Could silver be on a downward trend?

IMO, technically silver has been in a downtrend since it busted the low at around $32 in Sept 2012.
Although some may dispute this, trading the trend over the last 12 months has been very profitable.
 
wrcmad said:
IMO, technically silver has been in a downtrend since it busted the low at around $32 in Sept 2012.
Although some may dispute this, trading the trend over the last 12 months has been very profitable.
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I agree with you. Because those who bought at the lows could have sold well at the recent highs.
 
Pirocco said:
A trend continues until it ends.
Weird eh?
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Pir...what do you think of this analysis?

Cheers

H

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-g0QcL00EU[/youtube]
 
Interesting point there, Holdfast, the Elliott Wave...

I'm also wondering what Pirocco might think about it. I guess he's very busy at the moment...
 
Short covering is pushing silver up (while gold falls). The short covering could continue longer than most think.

It will be interesting to see what happens when USA markets open after their labor day weekend (first Monday of September).
 
Holdfast said:
Pir...what do you think of this analysis?
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This is what I think.

The premise that markets unfold in recognizable patterns contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, which states that prices cannot be predicted from market data such as moving averages and volume. By this reasoning, if successful market forecasts were possible, investors would buy (or sell) when the method predicted a price increase (or decrease), to the point that prices would rise (or fall) immediately, thus destroying the profitability and predictive power of the method. In efficient markets, knowledge of the Elliott Wave Principle among traders would lead to the disappearance of the very patterns they tried to anticipate, rendering the method, and all forms of technical analysis, useless.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle#Criticism
 
I remember last year when everyone thought $26 was a bottom...then we went down to $17 or whatever it was.

Saying that a downtrend has ended is a little foolish if you have been in the game for a while.


Silver can go much lower and it can also go much higher than expected.
 
systematic said:
i see precious metals as a barometer of the state of financial system
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So you think the financial system improved while metals were down?
 
willrocks said:
This is what I think.
The premise that markets unfold in recognizable patterns contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, .......... rendering the method, and all forms of technical analysis, useless.
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Kudos to you Willrocks. Stackers that argue the existence of efficient markets are a rare species. :D
 
willrocks said:
systematic said:
i see precious metals as a barometer of the state of financial system
Click to expand...

So you think the financial system improved while metals were down?
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No i dont. I suppose i could have used the term - confidence in the financial system. There are some big players in the markets and they can push prices around. When the news in the MSM and the industry gives the "market" jitters money tends to move. Its a racket driven by fear, greed and manipulation of information. The markets seem to be driven by confidence whether its real or not.
 
"Saying that a downtrend has ended is a little foolish if you have been in the game for a while."


I have been in the game since silver was a couple of bucks.

I think I will call it an uptrend :)


If I see a clear upward trendline and I see higher highs and higher lows - that will do me for an uptrend.

ditto downwards.

as far as I am concerned we bottomed on 28 june --------- now when this short term up finishes I have no idea - but, it is still firmly in progress.

the longer term downward correction of the last couple of years may be over -------- I for one am hoping it is - and day by day the odds are shortening.

I guess we will know when we are above $50

until then -------- be happy.
 
Ernster said:
I remember last year when everyone thought $26 was a bottom...then we went down to $17 or whatever it was.

Saying that a downtrend has ended is a little foolish if you have been in the game for a while.


Silver can go much lower and it can also go much higher than expected.
Click to expand...

Never dipped below 18 $...
 
The premise that markets unfold in recognizable patterns contradicts the efficient market hypothesis
Click to expand...

That makes the hypothesis quite weak then...so then there wont ever be an 'efficient market theory' or 'efficient market law'.
Just an eternal hypothesis.
 
Efficient market theory has been shot down in flames a long time ago.

If stocks going from $50 to a few cents in minutes and back again as quick isn't evidence enough, the 87 crash and recovery should be evidence enough. Otherwise the boards are littered with examples.

There can never be any such thing as an efficient market when it is a washing machine driven by humans.

Now on top of that it is driven by machines - programmed by humans who press the button in the morning then go fishing - efficient market theory depends on all knowledge being known at all times - how is that possible when the people who write the algos are winding in a Coral Trout and the rest of the mob are either watching porn or panicking about their latest lover?


T/A is also partly self fulfilling and far from bulletproof. Reading chicken guts is pretty good.

You can often read a pattern correctly, but you can be put on your bum pretty easily as well.

I think strong tech signals should always put the antanne up, but they are only pointers, never guarantees.

The best one can do is always a best guess and even then a black swan can poo on your parade at any moment.

Have a great night

Gazza.
 
if the market is super efficient, then there is no way to sell silver bar for the ridiculously high asking price.

its a good thing!

can we bring some black swans to the white swans territory and vice verse ? to make brown swans :)
 
Is it true white swans live in northern hemisphere and black swans in southern hemisphere. A woman from Denmark told me this. I've seen plenty of black swans in Australia, no white ones.
 
Wow, just looked up the top of the page, the ar$e is falling out of Gold tonight, sliding down AU$32.
Silver down AUD$1.05 in sympathy.

Edit 4.40am:
Gold down AUD$46 and finally levelling off, Silver down AUD$1.50 also levelling off at AU$25.45.
 
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