'Christmas' Bitcoin-Price-Guessing Comp
- Thread starter inmizu
- Start date
Mmmm shiney $70,340
Polar Bear Stacker $100,000
Barneyrubble $88,500
Wiowi $60,321.48
Falling Knife: $76,001
TheHatter $69,015
Selfwithin $69,000
JeffBouchard $99,999
Belovachap $100,000
Neonuke $62,888
Strike Attack $59,800
Stageone $120,000
AKKP $65,000
Golden Chipmunk $47,000
LordScuti $52,000
IndiaMikeZulu $80,500
Pana $62,000
Polycryptoblog $90,000
0xJulCaesar $77,000
stc786 $50,000
Nagalim: $7,000 [$0.43 PPC]
Polar Bear Stacker $100,000
Barneyrubble $88,500
Wiowi $60,321.48
Falling Knife: $76,001
TheHatter $69,015
Selfwithin $69,000
JeffBouchard $99,999
Belovachap $100,000
Neonuke $62,888
Strike Attack $59,800
Stageone $120,000
AKKP $65,000
Golden Chipmunk $47,000
LordScuti $52,000
IndiaMikeZulu $80,500
Pana $62,000
Polycryptoblog $90,000
0xJulCaesar $77,000
stc786 $50,000
Nagalim: $7,000 [$0.43 PPC]
'Incorrect polling, and a general assumption by the media that Trump’s campaign was doomed to fail, therefore heavily influenced betting. Ms Clinton went into the 2016 election with an “implied probability” of an 80 per cent chance of winning, the bookies said.
It wasn’t until 9pm on election night, two hours after polling closed in the first handful of states, that odds started shifting to Trump.
Betting odds therefore heavily influenced by incorrect polling and in the past two elections, that polling has been biassed against Trump.'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/poli...kets-presidential-election-odds-trump-harris/
Ok. This is interesting. The polling was poor. The media's repesentation of reality was poor. So bets were made on poor bases.
It wasn’t until 9pm on election night, two hours after polling closed in the first handful of states, that odds started shifting to Trump.
Betting odds therefore heavily influenced by incorrect polling and in the past two elections, that polling has been biassed against Trump.'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/poli...kets-presidential-election-odds-trump-harris/
Ok. This is interesting. The polling was poor. The media's repesentation of reality was poor. So bets were made on poor bases.
Interesting. There's 2 "markets", polling and betting.
Mmmm, "logic" and "money"?
Money (RKLB):
Logic:
Money (RKLB):
Logic:
Heaven help us, there's 'Wall Street' as well:
'Market observers see signs that investors increasingly believe Donald Trump will win the election, but there may be alternate explanations for a shift in sentiment.'
But I think this (from the Telegraph article above) is the most interesting data today:
'The main issue is that certain groups are far easier for pollsters to reach, in particular college-educated voters, who were more likely to vote for Clinton. Republicans in general were less likely to reply to surveys.'
'Pollsters can correct these biases by weighting responses differently, effectively making up for the lack of responses by portions of society.'
So, to sum up today:
One: polls are a datum that gets fiddled by pollsters who ‘weight responses differently.’
Two: betting is a datum that IMHO is a tad better because people are ‘putting their money where their mouth is’ – unless zillionaires are betting big in order to distort that datum.
Three: ‘the media’ is now showing (in polls -- see 'One' above) that people trust it less than at any time in sixty years.
Four: ‘the markets’ is just a subset of ‘the media.’
Five: The Reluctant Republicans are a sorta non-datum. How interesting!
Six: Bitcoin itself no longer indicates . . . some stuff . . . that it (somewhat) did five years ago.
And today’s Laughter Is The Best Medicine:
'Market observers see signs that investors increasingly believe Donald Trump will win the election, but there may be alternate explanations for a shift in sentiment.'
But I think this (from the Telegraph article above) is the most interesting data today:
'The main issue is that certain groups are far easier for pollsters to reach, in particular college-educated voters, who were more likely to vote for Clinton. Republicans in general were less likely to reply to surveys.'
'Pollsters can correct these biases by weighting responses differently, effectively making up for the lack of responses by portions of society.'
So, to sum up today:
One: polls are a datum that gets fiddled by pollsters who ‘weight responses differently.’
Two: betting is a datum that IMHO is a tad better because people are ‘putting their money where their mouth is’ – unless zillionaires are betting big in order to distort that datum.
Three: ‘the media’ is now showing (in polls -- see 'One' above) that people trust it less than at any time in sixty years.
Four: ‘the markets’ is just a subset of ‘the media.’
Five: The Reluctant Republicans are a sorta non-datum. How interesting!
Six: Bitcoin itself no longer indicates . . . some stuff . . . that it (somewhat) did five years ago.
And today’s Laughter Is The Best Medicine:
^ Stanley Druckenmiller says that a problem with polls is that they can only poll people who answer the phone calls - and that's something nearly everyone is doing less and less so the polls don't represent a cross-section of voters.
'On average, Trump holds a small edge, generally between 1 and 2 points, in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. To win the presidency, though, he will need to breach the “blue wall” by winning one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. As of midday Monday, those states are still, on average, about tied.'
https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/378909/election-2024-polls-harris-trump-winning-odds
Doesn't this put him in a good position? He needs one of three to win?
https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/378909/election-2024-polls-harris-trump-winning-odds
Doesn't this put him in a good position? He needs one of three to win?
Actually, I don't really care who wins because I don't think it will matter.
My position is that the people behind Trump are giving him a long leash to play in order to attract as many votes as possible and if he wins office they'll reign in his more extreme policies like the tariffs he's proposed.
And likely with Harris too. Her tax policies would probably give some the jitters.
They're both going to expand government spending, some sectors are going to do well, some will miss out eg fossil fuel v renewables.
My position is that the people behind Trump are giving him a long leash to play in order to attract as many votes as possible and if he wins office they'll reign in his more extreme policies like the tariffs he's proposed.
And likely with Harris too. Her tax policies would probably give some the jitters.
They're both going to expand government spending, some sectors are going to do well, some will miss out eg fossil fuel v renewables.
Last edited:
Mmmm shiney $70,340
Polar Bear Stacker $100,000
Barneyrubble $88,500
Wiowi $60,321.48
Falling Knife: $76,001
TheHatter $69,015
Selfwithin $69,000
JeffBouchard $99,999
Belovachap $100,000
Neonuke $62,888
Strike Attack $59,800
Stageone $120,000
AKKP $65,000
Golden Chipmunk $47,000
LordScuti $52,000
IndiaMikeZulu $80,500
Pana $62,000
Polycryptoblog $90,000
0xJulCaesar $77,000
stc786 $50,000
Nagalim: $7,000 [$0.43 PPC]
Rich Ward $64,320
Polar Bear Stacker $100,000
Barneyrubble $88,500
Wiowi $60,321.48
Falling Knife: $76,001
TheHatter $69,015
Selfwithin $69,000
JeffBouchard $99,999
Belovachap $100,000
Neonuke $62,888
Strike Attack $59,800
Stageone $120,000
AKKP $65,000
Golden Chipmunk $47,000
LordScuti $52,000
IndiaMikeZulu $80,500
Pana $62,000
Polycryptoblog $90,000
0xJulCaesar $77,000
stc786 $50,000
Nagalim: $7,000 [$0.43 PPC]
Rich Ward $64,320
'“If the early vote numbers stay the way they are, and that’s a big if, we’ll almost certainly know before Election Day who’s going to win the election … Make no mistake, if these numbers hold up in the states where we can understand even partially what the data is like, we’ll know that Donald Trump’s going to be president on Election Day … It’s extraordinarily important, and we got to track that day to day,” Halperin said. “That’s more important than the polls right now. It’s more important than almost anything because it’s giving us insight into a variety of factors that are accounting for a Republican overperformance by various metrics in the early voting in the battleground states.” '
Mmmm shiney $70,340
Polar Bear Stacker $100,000
Barneyrubble $88,500
Wiowi $60,321.48
Falling Knife: $76,001
TheHatter $69,015
Selfwithin $69,000
JeffBouchard $99,999
Belovachap $100,000
Neonuke $62,888
Strike Attack $59,800
Stageone $120,000
AKKP $65,000
Golden Chipmunk $47,000
LordScuti $52,000
IndiaMikeZulu $80,500
Pana $62,000
Polycryptoblog $90,000
0xJulCaesar $77,000
stc786 $50,000
Nagalim: $7,000 [$0.43 PPC]
Rich Ward $64,320
Polar Antonym $62,243
Polar Bear Stacker $100,000
Barneyrubble $88,500
Wiowi $60,321.48
Falling Knife: $76,001
TheHatter $69,015
Selfwithin $69,000
JeffBouchard $99,999
Belovachap $100,000
Neonuke $62,888
Strike Attack $59,800
Stageone $120,000
AKKP $65,000
Golden Chipmunk $47,000
LordScuti $52,000
IndiaMikeZulu $80,500
Pana $62,000
Polycryptoblog $90,000
0xJulCaesar $77,000
stc786 $50,000
Nagalim: $7,000 [$0.43 PPC]
Rich Ward $64,320
Polar Antonym $62,243
Mmmm shiney $70,340
Polar Bear Stacker $100,000
Barneyrubble $88,500
Wiowi $60,321.48
Falling Knife: $76,001
TheHatter $69,015
Selfwithin $69,000
JeffBouchard $99,999
Belovachap $100,000
Neonuke $62,888
Strike Attack $59,800
Stageone $120,000
AKKP $65,000
Golden Chipmunk $47,000
LordScuti $52,000
IndiaMikeZulu $80,500
Pana $62,000
Polycryptoblog $90,000
0xJulCaesar $77,000
stc786 $50,000
Nagalim: $7,000 [$0.43 PPC]
Rich Ward $64,320
Polar Antonym $62,243
Party Squirrel (Trippy) effectively zero
Polar Bear Stacker $100,000
Barneyrubble $88,500
Wiowi $60,321.48
Falling Knife: $76,001
TheHatter $69,015
Selfwithin $69,000
JeffBouchard $99,999
Belovachap $100,000
Neonuke $62,888
Strike Attack $59,800
Stageone $120,000
AKKP $65,000
Golden Chipmunk $47,000
LordScuti $52,000
IndiaMikeZulu $80,500
Pana $62,000
Polycryptoblog $90,000
0xJulCaesar $77,000
stc786 $50,000
Nagalim: $7,000 [$0.43 PPC]
Rich Ward $64,320
Polar Antonym $62,243
Party Squirrel (Trippy) effectively zero
Mmmm shiney $70,340
Polar Bear Stacker $100,000
Barneyrubble $88,500
Wiowi $60,321.48
Falling Knife: $76,001
TheHatter $69,015
Selfwithin $69,000
JeffBouchard $99,999
Belovachap $100,000
Neonuke $62,888
Strike Attack $59,800
Stageone $120,000
AKKP $65,000
Golden Chipmunk $47,000
LordScuti $52,000
IndiaMikeZulu $80,500
Pana $62,000
Polycryptoblog $90,000
0xJulCaesar $77,000
stc786 $50,000
Nagalim: $7,000 [$0.43 PPC]
Rich Ward $64,320
Polar Antonym $62,243
Party Squirrel (Trippy) effectively zero
Selfwithin $72,640
Polar Bear Stacker $100,000
Barneyrubble $88,500
Wiowi $60,321.48
Falling Knife: $76,001
TheHatter $69,015
Selfwithin $69,000
JeffBouchard $99,999
Belovachap $100,000
Neonuke $62,888
Strike Attack $59,800
Stageone $120,000
AKKP $65,000
Golden Chipmunk $47,000
LordScuti $52,000
IndiaMikeZulu $80,500
Pana $62,000
Polycryptoblog $90,000
0xJulCaesar $77,000
stc786 $50,000
Nagalim: $7,000 [$0.43 PPC]
Rich Ward $64,320
Polar Antonym $62,243
Party Squirrel (Trippy) effectively zero
Selfwithin $72,640