I'm in at 18.5c - I'm not considering "topping up" given the performance. I have a mate who keeps banging on about how much money he's made on Isonea - thinking of just ripping it out and buying some bitcoins!
Cobar (CCU)
- Thread starter gelxi
- Start date
@finicky : I feel still 95% in control - as long as I don't use debt to invest and keep accumulating at these low prices.(The 5% is allowed for any Black Swan event.) Bollinger Bands inherently tells us that when price pushes against one end of the band, it will inevitably rebound and hit the other end of the band. Dec '10, Feb '11, Apr '11, the price shot outside of the upper band, and the next thing you know... the price has moved towards the lower band. The price will try to find equilibrium! 
The only risk I see now is that there could be a possible share dilution in the next few months if the price of silver goes lower than AUD$21/oz and stay there for a period of time. My strategy will still be to continue accumulating even if that happens - I'm taking the risk head-on mainly because I believe silver price cannot sustain a price below AUD$21/oz for too long. In fact I believe it will go beyond AUD$30 again by 2015 if not 2014 due to technicals and fundamentals (inflation and silver demand driven by photovoltaics). Meanwhile, I'm planning to go to the AGM next month to strongly request that CCU significantly lower the salary of directors/senior execs until they help CCU to achieve its first profitable quarter - this should be the first step taken by the company before even trying to take on more loan or capital raise! Hope I get some support during the meeting!
The only risk I see now is that there could be a possible share dilution in the next few months if the price of silver goes lower than AUD$21/oz and stay there for a period of time. My strategy will still be to continue accumulating even if that happens - I'm taking the risk head-on mainly because I believe silver price cannot sustain a price below AUD$21/oz for too long. In fact I believe it will go beyond AUD$30 again by 2015 if not 2014 due to technicals and fundamentals (inflation and silver demand driven by photovoltaics). Meanwhile, I'm planning to go to the AGM next month to strongly request that CCU significantly lower the salary of directors/senior execs until they help CCU to achieve its first profitable quarter - this should be the first step taken by the company before even trying to take on more loan or capital raise! Hope I get some support during the meeting!
gelxi said:
Averaging down on a speccie - super bad idea usually. Learn by pain?
Example: Apex Minerals (a gold stock), no outlier months yet failed to get back to the mid-line let alone the upper band. Plenty of others. If a company is failing you'll never get that rebound. Don't know if CCU is failing totally but room in the chart for it.
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AXM&E=ASX&N=639749
[imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_axm_defunct.gif]
Good effort but they haven't volunteered like SLR
silvermernda
New Member
Cobar at 10 cent !! is it a good buy?well i brought my first shares 5000 at the 10 cent,
any opinions if the 10 cent could be good buy?
any opinions if the 10 cent could be good buy?
MyNamesNotBen
New Member
Is it a good buy? IDK... CCU needs 2 things to happen if it is to go up again:
1- Higher silver price. They aren't going to break even at current prices unless they consistently produce ~200,000oz per month (i think). This won't happen until early next year (once again, I think).
2- Management need to stop being f*ckwits. From what I have seen this is unlikely. Despite their abysmal performance the directors want to give themselves a pay rise.! They also hold very little (if any) shares so it really makes you wonder if they even care about the company at all.. hint: They don't.
Their financial position is worrying. Lots of debt and loans due to be paid this quarter. I can't remember the numbers but it aint good. there will probably be another capital raising soon.
If you're buying CCU all you're hoping for is a jump in the silver price because the company itself is going nowhere.
1- Higher silver price. They aren't going to break even at current prices unless they consistently produce ~200,000oz per month (i think). This won't happen until early next year (once again, I think).
2- Management need to stop being f*ckwits. From what I have seen this is unlikely. Despite their abysmal performance the directors want to give themselves a pay rise.! They also hold very little (if any) shares so it really makes you wonder if they even care about the company at all.. hint: They don't.
Their financial position is worrying. Lots of debt and loans due to be paid this quarter. I can't remember the numbers but it aint good. there will probably be another capital raising soon.
If you're buying CCU all you're hoping for is a jump in the silver price because the company itself is going nowhere.
MyNamesNotBen
New Member
Gelxi, Goldpelican are you guys still holding? What are your thoughts on the company at the moment?
silvermernda
New Member
^^^ just want some thought on where people might think cobar is heading,
why bother posting if you have nothing to add?
hmmmm!!?dont understand what was the point of that!
why bother posting if you have nothing to add?
hmmmm!!?dont understand what was the point of that!
millededge
Active Member
I still like some aspects of CCU but I don't see much chance of a decent gain for some time, unless POS picks up substantially.
Apologies Silvermernda, I did not mean to offend. I was under the assumption that you had made a purchase and now were looking for confirmation that the purchase was a sound one.
CCU as not Ben states, is suffering from Management issues (this seems to be quite common with these mining companies). That's not to say that the SP can't spring back to the .20c range quite quickly. If it did, I think I'd sell half and have a free carry (while the precious metals prices are not advancing).
CCU as not Ben states, is suffering from Management issues (this seems to be quite common with these mining companies). That's not to say that the SP can't spring back to the .20c range quite quickly. If it did, I think I'd sell half and have a free carry (while the precious metals prices are not advancing).
millededge
Active Member
CCU is sitting at near a major low, like countless commodity companies now, in the meat grinder.
http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/Ch...&pma1=0&pma2=0&volumeInd=9&vma=0&TimeFrame=M5
I watched my grubstake cut in two then multiply many times before exit, near the top according to the linked graph.
I think silver's days are done for at least a year.
http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/Ch...&pma1=0&pma2=0&volumeInd=9&vma=0&TimeFrame=M5
I watched my grubstake cut in two then multiply many times before exit, near the top according to the linked graph.
I think silver's days are done for at least a year.
Bargain Hunter
Active Member
I know this sounds harsh but anyone who bought this stock deserves to lose money. I don't know why silverstackers members seem to be enamoured with underperforming (often loss making mining companies). Even Rick Rule when visiting Australia said 80% of our mining sector is valueless. Unless you are a geologist, mining engineer, etc good lucking picking the few winning mining stocks.
If you look at Aussiestockforums the most successful retail investors (same applies to professionals) are value investors who invest in small and medium sized profitable growth companies e.g. Credit Corp, Dominoes Pizza, Flight Centre, Seek, FlexiGroup, Monadelphous, Magellan Financial Group, Mcmillan Shakespeare, Flexigroup, Retail Food Group, etc.
Its so much easier to make money when you invest in companies that are already profitable, and that grow their profits over time.
Why are most silverstackers members obsessed with investing in money pitts. Just because you think gold, silver, or other commodity prices will rise doesn't mean a mining company will do well. Most of them are run by idiots or under - capitalized or waste all profits on further unsuccessful exploration.
If you look at Aussiestockforums the most successful retail investors (same applies to professionals) are value investors who invest in small and medium sized profitable growth companies e.g. Credit Corp, Dominoes Pizza, Flight Centre, Seek, FlexiGroup, Monadelphous, Magellan Financial Group, Mcmillan Shakespeare, Flexigroup, Retail Food Group, etc.
Its so much easier to make money when you invest in companies that are already profitable, and that grow their profits over time.
Why are most silverstackers members obsessed with investing in money pitts. Just because you think gold, silver, or other commodity prices will rise doesn't mean a mining company will do well. Most of them are run by idiots or under - capitalized or waste all profits on further unsuccessful exploration.
I agree BH. I've got a small stake in Medusa otherwise I don't own any mining shares and don't intend to until there's true signs of a turn around. The rest of my share portfolio consists of healthcare, telecommunications, energy and consumer discretionary
All I can say is, I am convinced of CCU's ability to turnaround the company from the past mistakes they made. In fact they are already on their way to nameplate as their production trend is suggesting. I believe the majority risk CCU holders like myself are taking on purely lies with the price of silver. The correlation between the two is very strong, naturally. I know that if I get into CCU, I am taking on leverage on the price of silver, and leverage cuts both ways! Game plan still remains the same for me : Patience.
silvermernda
New Member
ouch cobar down to new low 8 cents,
i should have listen too you finkyyou are a very smart man.
i should have listen too you finky
you are a very smart man.silver kook
Active Member
Last 5 weeks CCU down 42%. At same time ARD (Argent Minerals) up 90%.
Trying to get above 8c
This is the sort of mining company that I really hate. Management gets paid $160,000-$470,000 salary packages ... loan facility.... bridging loan ... will be cash flow positive one day. All going on for 7 years or more on nothing but an implied promise. Company update comes out and there's this strained effort to squeeze some positives out of the creaky old thing: If the last part of November was stretched to a month that'd be 200,000 ozs a month rate! Weakly rising graphs of silver recovery. Two years now, no injuries! Better to hear there'd been a helicopter crash involving the management.
The only important bits are at the end.
"Chief Executive Officer said, "We remain targeted at silver production of 200,000oz per month by early 2014 at
which level we expect to be cash positive." But that's just an unaccountable promise
Magna Resources Corporation ....... bridging loan ... has been extended from 31 December 2013 to 30 June 2014.
Company is in discussion with its other lender, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, regarding the structure
of repayments under its finance facilities.
This is the sort of mining company that I really hate. Management gets paid $160,000-$470,000 salary packages ... loan facility.... bridging loan ... will be cash flow positive one day. All going on for 7 years or more on nothing but an implied promise. Company update comes out and there's this strained effort to squeeze some positives out of the creaky old thing: If the last part of November was stretched to a month that'd be 200,000 ozs a month rate! Weakly rising graphs of silver recovery. Two years now, no injuries! Better to hear there'd been a helicopter crash involving the management.
The only important bits are at the end.
"Chief Executive Officer said, "We remain targeted at silver production of 200,000oz per month by early 2014 at
which level we expect to be cash positive." But that's just an unaccountable promise
Magna Resources Corporation ....... bridging loan ... has been extended from 31 December 2013 to 30 June 2014.
Company is in discussion with its other lender, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, regarding the structure
of repayments under its finance facilities.
I exited them a while back.
AngloSaxon
Active Member
Good news on their sales of silver dore today.
Currently, 2.30pm, share price up 43% from the opening price. Was up over 50% a few hours ago. If only the silver spot price would allow this to be a turnaround.
Currently, 2.30pm, share price up 43% from the opening price. Was up over 50% a few hours ago. If only the silver spot price would allow this to be a turnaround.
AngloSaxon
Active Member
Aaaaand sliding back towards the opening value as people jump ship.