'Christmas' Bitcoin-Price-Guessing Comp

'Seven swing states are expected to be key in deciding the presidential race outcome.
These key states include Pennsylvania (19 Electoral votes), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6), collectively totaling 93 Electoral College votes.

A candidate needs at least 270 out of 538 Electoral votes to win the election.

Polls in these states will close between 7pm and 10pm Eastern Time (23:00 to 02:00 GMT).

Some of the first results will likely come from Georgia, where state law requires that all early votes be counted and reported by 8pm Eastern Time (midnight GMT) on election night.

North Carolina follows. In this state, votes will be counted and reported throughout the evening, with complete results anticipated by midnight (04:00 GMT).

In 2020, Nevada was slow, and the state was not called until five days after election day. Since then, the rules have changed, and the process is expected to move faster this time. Still, the results might not be known on election night. The state allows late-arriving mail ballots, so it could take days until we know the final results.'
 
'Théo said his conviction on a Trump victory rests on pollsters' failure to capture the full extent of Trump's support in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, and his belief that the "shy Trump voter effect" still endures in 2024. “I know a lot of Americans who would vote for Trump without telling you that,” he said, while also scoffing at the possibility that pollsters have improved their methodologies this time around.'


Peter Thiel uses the term 'preference falsification':

'Preference falsification is the act of misrepresenting a preference under perceived public pressures. It involves the selection of a publicly expressed preference that differs from the underlying privately held preference (or simply, a public preference at odds with one’s private preference). People frequently convey to each other preferences that differ from what they would communicate privately under credible cover of anonymity (such as in opinion surveys to researchers or pollsters)'
 
What do you reckon are the odds of a "sell the news" event if Trump wins? Let's say it pops 6% on the initial news to $73 000 or so then the sell off down to $70 340 on Nov 10 which happens to be my "winning" guess. :p

The Fed is also meeting Wednesday, current market expectations put a 25 basis point drop in at a 98% likelihood of happening.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
 
Last edited:
'Let's say it pops 6% on the initial news to $73 000 or so then the sell off down to $70 340'

I don't suggest I am good at this business, shiney -- it's become insanely more complicated in recent years. My Model is:

I think a Trump will will give Bitcoin a boost. Past the ATH. And 10% further = just over 80
 
I know I am a bit late to the party.
Think this closes on November 10th.

Mmmm shiney $70,340

Polar Bear Stacker $100,000

Barneyrubble $88,500

Wiowi $60,321.48

Falling Knife: $76,001

TheHatter $69,015

Selfwithin $69,000

Belovachap $100,000

Neonuke $62,888

Strike Attack $59,800

Stageone $120,000

AKKP $65,000

Golden Chipmunk $47,000

LordScuti $52,000

IndiaMikeZulu $80,500

Pana $62,000

Polycryptoblog $90,000

0xJulCaesar $77,000

stc786 $50,000

Nagalim: $7,000 [$0.43 PPC]

Rich Ward $64,320

Polar Antonym $62,243

Selfwithin $72,640

kikiriki $61,000

backpacker $80,000

No one believes it’s me $72,010

Ruby $73,500

Cybnate $76,500

Robyer $65,400

Powerhouse $44,000 (Discord PPC)

MattLM $68,000

RobertLloyd $69,500 (Discord PPC)

Lentz108 $68,555

Mrtr3 $54,234

Ronny $67,653

JohnnyLaw. DGB $78,600 (‘on 11/6’ -- ??)

Pigglewomp $85,000

Captainbuckkets $67,934.20

GK $66,666

Golden Bull $67,310

Evalucratie $69,420

Tomas $67,832

Markcoinoz $84,500
 
We love you dearly, Markcoinoz; and yes, you are late to the party.

(I recall that you won last year.)

$84,5? Your thinking is similar to mine. I bid just over $80.
 
'I reckon hit him up with a late fee'

Not a bad idea, shiney -- but the outcome of the election was the pivotal indicator, and mark turned up after the fact.
 
In my defence as a counter claim.

inmizi, your original post stated that 10th November was the cutt off date.
The turning point was the 6th November, one day after the polls for the election.
Therefore, the 10th November is a moot point. It had no relevance to the election.

On a side note, the reason why the 5th November was so significant.
It is exactly 200 days since the BTC Halving, which is also when Bob Loukas in his previous video said the breakout would occur.
As I follow the time of the 4 year cycle (1 Year Down - 3 Years Up) more so than the price as being the key indicator, I would suggest we have 36 Weeks
from the 5th November until 5th August being the Top. That is why I feel 5th November was more important.
We are in for some crazy times before then.
Hope you have an exit strategy.

I agree with Shiney.
It should be a late Fee.

Starting a crowd funding:p to cover the costs of late fees.
 
The error is mine. I did express the conditions unclearly.

How about this: you can be a 'late entry.' You mayn't officially win -- which would give me an administrative headache -- but if you do win, you get to be a sort of 'runner-up' and I will give you 100 QRL.
 
"Now I lay me down to sleep/And pray The Great Pumpkin my soul to keep. Please, Great Pumpkin, let Bitcoin rise to $80,500 in the next twelve hours, so I look clever even though, as organiser, I mayn't win. But don't let Bitcoin
rise to $84,500, which will mean a bullion bug made the crypto geeks look stoopid two years in a row. Thanks in advance."
 
Oh dear. I thought this was a Christmas BTC Guessing Comp as the original title suggests.
'Christmas' Bitcoin-Price-Guessing Comp
I blame Donald Trump for this.
 
The art of the inverted comma, as with so many other things literary, is going to hell in a hand cart.

I am having coffee in the garden.
 
It’s 5:20 a.m. here in the faraway farmhouse, and we're gonna spin some discs while we wait to check Bitcoin’s price at 6:00 a.m. First up: “/In a little hill-top village they gambled for my clothes”
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top