Cedar Woods Properties (CWP)

finicky

finicky

Well-Known Member
Silver Stacker
Do you like the chart of this property developer?

I bought on the basis of the chart recently. Also I knew it was rated well by Skaffold and was due a dividend. Chart will continue to look good while it stays above 4 bucks. Illiquid stock and that's a danger.

Skaffold rates this stock as A2 based on FY12 results and past history, and values it at 5.28 based on forecast FY13. However they only have the input of one analyst for FY13 estimate.

This stock crashed in price and value during the GFC but recovered fully in two years. Cedar Woods has always produced a profit and dividend in the 10 years of coverage. The company claims it's net tangible value has been calculated 'independently' as higher than its share market price, but I have heard elsewhere that much of that value comes from its 'land bank'.

http://www.cedarwoods.com.au/Investors.aspx

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Cedar Woods Properties Half Year Financial
Results for FY2013

Cedar Woods Properties Limited (ASX: CWP) today reports
net profit after tax (NPAT) of $18.1 million for the first half of
FY2013 (1H2013), an increase of 65 per cent on the previous
corresponding period, driven by a stronger contribution from
its residential estates in Melbourne and Perth.

Cedar Woods recently upgraded its full year earnings
guidance for FY2013 to a record net profit of $35 million,
compared to FY2012 NPAT of $34.25 million.

Anticipating a strong full year performance, the Board has
declared a fully franked interim dividend of 11 cents per
share. The Board intends to maintain the companys policy of
distributing approximately 50 per cent of full year net profit.

Cedar Woods Managing Director, Paul Sadleir, said:
"Following a strong first half performance, Cedar Woods is
well placed to deliver a record full year net profit of $35
million.

"The Companys portfolio of strategically-located projects
continued to witness strong buyer demand in WA, and
performed well in Victoria, despite challenging market
conditions.

"With FY2013 presales substantially in place, we have already
turned our attention to the FY2014 year and have over $80
million presales in place for that year, which is a strong
achievement in the current market."

Cedar Woods has maintained a strong balance sheet with a
comfortable 12 per cent gearing, which positions the company
to pursue growth opportunities through development of
existing projects and through acquisitions.

At the end of 2012 the companys financiers confirmed the
extension of the companys $110m corporate debt facility by a
further 12 months to 30 November 2015, with Bankwest
joining ANZ Bank in the corporate club facility.

We are continuing to see opportunities arise as financial
institutions re-weight their portfolios and property owners seek
capital to develop their holdings or look to dispose of their
investments, said Mr Sadleir.

"We recently acquired a 32 hectare site in Byford, WA and
continue to review further opportunities."

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chart broken through $5 past high and consolidating. A correction would probably make it worth a buy for growing trend of yield?

Skaffold has rising eps and valuation estimates going forward, but input for eps is from only one analyst

Financial Year: 13, 14, 15

Earnings ps: 50, 57, 61

Dividend: 25, 28, 30

Intrinsic Value: $5.29, $6.11, $6.52

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CWP rises to A1

04 Mar

Cedar Woods Properties (CWP), one of Skaffold's Top 5 stocks for 2013, has risen to A1. CWP was identified as a stock to watch in 2013 on 8 January. In the period 8 January to 1 march 2013 CWP's share price has risen 12%. Woolworth's (WOW) performance also improved over the past six months, whilst Blackmores (BKL), IMF (Australia) Limited (IMF), GR Engineering Services (GNG) and Grange Resources (GRR) are the latest companies to lose their A1 Skaffold Scores.

Also Euroz Securities Institutional Conference preso:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CWP&E=ASX&N=627176
 
A major development site in Brisbane, Upper Kedron, is the occasion for a $30m capital raising. Price of CWP is up today on the news, and shareholders will be offered a share purchase plan at the same discounted price ($6.80) as the placement.
There will be infrastructure happening or lined up to integrate with Cedarwoods' project, suggesting that part of Upper Kedron might be a good place to have a house/unit?
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CWP&E=ASX&N=676935

Despite today's rise and news, my current guess is that the share price of CWP is correcting

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This one's looking financially healthy - knocking back 2/3rds of the subscription funds from shareholders! "No no keep your money we don't need it" That never happens in te resource sector.

ASX Announcement and
Media Release
16 June 2014
CWP SHARE PURCHASE PLAN OVERSUBSCRIBED

Cedar Woods Properties Limited (ASX: CWP) is pleased to advise that its
Share Purchase Plan (SPP), announced to the market on 6 May 2014,
received a strong response from shareholders and has closed
oversubscribed.

The SPP follows the successful completion of Cedar Woods' fully
underwritten placement to raise $25 million, as announced on 6 May 2014,
which was also oversubscribed.

Cedar Woods offered eligible shareholders the opportunity to subscribe for
new shares up to a maximum value of $15,000 per shareholder (subject to
scaleback).

At the close of the SPP (5.00pm, on Wednesday 11 June 2014, AWST),
valid applications for approximately $15.2 million had been received from
approximately 1,166 shareholders.

The terms of the offer provided that the SPP was subject to a cap of $5
million and accordingly the applications are to be scaled back on the basis
of 1 new share for every 3 shares applied for, taking the amount raised to
$5,035,985, marginally higher than the cap
 
Cedar Woods chart getting down to an interesting chart level.

Says today that, "Cedar Woods maintains full year earnings guidance for FY2015 for a record NPAT of $41 million", and that "The company remains well positioned to maintain earnings momentum into FY2016".
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CWP&E=ASX&N=721528
However hanging over CWP is future earnings doubt due to its activities in resources hit Queensland and W.A. Also the new Labor QLD state government has delayed progress of a major housing development by Cedar Woods that was signed off on by Brisbane City Council when Newman State govt was in power.

Paying a good dividend at these prices.

More a watch than an immediate buy my guess


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Down to 4 dollars
Directors change of interest notice out - a director bought $160k of shares on market @ 4.03
Australian Super gives notice of substantial holding
 
Thanks for the update.

Will you add to your holdings?

Is a dividend still being paid?
 
I doubt that I'll add @ Agnostic. I'm at over 5% CWP i think, i haven't bought a share of anything for over a year.
Yep, the 12c ffd dividend goes ex on Mar 30.
For a decision, a confident view of whether a housing crash is a possibilty would help. A lot of the book value of the company is tied up in the lands that it has purchased for development. It has still been buying land just recently.
Chartwise, the monthly chart isnt showing a clear reversal yet, and the monthly is what i most look to for a change of trend. Dangerous to buy into a downtrend without strong fundamental conviction.
 
Yes, its time to proceed with extreme caution.

Buying additional land at this time in the cycle is a courageous decision.
 
CWP @ $5.11 bid intraday
Probably should have been bolder with my sentiment on CWP, but lacking confidence in my judgement these days.

Has reported for fy16
Sixth consecutive year of increased earnings and dividend.
Expanding into Adelaide.
Conservative debt
Presales (for fy17) up 20% on prior year
Already giving guidance for similar fy17
Has been a good dividend payer

Disc: holds
Sentiment: keep on a watchlist for a real estate downturn?

CWP 5 year monthly
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