Polar.bear.Stacker
Well-Known Member
I think the charts talk to you. You can draw houses and dinosaurs on them and then say they predict the future. Gotta love male astrology
Crapto Collapse
- Thread starter Michael Kay
- Start date
That's a screenshot from a weather guy's forecast I follow. The blue boxes are the 9 weather models in order of accuracy he uses for forecasting. Not one of them is 100% correct and non-one knows which one is correct until the event actually happens.
BTC won't fail because some TA guy sees a bear pennant pattern forming or an imminent death cross. If it fails it will be because its fundamentals failed, and that is a genuine possibility. Though I'd say it'll fail on the currency front rather than as an eventual store of value scenario even if that is way off in the future. There are far more roadblocks to it becoming a widespread alternative to fiat than as a store of value.
TA is great if you want to trade, but shithouse at making predictions on the viability of a company or product. We need to dig into the fundamentals if we want to see that future.
I for one think BTC is solid, but I'm not personally seeking to move mountains of wealth between assets. I'll comment on trading for the thrill of it and also to help with entry points when I think it's worthwhile. The rest is smack-talk
Michael Kay
Well-Known Member
Last night I actually watched all of this. Why? Because the guy has really excellent video editing and making skills and knows how to communicate his message.
You need to apply critical thinking to all, whether it be this guy or that frumpy old Danielle DiMartino Booth, marc faber or Michael Moore or whoever. This guy's angle is selling videography and video editing equipment and tools. He is not pushing a financial product.
He makes some good points about NFTs and the culture behind cryptos and influencers. It reminds me of a cult, especially Scientology, but also MLM schemes: the use of acronyms like HoDL, FUD etc..., and having to check in each day online with acronyms GM and GN (good morning, good night). Also shutting down any non-believers and labelling them with other acronyms or put-downs like "paper hands" or FUD. I think it is the HODLers that are keeping the price of BTC up. And this guy shows his side of the argument pretty articulately.
IMO BTC has a floor somewhere but the blockchain/NFT market is still packed full of idiots, and is a real "wild west". If Snoop Dogg is pushing it, that's a warning flag if I ever saw one. Regulation and the whole FTX aftermath will make things interesting.
Haha yes of course, when I have a position! And here's some more lunchtime smack talk - If it's a raging bull market (probably more applicable to stocks and crypto than say housing) then I still find having my 'emotional ear' to the ground is superior to the boredom and frustration I get purely analysing charts, and with algo trading it can be like playing chess against a supercomputer. Very rarely can you get away with textbook style analysis, more likely you need to be constantly analysing in real-time to detect patterns changing, and often comparing notes with others. Pays to remember that algo programmers already know status quo technical analysis and are programmed to beat the game with false confirmations, spoofing etc. I've become pretty good at gauging the emotion of the general market rather than react according to my own (hint - it's mostly counter intuitive, there are feelings that take over that you need to train yourself to consider as red flags, then just watch the red flags popping up everywhere else). Finally, TA can often confirm this and add precision to trades - if you get greedy over the difference between 9 or 10 bags then that's also a problem.
With BTC value I still have issues with how value is determined in the current phase of adoption. It's easy to say BTC has overcome all the previous challenges and has a fractal or unbreakable log trend, but to me that just seems obvious as it never reached a saturation point (e.g. global awareness) until recently. The new phase of adoption is institutional and that comes with new challenges.
I also like the internet comparisons. Sure the value the internet has bought to the world is immense, but look how easy it is to access and use the internet - you can do it free at any wifi hot spot. Like this, I believe the utility of blockchain will be realised at a much cheaper and subsidised cost. I'm sure a blockchain could be run and secured at a minimum level of acceptance at a fraction of current costs, depending on the intended purpose. This is where BTC defeats the other cryptos in security and decentralisation of the network. I also don't think crypto will ever be understood well enough by the average pleb to fully unite and 'sovereignise' citizens to move outside the current system(s). Just like most of us still can't answer the question 'how does the internet actually work'? And thus we are still enslaved greatly by it and its operators. I see BTC thriving during trends of globalisation (by keeping fiat currencies honest and providing a frictionless bridge for trade, wealth stability and transfer) but suffering in periods of hard boarders, wars and nationalism (something that will be harder to get passed governments, surveillances and thus only leveraged by those with multiple passports and flexible living conditions).
The death cross is the 50 crossing under the 200 thats all. It doesnt predict something going to zero.
I just interpreted your "ultimate test" to be something approaching zero. Thanks for clarifying.
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The internet is cheap because there's value in the data. And the data is collatable because it's centralised. Just need some way to incentivise people to provide the service. Currently BTC miners are incentivised through rewards. It's open source software though so that part is free. I have no answers or scenarios of the future in regards to that, though much of the corporate world is moving toward a SAAS model.
And when mining is complete?
We've tried to look for an answer to that question previously. It was supposed to be your Christmas homework.
We've tried to look for an answer to that question previously. It was supposed to be your Christmas homework.
hahhaa my bad.. I got drunk and (more) fat. The salads and watery coffees really aren't floating the brain power
. Noted!
Good summaryBegins with a quick dive into the hype around NFTs (which are not crypto-currencies), that's always popular with the anti-crypto crowd. But anyway.
The creator embarks on a deep dive into BTC and others, making some valid points along the way which were objectively arrived at, but also some invalid points which are nothing more than his subjective opinion or just plain wrong.
Valid points:
1. The origins of BTC, why it was designed and to whom it may appeal.
2. Early adopters felt they were on the cusp of something revolutionary.
3. Demand for BTC saw it's price rise.
4. Attracted the interest of wealthy investors.
5. BTC's deflationary model makes it a poor substitute for fiat.
6. BTC has scaling issues.
7. Most people buy BTC as an asset.
Invalid points:
1. BTC is a religion and Nakamoto a Jesus-like figure.
2. A new currency system should not be controlled by an algorithm.
3. Mining is wasteful of energy.
4. BTC is not used to exchange value.
5. BTC is a "shell" of its former self.
6. BTC is a Ponzi.
Once he got to Ether I basically stopped, fast-forwarded, skimming through because I knew where he was headed. The creator of this video took about an hour to explain using both facts, conjecture and opinion that some nefarious individuals in society will use whatever means they can to make a quick buck off someone else. Holy crap Batman, who would've thought?
Now, anyone for a Michael Moore documentary?
Found it an interesting take, Couldn't watch it all but unfortunately stopped around the 28min mark as was interrupted...rudely by the missus In a time period of more scams,ruses and hacks in history combined I've always been sceptical...A digital currency invented by an anonymous source to promote "freedom" and a decentralized system in a world that restricts and controls almost every aspect of our lives. This system if once stood for something like everything else is quickly corrupted imo
If you've got technical flair it's a lot easier and more successful to design a crypto scam than many of the other scams out there, though there was about USD100 billion lost by investors who bought SPACS in 2021, I think FTX was about USD4billion. SPACS are regulated too.
"Decentralized Ponzi scheme." - Delicious. 
OT Netflix has a mini-docuseries on Madoff: The Monster of Wall Street, recommended.
"One of the major aspects of the Bernie Madoff case that most people don’t understand is how the Ponzi scheme he ran got so big, and how he managed to get so many investors — big and small — to buy in. You have to remember, the people who lost money to Madoff ranged from Florida retirees giving him their nest eggs to the former owners of the New York Mets. Madoff: The Monster Of Wall Street does a good job of explaining just what Madoff’s Ponzi scheme consisted of and how he kept it going."
https://decider.com/2023/01/04/madoff-the-monster-of-wall-street-netflix-review/
OT Netflix has a mini-docuseries on Madoff: The Monster of Wall Street, recommended.
"One of the major aspects of the Bernie Madoff case that most people don’t understand is how the Ponzi scheme he ran got so big, and how he managed to get so many investors — big and small — to buy in. You have to remember, the people who lost money to Madoff ranged from Florida retirees giving him their nest eggs to the former owners of the New York Mets. Madoff: The Monster Of Wall Street does a good job of explaining just what Madoff’s Ponzi scheme consisted of and how he kept it going."
https://decider.com/2023/01/04/madoff-the-monster-of-wall-street-netflix-review/
DWAC, a certain former President's:
The team at Bankless argue the case for the value in NFTs and why it will make copyright superfluous in the art world.
From an article:
The art as an investment market is different to the art for consumption market.
The physical object is just a "ledger" entry in the resume of the collective works and reputation of an artist. And owning one of those "ledger" entries is a bet on the future appreciation in value of the work.
NFTs bypass the physical ledger and provide greater and easier access to an artist's reputation.
https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p...ight-law?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
So basically NFTs have a real-world use case which allows us to easily buy "shares" in an artist's "creative enterprise".