'm certainly not confident of catching a falling knife so I'm staying out until at least June unless oil somehow manages to break through major resistance levels which it is nowhere near doing at the moment.
I'm looking at it from the position of an IS student. I wouldn't argue that there are great economic reasons for it to rise, there's a glut, but I can see lots of geopolitical ones that shift markets.
The kurds are faltering despite the sterling effort of the pesh, if they start to fall apart you will see a limited US boots on the ground effort to prop them up since neither Bagdad or Turkey will. The moment the first acknowledged non advisor US troops step off the plane you can bet that will put a little lead in the oil markets pencil. Similar story if isis get into the oil fields, Baghdad or spring up in Saudi which isn't as crazy as it sounds. I know your not meant to bite the hand that feeds you but they think they are on a roll.
I also think russia will have to soon make a decision whether or not to bail out it's private sector oil companies either one by one depending on how friendly they are with the kremlin or set a general policy. Either way when it's clear they are failing I think the market will assume it's the start to a reduction in the glut. This might happen in the states as well but the oil companies have western partners that are in a tricky legal situation with regards to sanctions which might easily get worse and done hold foreign denominated debt that they now can't afford. They will have to get on without foreign joint ventures and FDI. Similarly some will struggle to buy foreign equipment due to sanctions and currency problems.
Plus, the Saudis are walking a tight rope in a few arenas. They can hold out longer than most but they aren't OPEC all on their own and they will have to listen to the others as the prices start to sing them more and more. Plus it won't take long for the US energy lobby to lean on people to lean on the state department to go knocking on palace doors in Riyadh, I mean we're about good American jobs here (and billions in now loss making capital works but I'm guessing we will hear a lot more about the jobs). If you believe the conspiracy theories then the oil prices have been set with the blessings of the states as a play against russia and Iran but every jobs are good for the president because they are high paying and look good on the average income portion of jobs reports and the Republicans like them because they sleep on a bed made of campaign contributions from oil companies.
The kurds are faltering despite the sterling effort of the pesh, if they start to fall apart you will see a limited US boots on the ground effort to prop them up since neither Bagdad or Turkey will. The moment the first acknowledged non advisor US troops step off the plane you can bet that will put a little lead in the oil markets pencil. Similar story if isis get into the oil fields, Baghdad or spring up in Saudi which isn't as crazy as it sounds. I know your not meant to bite the hand that feeds you but they think they are on a roll.
I also think russia will have to soon make a decision whether or not to bail out it's private sector oil companies either one by one depending on how friendly they are with the kremlin or set a general policy. Either way when it's clear they are failing I think the market will assume it's the start to a reduction in the glut. This might happen in the states as well but the oil companies have western partners that are in a tricky legal situation with regards to sanctions which might easily get worse and done hold foreign denominated debt that they now can't afford. They will have to get on without foreign joint ventures and FDI. Similarly some will struggle to buy foreign equipment due to sanctions and currency problems.
Plus, the Saudis are walking a tight rope in a few arenas. They can hold out longer than most but they aren't OPEC all on their own and they will have to listen to the others as the prices start to sing them more and more. Plus it won't take long for the US energy lobby to lean on people to lean on the state department to go knocking on palace doors in Riyadh, I mean we're about good American jobs here (and billions in now loss making capital works but I'm guessing we will hear a lot more about the jobs). If you believe the conspiracy theories then the oil prices have been set with the blessings of the states as a play against russia and Iran but every jobs are good for the president because they are high paying and look good on the average income portion of jobs reports and the Republicans like them because they sleep on a bed made of campaign contributions from oil companies.
46.3 for wtiadjust the limbo bar lower
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
It will have to rise eventually, even if it'll take 10-20 years.
Aren't we running out of oil?
Aren't we running out of oil?