Clive M: A bloodbath is believed to be imminent in the silver market

[Ronnie 666]

^^^ You might be right? :/

I'd be better off sticking to a fully exposed, relatively illiquid long position in phys with no exit strategy or risk stop.

Now, let me just check how that has been performing this morning? Hang on, over the lat 12 months? mmmmm.......

How about the last 12 years?

Agreed and even in the past 5 years ?
To short the PM markets at a time of unprecedented global money printing is foolish at best, misleading at worst.
Yes short term pullbacks are common but a bloodbath - come on who can take that seriously facing what we just saw happen at the Fed reserve, The ECB, and RBA?
Keep stacking, be happy and don't worry - where is that Reggie Perrin ?

 

[thatguy]

^^^ You might be right? :/

I'd be better off sticking to a fully exposed, relatively illiquid long position in phys with no exit strategy or risk stop.

Now, let me just check how that has been performing this morning? Hang on, over the lat 12 months? mmmmm.......

How about the last 12 years?

Agreed and even in the past 5 years ?
To short the PM markets at a time of unprecedented global money printing is foolish at best, misleading at worst.
Yes short term pullbacks are common but a bloodbath - come on who can take that seriously facing what we just saw happen at the Fed reserve, The ECB, and RBA?
Keep stacking, be happy and don't worry - where is that Reggie Perrin ?

Do you seriously think with all this money printing and a desire to squander as much USD as possible that the USG does not have the will or the means to drive PMs to wherever it wants? Does anyone really think the banks get this cash will no stipulations on what they must do for the privilege?

 

[wrcmad]

How about the last 12 years?

Over the last 12 years I made more from trading shares than I ever could have from holding physical silver.

Agreed and even in the past 5 years ?
To short the PM markets at a time of unprecedented global money printing is foolish at best, misleading at worst.
Yes short term pullbacks are common but a bloodbath - come on who can take that seriously facing what we just saw happen at the Fed reserve, The ECB, and RBA?
Keep stacking, be happy and don't worry - where is that Reggie Perrin ?

I agree that a bloodbath is overstating it somewhat, and don't really expect that myself.
I am happy stacking, but enjoy the additional income from trading my holding using paper and adding the proceeds to my stack - see, who said phys doesn't pay dividends?

 

[finicky]

Well to me the only thing C Maund has got going for his argument is the big overweight short position of the Commercials. The COT 'reports' are something that I've left out of my factoring because for me its just a bar graph that I've found hard to interpret.

I'm expecting a pullback, but why should I expect a "bloodbath"? How do I know where the fricken Commercials have got there short positions set at? Maybe they will start taking profits at 30 bucks - if it gets there!

C Maund takes the Sept collapse as a comparison. Well what else was happening around Sept 2011 - do you remember? I don't. But here are some differences you can read right off the chart:

1/ Up to Sept 2011 the simplest momentum indicators had been showing for 4 months that a significant lower high was likely being made in the price. This time there is only a little divergence showing up over a couple weeks, suggesting no more to me than a pullback

2/ The break above long term downtrend resistance, as well as the 'golden cross' of the 50 day moving average crossing above the 200 dma, were conditions not there back in Sept 2011. We're supposed to accept that a 'bloodbath' to come has been preceded by major positive breakout signals?

 

[SA@YPS]

Keep in mind, Clive is only recommending selling paper silver/gold, not physical. He always advocates that physical be bought and held, not traded.

 

[Ronnie 666]

I heard a great analogy of paper silver and gold to the real world. This was on Patriot Radio Newshour. You go down to the gun shop to buy a receipt for a gun. You don't want to be bothered by storage issues, licensing payments or training at the gun range so a receipt is much easier. Then one night and 3 drug crazed heavily tattooed men break into your house. You grab the receipt and say to them. Hold it right there. I have in my hand a recept for a 44 magnum the most powerful handgun in the world. Lets see how far that gets you .. One day you will suddenly need real things with value and likewise these paper gold and silver receipts will be useless and valueless.

 

[thatguy]

I heard a great analogy of paper silver and gold to the real world. This was on Patriot Radio Newshour. You go down to the gun shop to buy a receipt for a gun. You don't want to be bothered by storage issues, licensing payments or training at the gun range so a receipt is much easier. Then one night and 3 drug crazed heavily tattooed men break into your house. You grab the receipt and say to them. Hold it right there. I have in my hand a recept for a 44 magnum the most powerful handgun in the world. Lets see how far that gets you .. One day you will suddenly need real things with value and likewise these paper gold and silver receipts will be useless and valueless.

But it is not an either or... most traders I know have a stack of physical. In fact the reason I got into trading was to hedge my physical stack

 

[wrcmad]

But it is not an either or... most traders I know have a stack of physical. In fact the reason I got into trading was to hedge my physical stack

+1.
I hedge my stack on pullbacks - use profits to add physical.
I add paper to my stack on run ups - use profits to add physical.

 

[Ronnie 666]

I heard a great analogy of paper silver and gold to the real world. This was on Patriot Radio Newshour. You go down to the gun shop to buy a receipt for a gun. You don't want to be bothered by storage issues, licensing payments or training at the gun range so a receipt is much easier. Then one night and 3 drug crazed heavily tattooed men break into your house. You grab the receipt and say to them. Hold it right there. I have in my hand a recept for a 44 magnum the most powerful handgun in the world. Lets see how far that gets you .. One day you will suddenly need real things with value and likewise these paper gold and silver receipts will be useless and valueless.

But it is not an either or... most traders I know have a stack of physical. In fact the reason I got into trading was to hedge my physical stack

In my situation is is very much an either or position. Most money managers hate the idea of PM but if you insist they will advise buying 5-10% in paper gold or silver. They will never advise physical. In fact they will think you are crazy to suggest physical. If you are buying paper gold or silver to gamble with - that is fine. A hedge ? ? not so sure. Ask Gerald Celente he had 100K invested in a futures account with MF global. That was his hedge that took a hit when Mr Corzine ran away with $3.2 Billion and emptied client accounts. I have seen gold paper certificates used to defraud clients time and time again. This is nothing new. The one case that Australians may not know about is the South African Gold Coin exchange in the 1970s. They stored your krugerrands and issued certificates. As predicted when the crash came in gold in the 1980s the certificates did not match up and the vault was empty ? Surprise !!!

 

[wrcmad]

Well to me the only thing C Maund has got going for his argument is the big overweight short position of the Commercials. The COT 'reports' are something that I've left out of my factoring because for me its just a bar graph that I've found hard to interpret.

I agree, I can't wrap my head around this reasoning. He says an enormous amount of commercial short positions show the pro's know what is going to happen - price down. What is the trigger foe the fall? A punt on the USD?

If commercials are already overweight short positions, and the price has held it's ground to now (or actually risen in the current case), it suggests to me that - given these shorts have to be covered - price pressure will be to the up side.??

Price has risen as the shorts have been piled on...... when unwound, will this not serve to exacerbate the effect of upwards price pressure?

If my naive logic is wrong, can someone please show me where?

 

[wrcmad]

Ask Gerald Celente he had 100K invested in a futures account with MF global.

And that is the difference.

Invest/hold in physical. Trade paper.

 

[Aurora et luna]

The one case that Australians may not know about is the South African Gold Coin exchange in the 1970s. They stored your krugerrands and issued certificates. As predicted when the crash came in gold in the 1980s the certificates did not match up and the vault was empty ? Surprise !!!

BarGold in Sydney did the same thing in the early 1980s with their client's gold.
My memory is a bit sketchy and all attempts at googling (Bargold, Bar Gold Bullion) has drawn a blank.
Hopefully someone here is a whiz with search engines and can trawl up the details

 

[Ronnie 666]

The one case that Australians may not know about is the South African Gold Coin exchange in the 1970s. They stored your krugerrands and issued certificates. As predicted when the crash came in gold in the 1980s the certificates did not match up and the vault was empty ? Surprise !!!

BarGold in Sydney did the same thing in the early 1980s with their client's gold.
My memory is a bit sketchy and all attempts at googling (Bargold, Bar Gold Bullion) has drawn a blank.
Hopefully someone here is a whiz with search engines and can trawl up the details

Steve it is very strange when I tried to look up the details of the SA Gold Coin Exchange scandal in 1983/4 I cant find any details on the web. Its like it never existed ? I remember reading the newspaper that day the cops raided the place and all the gold was gone. ? The Chair of the board was arrested yet nothing on Google ?
I will keep looking.

 

[Ronnie 666]

I know this is water under the bridge but not everyone believes this guy !

http://www.silverdoctors.com/precious-metals-analysts-gone-bad/

 

[RetardedMonkey]

+1.
I hedge my stack on pullbacks - use profits to add physical.
I add paper to my stack on run ups - use profits to add physical.

I should probably look into doing this.

Advice?

 

[wrcmad]

1. Learn about CFD's - the best tool to do this with. Learn what they are, how they work, etc.

2. Read this thread for an intro into how to make your strategy bullet proof (especially the bit on risk management):

http://forums.silverstackers.com/to...na-stack-i-wanna-tradeplease-help-page-1.html

3. Block your ears to all the naysayers re paper trading and leverage - if they tell you it is inevitable you will get burnt, it is because they have either been burnt themselves through poor trading strategies, or they cannot be bothered learning the simple methods of risk management to protect themselves.

4. Set up a dummy trading account with a CFD provider such as IG Markets and give it a crack. Have a plan. Tweak your strategy until you get it right.

5. Once successful, reap the rewards.

 

[tolly_67]

I have ignored Clive's warnings in the past and have regretted it. He does not always get it right but he seems to have the knack for understanding the big drops. Martin Armstrong is also pushing for one last drop down to what he refers to as a phase transition. Just like the unexpected final movement which defines the parabolic rise, so too does the end of a correction. If they are right then sometime in the next 6 months we could see the unexpected drop. Armstrong seems to think that the bottom will be in by around March/April.....Its a big call. I am going to go with them on this even though every part of me thinks its wrong. I dumped half my stack and will wait patiently. It will either be egg on my face or caviar on my plate. wooo hoooo...

 

[southerncross]

So what if things go parabolic and you cant get phys ? we have all seen it time and again on big rises where dealers sites have unexpected outages or cease trading until things become certain or there is a long wait for delivery.

I note you only parted with half your stack and can see the sense of selling and getting back in on a lower price but I personally think the time for this type of practice is growing shorter with the current climate, paper traders have the sort of instant option to jump in and out in minutes but replacing phys is and can be a lot more complicated on sharp rises especially.

 

[JulieW]

So what if things go parabolic and you cant get phys ? we have all seen it time and again on big rises where dealers sites have unexpected outages or cease trading until things become certain or there is a long wait for delivery.

I note you only parted with half your stack and can see the sense of selling and getting back in on a lower price but I personally think the time for this type of practice is growing shorter with the current climate, paper traders have the sort of instant option to jump in and out in minutes but replacing phys is and can be a lot more complicated on sharp rises especially.

A lot of smart commentators are saying exactly this. That 'the plan' is to get physical out of the market place at low rates.

I could be wrong but I see the physical market as a giant vacuum funnel, pulling physical up and up into 1000oz bars and few hands, leaving fairly paltry amounts of silver held in private hands.

Does anyone know where all that 'We Buy Your Gold' gold goes to?

 

[honey stacker]

I asked the staff at the we buy gold booth once and all they said was that their boss takes it away?

Thats a really interesting theory on the few hands. This would also mean that they could dump them later if they chose too right?