@nickybaby, your last price prediction of circa $10 was very accurate, do you mind if I ask how you arrived at that price and how you arrive at a $40-$50 PPS should selling an and assays confirm a feeder pipe?
Hi,
my valuation was based on a few things. I will try and be succinct here. If its a feeder pipe and the metals have all been oxidesed/ reduced with sulphur it effectively creates a metal sulphide wall underground. So if its a feeder pipe it created a monumental amount of ore. ( look at Voisey bay canada or norilsk Russia). This then creates a lot of Ni, Co , Pd ,( to a lesser extent Au) which seem to be all of which are fairly expensive green metals. Even a fraction of 6km at feeder pipe levels puts the value of ore in the ground well north of 500 billion dollars.
A rough guide I go by is a speccy mining company is worth 5 % of in ground ore value ( that's a MC of 25 billion). Then you have to take into account that not all of it can be mined in 1 go and that ore would be mined over 30 odd years. Tomorrows potential dollars are not worth as much as todays ect so i half the MC to about 12.5 billion. Current MC is 3.3 billion that's about 4 x our current share price.
But the great thing about this discovery is that its 90 KM form a major city. And an Australian city at that. We have little corruption, and exceptional infrastructure already in place. Imagine this being found in some tin pot dictatorship. The Major Palladium suppliers are Russia and South Africa so thats also a plus on our side. Another plus is the shallow nature of the deposit.
Lastly I looked at the technical charts as well. I'm a pragmatist and value a company on both technical and fundamentals. If you look at the trading patterns over the last few months this gets smacked down relentlessly yet always seems to bounce back up. I suspect that the market hasn't fully realised just what potential is down their. 30 year mine life at 4 billion a year with a small AISC yes please.
down side is its on a state forrest. Expect some resistance from the green political movement.
The top end of my calculations would be $100 a share. ( a Market cap of 35 billion). but i would liken the odds of that to walking into a casino hitting a royal flush on your first hand whilst simultaneously sitting next to a super model and getting her phone number, whilst the valet mistakenly gives you bonds DB9 on the way out.
But this all depends on hitting the right mineralisation. so it is risky.