commodities and silver in stock market crash

K

knasten

New Member
I believe there are a few things on the horizon that could cause the value of stocks to go down in not to distant future. The main reasons why I think this is possible are:

-Raising of interest rates in china (and europe)

-numbers are pointing in the direction of an accelerating downturn in the chinese housing market

-the ending of QE2

-quarterly reports in june/july

What will happen to commodities, and silver in particular in an enviroment like this?
 
Get in quick if you beleive we are in for a downturn and load up on Index put option spreads to protect what you have now. Get the July 30 PUTS, for a modest 2-4% chunck of everything you own, you can protect it entirely, even profit if you buy more puts than you need to insure.
 
if this happens the A$ will go with it you will be relatively unaffected
 
a thrashing

it might be in China's interest for this to happen, if they can convert their Tbills into firesale mining and agricultural assets here and elsewhere
 
interesting thought about the chinese.. never seen it from that perspective

Do you think also the price of physical silver will be smashed in a downturn like this, and also would it be available for purchase at those lower prices?!

I have all my assets in physical silver, went all in at the end of 08. made some nominal gains from then. Thinking of taking out what I went in with in the first place, in terms of fiat, and allocate these into some kind of shorting business, lol.

Main goal to achieve more silver longer down the line..
 
BigBen said:
Get in quick if you beleive we are in for a downturn and load up on Index put option spreads to protect what you have now. Get the July 30 PUTS, for a modest 2-4% chunck of everything you own, you can protect it entirely, even profit if you buy more puts than you need to insure.
Click to expand...

I find this interesting... what website/company do you use to execute these trades?, would like to find out more. If i suspect a stockmarket/Pm downturn is approaching i will be offloading my bars (which can be re-bought easily enough) and keeping my coins (1. because i'm long in silver anyway 2. can't be bothered chasing them down again).
Regarding QEII, when it was first introduced the ending was open ended. Now we hear it ceases at the end of July. Is this date confirmed or rumour? If it's confirmed then it's pretty much a guarantee stocks and PM's will go down immediately after this and if the US increases interest rates (unlikely) then further down they will go again. Wouldn't mind getting puts with a lazy 5-10 grand then load up again after i cash in. Rather do that than sit on the sidelines watching the spot price and the value of my silver hoard drop, make the most of a bad situation if i can

Interesting responses to this guys question :)
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1445430/pg1
 
what u see is the truth chinese r big gamblers where do people put their money us euro yen pound oz gold silver property or shares interesting times ahead
 
The question is where do you put your cash after you pull it out of the markets and popped real estate?

All that's left is commodities.

For this reason I think we'll see commodities skyrocket even higher than when they were being speculated on towards the end of '07.

Then, when this behaviour drains away all the capital from the parts of the economy that really needs it (for expansion, renewal, innovation etc) factories, companies, and the economy will faulter and demand for these commodities will plummet with their price.

Gold should be fine because people would've re-learned it's safe-haven properties, silver will too despite it being an industrial commoditiy it's money value would've been re-learnt too. Also, 'you can't uninvent the wheel'...silver's new uses will increase demand across a broad base.

I also suspect Oil may also have earned a safe haven medal too. Even though demand and prices fell after '08 GFC, next time it's strategic importance can't be ignored after recent events....but that's just a personal feeling.
 
hiho said:
if this happens the A$ will go with it you will be relatively unaffected
Click to expand...

well done, somebody else is thinking about the interrelationship between different markets.

(However i would add that the net effect on silver could be effected, the net effect on gold much less so)
 
rbaggio said:
.. Or you could stay in cash, until buying opportunities appear?
Click to expand...

Exactly.

It's easy to get howled down mentioning cash around here but sometimes being cashed up and ready is the best place to be.
People will argue that cash is trash and inflation inflation inflation. The reality is that cash doesn't vanish as soon as it hits your account.

If the stock market and property market are tanking you're far better off sitting on your cash and bargain hunting than worrying about inflation.


C
 
rbaggio said:
.. Or you could stay in cash, until buying opportunities appear?
Click to expand...

the problem is we dont the know interrelationship between each PM and the movement in the AU$/US$.

Personally given the recent run up in silver i would say that the relative movement in silver would be greater than that in gold.

But someone holding cash will still face one overriding obsticle: the movement in PM prices between now and whenever this future crash occurs.

ie PM could move up further from current prices and then come down in U$ terms during a crash, but the price they come down to could still be higher than at todays prices.
 
Contrarian said:
rbaggio said:
.. Or you could stay in cash, until buying opportunities appear?
Click to expand...

Exactly.

It's easy to get howled down mentioning cash around here but sometimes being cashed up and ready is the best place to be.
People will argue that cash is trash and inflation inflation inflation. The reality is that cash doesn't vanish as soon as it hits your account.

If the stock market and property market are tanking you're far better off sitting on your cash and bargain hunting than worrying about inflation.


C
Click to expand...
+ 1 I couldnt agree more cash is my best friend
 
The Merchant said:
rbaggio said:
.. Or you could stay in cash, until buying opportunities appear?
Click to expand...

the problem is we dont the know interrelationship between each PM and the movement in the AU$/US$.

Personally given the recent run up in silver i would say that the relative movement in silver would be greater than that in gold.

But someone holding cash will still face one overriding obsticle: the movement in PM prices between now and whenever this future crash occurs.

ie PM could move up further from current prices and then come down in U$ terms during a crash, but the price they come down to could still be higher than at todays prices.
Click to expand...
you say that like PMs are the only thing to invest in .
 
Contrarian said:
rbaggio said:
.. Or you could stay in cash, until buying opportunities appear?
Click to expand...

Exactly.

It's easy to get howled down mentioning cash around here but sometimes being cashed up and ready is the best place to be.
People will argue that cash is trash and inflation inflation inflation. The reality is that cash doesn't vanish as soon as it hits your account.

If the stock market and property market are tanking you're far better off sitting on your cash and bargain hunting than worrying about inflation.


C
Click to expand...


theres cash and then theres cash.

If we are talking some extra cash held on the sidelines, then yes i TOTALLY agree with you. If we are talking about transferring all of our wealth into cash to take advantage of some future possible opportunity, then no i dont agree at all.
 
renovator said:
The Merchant said:
rbaggio said:
.. Or you could stay in cash, until buying opportunities appear?
Click to expand...

the problem is we dont the know interrelationship between each PM and the movement in the AU$/US$.

Personally given the recent run up in silver i would say that the relative movement in silver would be greater than that in gold.

But someone holding cash will still face one overriding obsticle: the movement in PM prices between now and whenever this future crash occurs.

ie PM could move up further from current prices and then come down in U$ terms during a crash, but the price they come down to could still be higher than at todays prices.
Click to expand...
you say that like PMs are the only thing to invest in .
Click to expand...

For those that really know their stuff about mining shares, sure include PM mining shares. But i prefer the straight PM.

Commodities are the current investable cycle so why would i be elsewhere. I dont know boo about soft commodities, so i limit myself to PM.

When the US gets its debt under control, then i will consider other investments.
 
Clawhammer said:
The Merchant said:
When the US gets its debt under control,....
Click to expand...

(CH places index finger to bottom lip), 'thinks "this thread might be going for a while" :lol:
Click to expand...

haha exactly, so why do i need to worry about looking elsewhere to invest.

Its not up to me, i am not the guy in charge. All i can do is look after my own affairs.
 
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