Coin of the year... Return on investment

Aureus, there's no good evidence at all for the absurd claim you make.


The truth is, if you know what and when to buy and when to sell, virtually any coin could be sold for a profit.



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mmissinglink said:
Aureus, there's no good evidence at all for the absurd claim you make.


The truth is, if you know what and when to buy and when to sell, virtually any coin could be sold for a profit.



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It's not absurd, most long time stackers here recognize semi numismatics as the best form of investment. Relative newcomers like yourself (not an insult so don't bite again for no reason) would do well to listen and learn from people that have years on you.
You can get lucky (ie buying a redback) or unlucky (buying a clownfish) taking chances, but ultimately, the tried and true series always win.

There wouldn't be many, if any, high relief coin in existence that will stand the test of time - pandas, lunars and kooks will. You can say that's absurd all you want, you'd be wrong.
 
mmissinglink said:
Aureus, there's no good evidence at all for the absurd claim you make.


The truth is, if you know what and when to buy and when to sell, virtually any coin could be sold for a profit.



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There Is lots of evidence that name brand coins are a great investment... How can one say a new fad is gonna stand the test time if time has not gone by? I was into high relief last winter and got out of it. I can a lot of the time buy 5-10x as many semi Numis as some of these relief coins. Let's do some math... So I got these goats at 25$ each and say I buy 8 for 200$. And say I buy the New Odin coin at 200$. Say the goats only go to 40$ which every other lunar series coin has... That's 120$ profit. And thats at today's silver price(never mind if it ever went to say 40/oz.) now that same Odin coin would have to consistency sel at 320$ for the same profit.(even if silver went to 40$ I don't think it's value would go up much). To me it seems like a gamble buying stuff like that. One can be almost certain about a tried and true series, all these new high reliefs in my oppion are a gamble... But that why we have opinions, because there not all the same.
 
Eh, I'd say at least this one has done rather well & stood the test of time..


14291_hr_peace.jpg
 
Aureus, there's no good evidence at all that your claim is true. Also, long term could mean anything to anyone and to someone who is 18 years old buying coins today, it certainly could be a different definition than to someone who is 65 and buying.

Also, it's a ridiculous logical fallacy ( ad verecundiam ) to assert that because I have not been stacking as long as you claim to be stacking that therefore I don't know better than you. An argument must be logical without the use of appeals to authority or other logical fallacies.

Your flat disc milky kooks for the past nearly decade have been minted in the hundreds of thousands every year, so in 100 years, many could be easily seen as melting pot fodder along with many ASE's and SCML's whereas my much higher quality high relief Odin, Chinese medals, and other high relief low mintage beauties would much better stand the test of time as collectors generally treasure beauty and rarity over massive volumes of inferior quality products.


I own some Perth Mint bullion Lunars, Koalas, and Kooks but they are nothing special (especially with their milk spots) and if I get spot silver for them some day, I won't say that I am terribly surprised.



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Shippeevt said:
Gatito Bandito said:
Eh, I'd say at least this one has done rather well & stood the test of time..


http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/14291_hr_peace.jpg
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Yea, I would agree! But that's a peace dollar not some new coin from an unknown mint...what was the initial sale price? I'm willing to guess it wasnt 10-13x spot.
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The truth is, it can be well argued that any modern Perth Mint bullion coin is over priced especially if you are paying a penny or more over spot for it, especially true for flat disc coins like Kooks that may likely develop milky spots over the years.

Sadly it seems, some folks here like Shippeevt make the terrible mistake of comparing a modern bullion coin like a flat disc Kook to an old circulating silver coin. That's like comparing feathers with nuclear bombs....it's totally dishonest. You know this is true because people like Shippeevt only decry with what seems to be either dishonesty or ignorance the rarest of modern collector coins that may indeed have an original mint price of 10-13X spot while ignoring flat disc coins like Kooks that are always priced above spot upon initial offering from the issuing mint. By the same measure, that a flat disc coin is more than spot means that it is over priced.


I'll tell you what, if you want to spend your money on (milky today or several years down the road) flat disc Kooks or other over priced bullion, go for it. You have not made a convincing argument at all that these will be a good ROI for the "long term" (whatever that means to someone)...it's all speculative and the evidence is anecdotal. I don't claim to know whether in 100 years a Kook, (one of half a million produced) that turns milky will be more desired than a much higher quality, high relief, low mintage coin or medal, but I do believe that 100 years won't change the fact that collectors will still value many high quality and low mintage beauties as they do today.

Oh, and I do not consider all "high relief" coins to be of equal quality so while for some I might pay considerably more than spot, for others I might not even consider buying because I don't want to reward poor design/quality.



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guys there is no need to be so worked up with silver coins. personally to me:

bullion coins (w/ annual design change) are like bluechips. they appreciate slowly and they rarely get overhyped on online forums. Cheap to buy, cheap to hold, if spotted just get rid of them at spot.

numismatics like high relief and rounds are like penny stocks. they appreciate mostly due to hype but hypes die down very quickly. 1 year later collectors will still go for the next kook/lunar but for those numismatics... most of us tend to forget them over time.

Back to the original question on ROI: personally I find numis has better returns if you bought at introductory price and sell them when they are hyped all over the Internet. But if you plan to hold your "stock" for years I say bullion w/ annual design change is a better bet when it comes to ROI.
 
yrh0413 said:
guys there is no need to be so worked up with silver coins. personally to me:

bullion coins (w/ annual design change) are like bluechips. they appreciate slowly and they rarely get overhyped on online forums. Cheap to buy, cheap to hold, if spotted just get rid of them at spot.

numismatics like high relief and rounds are like penny stocks. they appreciate mostly due to hype but hypes die down very quickly. 1 year later collectors will still go for the next kook/lunar but for those numismatics... most of us tend to forget them over time.

Back to the original question on ROI: personally I find numis has better returns if you bought at introductory price and sell them when they are hyped all over the Internet. But if you plan to hold your "stock" for years I say bullion w/ annual design change is a better bet when it comes to ROI.
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Are that all or majority of the numics as you say after "HYPE"in internet the value will remain and not increase ?

Can you explain more in details?

I do not understood your statement fully.
 
andrewlee10 said:
Are that all or majority of the numics as you say after "HYPE"in internet the value will remain and not increase ?

Can you explain more in details?

I do not understood your statement fully.
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Look at the redback spider, 2014 proof Brit, those glass insert architectural coins... what's the market demand after the initial hype pushing their price tag up high?
Fast forward to year 2015, are there still buyers for redback spider at $1,500? Or 2014 First Strike Gold Kennedy coin at $9,000? Your guess is as good as mine.

Not forgetting for every one rare coin that outperforms, there could be ten that severely underperform.
 
yrh0413 said:
andrewlee10 said:
Are that all or majority of the numics as you say after "HYPE"in internet the value will remain and not increase ?

Can you explain more in details?

I do not understood your statement fully.
Click to expand...

Look at the redback spider, 2014 proof Brit, those glass insert architectural coins... what's the market demand after the initial hype pushing their price tag up high?
Fast forward to year 2015, are there still buyers for redback spider at $1,500? Or 2014 First Strike Gold Kennedy coin at $9,000? Your guess is as good as mine.

Not forgetting for every one rare coin that outperforms, there could be ten that severely underperform.
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You are not being clear about which 2014 proof Britannia you are referring to but if you are referring to the 5 oz, just look at the 2 most recent sales on eBay....both in August of this year (2015). The one that sold most recently was offered at like USD $1600 for the raw one and an offer (arguably fairly close to that amount) was accepted: http://www.ebay.com/itm/2014-UK-BRI...hash=item2c9a1195cb:m:mqGYyXr5kD4dHZvYkXBOC0Q

Issue price of that coin in July 2014: USD $576. Was there a healthy increase from issue price to 15 months later? Yes, of course.


As for hype, by far and away, the most unwarranted hype I've seen on a regular basis is for Perth Mint products. Not that none of their products deserve praise, but virtually everything they produce, both the utter crap and the high quality items seems to be hyped far beyond anything else. It could be argued then that the premiums on many of these items are sucker premiums and were it not for the unparalleled hype, the sales would be considerably less on some or many of the products.


I make no bones about the fact that over the past 3 years I have bought some Lunars, Koalas, and Kooks and I have no regrets about it. But in 100 years, non circulating flat disc bullion coins might be as popular as the plague. No one has a crystal ball to know either way. I never liked the quality of the Gods of Olympus high relief coins, but maybe it will be coins like that which, in 100 years, will be seen as worthy of paying top dollar for. If our children are the one's who take advantage of the return on our investment (because we are deceased), isn't that still ROI?



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mmissinglink said:
Aureus, there's no good evidence at all that your claim is true. Also, long term could mean anything to anyone and to someone who is 18 years old buying coins today, it certainly could be a different definition than to someone who is 65 and buying.

Also, it's a ridiculous logical fallacy ( ad verecundiam ) to assert that because I have not been stacking as long as you claim to be stacking that therefore I don't know better than you. An argument must be logical without the use of appeals to authority or other logical fallacies.

Your flat disc milky kooks for the past nearly decade have been minted in the hundreds of thousands every year, so in 100 years, many could be easily seen as melting pot fodder along with many ASE's and SCML's whereas my much higher quality high relief Odin, Chinese medals, and other high relief low mintage beauties would much better stand the test of time as collectors generally treasure beauty and rarity over massive volumes of inferior quality products.


I own some Perth Mint bullion Lunars, Koalas, and Kooks but they are nothing special (especially with their milk spots) and if I get spot silver for them some day, I won't say that I am terribly surprised.



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mmissinglink said:
As for hype, by far and away, the most unwarranted hype I've seen on a regular basis is for Perth Mint products. Not that none of their products deserve praise, but virtually everything they produce, both the utter crap and the high quality items seems to be hyped far beyond anything else. It could be argued then that the premiums on many of these items are sucker premiums and were it not for the unparalleled hype, the sales would be considerably less on some or many of the products.
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My suggestion to you is to seriously consider learning about semi numismatics, start with kooks and lunars then delve into the insanity that is Pandas. Based on the above it isn't your strong suite.
I say that without any malice, if you're going to be in this game for the foreseeable future you need to know their value and importance as an investment. You are not going to make money in this game without them, and that really goes to anyone who buys into mini series, random proofs and high reliefs.
You have over 30 years of history that proves this with pandas and 16-25 years of history that cements the Perth mints offerings as some of the best investor grade bullion money can buy. You can't turn a blind eye to that.


Ultimately if you want to keep calling me stupid, ridiculous and uneducated go for it, you won't learn anything doing that though.
 
yrh0413 said:
andrewlee10 said:
Are that all or majority of the numics as you say after "HYPE"in internet the value will remain and not increase ?

Can you explain more in details?

I do not understood your statement fully.
Click to expand...

Look at the redback spider, 2014 proof Brit, those glass insert architectural coins... what's the market demand after the initial hype pushing their price tag up high?
Fast forward to year 2015, are there still buyers for redback spider at $1,500? Or 2014 First Strike Gold Kennedy coin at $9,000? Your guess is as good as mine.

Not forgetting for every one rare coin that outperforms, there could be ten that severely underperform.
Click to expand...

Ah I understood now. Probably those are part of the numics BUT NOT all and majority. I did bought colour coin from Perth mints, NZ mints, Pacific Island, Royal Mints and definite MCC.

Generally, I buy at release price for those new coins/medals. I will chase back some item of the series that I like at appropriate price after doing my homework. So far, I sold 30% (in term of dollar) of my Western countries mints numics which around USD5K. I loss a bit money in 2 coins and all other I have breakeven and earn some money. I earn around 12% in total. However, it took me around 1 year plus for selling it. I hope the balance of 70% of those western countries mints numics will not loss money. I keep those as collection rather consider as investment.

I did invested into 1oz Perth Mints S2 Lunar BUT only 2 set. PM S2 KG lunar 1 set. 2014 1 oz majority of the countries legal tender bullion 4 set. In term of spot rate buyback price I did loss money. However, I treat the KG as stoppage of the door AND decoration if it is in loss or yet to get right buyers. I buy the 2014 1 oz bullion just for fun and know it definite loss money if spot not up 25-30%. If really thinking invest physical gold is better liquidity than physical silver in Singapore and Malaysia. If really want invest to silver WHY NOT paper instead of physical which is much easy to liquidate.

I have silver panda and gold panda either omp or/and slab. I make profit for panda especially when the china coin online electronic platform is hot BUT not now. I buy back a lot in the market and sell back to china and Singapore dealers directly. However, you face the risk of custom in china if big quantity which Barsenault has problem with it as experience.

Some of my NGC silver panda do loss money with current market value due to the low spot and I am buying at high price during my learning curve.

The 5 oz and kg panda are all making money for the past 2 years even I sell much lower than others. Margin around 15-35% because I slab some of the coins so PF70 give you much higher margin.

I did buyback some items majority MCC and little bit western mints coins from collectors and sell which give margin ranging from 5% - 50% depending on the buyback price. I only buyback western mints coins when there is ready customer. MCC buyback depends on the market and cashflow.

Another venture that I think off is silver panda NGC slab. I buy it at USD27 and send grading which fee is 10 plus postage is around 4. Total cost is USD41. 2015 silver panda NGC MS 69 sell at USD42 by panda America in Singapore, MS70 at USD63. The current years silver always score at MS69 minimum and at least 60% MS70 or even higher. If I send one sheet to grade 40% MS69 which is 12 pieces I profit USD12 and 18 pcs MS70 I profit USD396. Total profit is USD408 minus 60 other cost incur which easily USD 348. it is around 27% =( 348/{(41*30) + 60}.

Bullion has bullion buyer and numic has numic buyer. otherwise the market will not function. The supply will create if there is demand. How to make profit is depending on your skills and many other factors .... same seller selling the same coin one can sell fast at better margin BUT another NOT. there are too many real life example.

BUT I will say not all numics loss money and NOT all are "HYPE"

owww I might be out of topic a bit by giving example of numic. It is BULLION ROI
 
... this is the typical product life-cycle for typical numis coin VS semi-numis :lol: :lol: :lol:

22112852059_2aca61e1c2_o.jpg



I'm not siding whether bullion or numis gives better returns, to me:

bullion is like timed/fixed deposit. Hold them long enough and you get your rewards (may not be the best returns but you still get something)
numis is like stock trading. You bought the right stock you ride it up and cash out when everyone is talking about it. Bought the wrong stock? Good luck.
 
yrh0413 said:
... this is the typical product life-cycle for typical numis coin VS semi-numis :lol: :lol: :lol:

https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5632/22112852059_2aca61e1c2_o.jpg


I'm not siding whether bullion or numis gives better returns, to me:

bullion is like timed/fixed deposit. Hold them long enough and you get your rewards (may not be the best returns but you still get something)
numis is like stock trading. You bought the right stock you ride it up and cash out when everyone is talking about it. Bought the wrong stock? Good luck.
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Totally agreed the times deposit and shares description of it.

The chart does not despite all numics. Some can just up up up but few years only able to sell it or not even have buyer. So can be down down down or stagnant after release.

Bullion also can be different with every types but over stretch a long time it is still earn your marginal profit if spot not down and you are not selling. If u buy at peak 21 spot in few years back u sell at 16 now. Let say maple bullion you loss or gain ? So this chart is not fully right and also do not indicate the assumption. The worst is it indicate timeline of month. 1 oz silver premium is around 20 to 36 % when you sell back to dealer means spot or small % below spot if maple. Other like panda might be slight above spot or below market value. If both sell to collector which price also diff. If cannot sell to collector or spot not up 20% within the timeframe of 1 years as question in the thread. Is loss or stable up like the chart you show ?
 
By the way I also not lobby and support bullion is better than numics or numics is better than bullion. :lol:

I just share my experinces. Everyone has diff experiences. Some of my friend loss a lot money in both numics and bullion because they buy at peak. The worst is it take long times for them to sell it since they are collectors not seller who have more sell network. I did help them to sell some to charge admin fee of 5 to 10 % depending on the item. But they still have a lot and not manage to sell off because they buy at very peak at spot rate.
 
regarding kooks, I bought during the remint craze. APMEX had a ton of them to sell. Of course this is when spot was a lot higher. I have told the story before. I unloaded all my silver eagles at the time...close to 2,000 ounces. I invest my money into kooks. years 1992 - 2007. Mostly 1998, 2003, 2006, 1996, and other years (lowest mintage years 85K - 120K) Now with spot sitting between 14 - 16, I'm happy with the kooks standing the test of time. Granted, as Andy said, if I had to liqudate 100 oz of the 1 oz kooks, it wouldn't be easy. But if I was in no rush, those 1 oz will make me a good profit, EVEN with spot so low. And I bought those kooks in the low 30's. Imagine if I held on to those eagles. talk about being under water. or if I listened to the pumptars like Morgan, Turk, Duane, etc...that the turn was coming, and we'll never see 35, 30, 26, 20, etc...remember those clowns? and here we've sat with spot at 14 - 16 for quite a long time, and we may have another push down below 14 (???). I'll stick with my semi-numi play, and my collectibles (both early year and modern chinese medals/coins).
 
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