Carbon tax and the winners

Jonesy said:
PerthStack said:
boston said:
No matter what the price of energy per kW is from renewable technology in 10 years time, it will be price comparable with energy sourced from fossil fuels.

The market will always dictate the price, and I can guarantee that you will not save any appreciable amount between the two. This situation is definitely compounded when the government, who stands to loose revenue, owns the fossil fuel resource. Just a fact of life!
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The market for residential power will be in the form of decentralized power generation at the residence. If a solar system that costs $7500 will provide all your needs at home, why would anyone pay $2500 per year and rising to a coal energy company, year after year after year? Add a few more panels and now the fuel for your new electric car is free instead of getting gouged at the bowser. How can fossil fuel possibly compete with this scenario? Really, I want to know how you figure that the advancements in the efficiency and cost of renewable energy sources will stop dead and remain comparable in price to an energy source that constantly has to be mined from dwindling resources.
Click to expand...

Have they invented solar cells that work in the dark yet?
Click to expand...

Solar cells? No. Solar power? Yes.
 
Dwayne said:
Jonesy said:
PerthStack said:
The market for residential power will be in the form of decentralized power generation at the residence. If a solar system that costs $7500 will provide all your needs at home, why would anyone pay $2500 per year and rising to a coal energy company, year after year after year? Add a few more panels and now the fuel for your new electric car is free instead of getting gouged at the bowser. How can fossil fuel possibly compete with this scenario? Really, I want to know how you figure that the advancements in the efficiency and cost of renewable energy sources will stop dead and remain comparable in price to an energy source that constantly has to be mined from dwindling resources.
Click to expand...

Have they invented solar cells that work in the dark yet?
Click to expand...

Solar cells? No. Solar power? Yes.
Click to expand...

Until they build the 1km high thermal chimneys full of turbines in the desert and run some serious power lines I can't take solar seriously for urban areas. Australian houses just won't run on batteries from dusk till dawn, so rooftop solar panels won't cut it, especially if you want to charge your hybrid or battery car overnight.
 
Guys this thread is to talk about stocks which will benefit from carbon tax, please don't derail this and turn it into another carbon tax debate thread, don't want GP locking another thread -_-.
 
PerthStack said:
boston said:
PerthStack said:
Today possibly, what about in 10 years when coal is $500 per ton? 10 years ago, solar panels cost about $6-7 per watt, today the spot price is about $1.20-1.70 per watt. The energy needed to actually produce solar panels has reduced by 50%-90% as well.
All things being equal, using the last 10 years as a guide, coal power will be the same price as PV in 5 years and double the price in 10.
How about you invest $1000 in each of the 10 best performing coal power companies today, and I'll invest in the 10 best performing renewable energy companies and we'll see which of us does better over 10 years?
Click to expand...
No matter what the price of energy per kW is from renewable technology in 10 years time, it will be price comparable with energy sourced from fossil fuels.

The market will always dictate the price, and I can guarantee that you will not save any appreciable amount between the two. This situation is definitely compounded when the government, who stands to loose revenue, owns the fossil fuel resource. Just a fact of life!
Click to expand...
The market for residential power will be in the form of decentralized power generation at the residence. If a solar system that costs $7500 will provide all your needs at home, why would anyone pay $2500 per year and rising to a coal energy company, year after year after year? Add a few more panels and now the fuel for your new electric car is free instead of getting gouged at the bowser. How can fossil fuel possibly compete with this scenario? Really, I want to know how you figure that the advancements in the efficiency and cost of renewable energy sources will stop dead and remain comparable in price to an energy source that constantly has to be mined from dwindling resources.
Click to expand...
You forgot to factor in the cost of lost revenue to a government, who for all intents and purposes do not wish you to cut them out of the financial loop.
 
Jonesy said:
Dwayne said:
Jonesy said:
Have they invented solar cells that work in the dark yet?
Click to expand...

Solar cells? No. Solar power? Yes.
Click to expand...

Until they build the 1km high thermal chimneys full of turbines in the desert and run some serious power lines I can't take solar seriously for urban areas. Australian houses just won't run on batteries from dusk till dawn, so rooftop solar panels won't cut it, especially if you want to charge your hybrid or battery car overnight.
Click to expand...
If you can't see how PV electricity can work in urban areas, where there are thousands of acres of roofs that face the sun, then I doubt you ever will. You have not obviously researched this at all, as there are hundreds of examples on the web that show it working from as little as one home, to entire communities. The anti PV propaganda has been well executed and has worked on the majority of people.
BTW, what would the thermal chimeys achieve that rooftop PV wouldn't? They both only work during the day, but the thermal tower systems are far more complex and would be prone to breakdown just as any moving system is, and the maintenance would be massive compared to a sheet of glass that just needs a wipe every now and then. Then you have all the losses due to transmission from remote deserts, not to mention another massive capital outlay just for the power lines. PV is on the home, little transmission losses and zero cost for huge power lines. At 200w per square meter, the average roof probably has enough space to produce 20Kw peak, more than enough for the average household.
Either way, in the very near future, some people will be using free electricity from a system that has paid for itself and some people will still be whinging about the latest 30% price hike on their electricity bill.
 
Solar is all and good for australia where its sunny nearly everyday. Not feasable in my area where it rains 250 - 300 days per year. I have a metal roof with ridges on my house which allows easy solar hookup but the current technology is not feasible to work in my area for 10 thousand bucks I could probavbly meet 10 - 20 percent of my power needs.
I decided to spend the extra money on lots of southfacing windows and a good wood stove so I can maximize the natural light and have free heat (every winter storm blows down a few new trees so a chainsaw and some mix gas will get you years worth of free heat). I would however consider in investing in a couple windspires for wind energy as being on the coast of the North pacific there is almost always wind.
Now that its summer and light out till 10 pm I never use the lights and the passive solar heat heats my house to a comfortable temp so the heats been turned off for nearly two months now and its only 16 degrees outside.
If you're building a house you can take advantage of natural features to minimize your consumption. But then again building a house is a pain in the a$$ I've been working at mine for 14 months now. Nearly done though :)
 
PerthStack said:
Jonesy said:
Dwayne said:
Solar cells? No. Solar power? Yes.
Click to expand...

Until they build the 1km high thermal chimneys full of turbines in the desert and run some serious power lines I can't take solar seriously for urban areas. Australian houses just won't run on batteries from dusk till dawn, so rooftop solar panels won't cut it, especially if you want to charge your hybrid or battery car overnight.
Click to expand...
If you can't see how PV electricity can work in urban areas, where there are thousands of acres of roofs that face the sun, then I doubt you ever will. You have not obviously researched this at all, as there are hundreds of examples on the web that show it working from as little as one home, to entire communities. The anti PV propaganda has been well executed and has worked on the majority of people.
BTW, what would the thermal chimeys achieve that rooftop PV wouldn't? They both only work during the day, but the thermal tower systems are far more complex and would be prone to breakdown just as any moving system is, and the maintenance would be massive compared to a sheet of glass that just needs a wipe every now and then. Then you have all the losses due to transmission from remote deserts, not to mention another massive capital outlay just for the power lines. PV is on the home, little transmission losses and zero cost for huge power lines. At 200w per square meter, the average roof probably has enough space to produce 20Kw peak, more than enough for the average household.
Either way, in the very near future, some people will be using free electricity from a system that has paid for itself and some people will still be whinging about the latest 30% price hike on their electricity bill.
Click to expand...

The solar part I have no problem with, not just photovoltaic but simple solar hot water as well. (I am an electronics tech and I do understand things better than you think). I understand how much roof area is exposed to the sun in urban areas. I will say it again: Have they discovered photovoltaic cells that work in the dark? Houses draw most current at night when everyone is at home. When people want to be charging their cars. If there is no distributed grid and everyone depends on photovoltaic panels on the roof that leaves batteries and flywheels for half the day.
 
Speaking of solar,

I have been watching Silex Systems ASX : SLX for a while now. There share price is plummeting, they have plenty of cash thanks to a couple of grants from the government.

But alas, I'm only new to the game, and my research is not very good, but I'm pretty sure these are the only solar panel manufacturers in Australia. And are on target to manufacturing cells with greater efficiency.

They are trading at there lowest in 3 years.
 
Jonesy said:
PerthStack said:
Jonesy said:
Until they build the 1km high thermal chimneys full of turbines in the desert and run some serious power lines I can't take solar seriously for urban areas. Australian houses just won't run on batteries from dusk till dawn, so rooftop solar panels won't cut it, especially if you want to charge your hybrid or battery car overnight.
Click to expand...
If you can't see how PV electricity can work in urban areas, where there are thousands of acres of roofs that face the sun, then I doubt you ever will. You have not obviously researched this at all, as there are hundreds of examples on the web that show it working from as little as one home, to entire communities. The anti PV propaganda has been well executed and has worked on the majority of people.
BTW, what would the thermal chimeys achieve that rooftop PV wouldn't? They both only work during the day, but the thermal tower systems are far more complex and would be prone to breakdown just as any moving system is, and the maintenance would be massive compared to a sheet of glass that just needs a wipe every now and then. Then you have all the losses due to transmission from remote deserts, not to mention another massive capital outlay just for the power lines. PV is on the home, little transmission losses and zero cost for huge power lines. At 200w per square meter, the average roof probably has enough space to produce 20Kw peak, more than enough for the average household.
Either way, in the very near future, some people will be using free electricity from a system that has paid for itself and some people will still be whinging about the latest 30% price hike on their electricity bill.
Click to expand...

The solar part I have no problem with, not just photovoltaic but simple solar hot water as well. (I am an electronics tech and I do understand things better than you think). I understand how much roof area is exposed to the sun in urban areas. I will say it again: Have they discovered photovoltaic cells that work in the dark? Houses draw most current at night when everyone is at home. When people want to be charging their cars. If there is no distributed grid and everyone depends on photovoltaic panels on the roof that leaves batteries and flywheels for half the day.
Click to expand...
Solar hot water is a given, at the very least I think it should be mandatory on new homes it's such an energy saver. Along with PV, people have to change the way they use power, they can't just turn on the washing machine, dishwasher and charge the car when they go to bed like many do these days.
Most urban areas will still remain on the grid, putting your power into the grid during the day while you are at work, basically turning your meter backwards, and drawing against those gains in the evening, although this scenario still needs power generated by coal at night. There are systems being tinkered with around the world like smart grids and applications that work with them that will allow people to generate power on their home grid and charge their car at their workplace, transferring credits to their employer or middleman who provides the charging station. Once every home has two electric cars plugged into the grid, the combined storage will be massive and they will work as a capacitor, smoothing the power from intermittent power sources such as wind, which struggles when demand doesn't equal their output, the massive network of batteries will be able to store all the power generated instead of shutting them down as has to be done nowadays.
The grid will be used more to manage power, as opposed to soley delivering it today.
 
boston said:
PerthStack said:
boston said:
No matter what the price of energy per kW is from renewable technology in 10 years time, it will be price comparable with energy sourced from fossil fuels.

The market will always dictate the price, and I can guarantee that you will not save any appreciable amount between the two. This situation is definitely compounded when the government, who stands to loose revenue, owns the fossil fuel resource. Just a fact of life!
Click to expand...
The market for residential power will be in the form of decentralized power generation at the residence. If a solar system that costs $7500 will provide all your needs at home, why would anyone pay $2500 per year and rising to a coal energy company, year after year after year? Add a few more panels and now the fuel for your new electric car is free instead of getting gouged at the bowser. How can fossil fuel possibly compete with this scenario? Really, I want to know how you figure that the advancements in the efficiency and cost of renewable energy sources will stop dead and remain comparable in price to an energy source that constantly has to be mined from dwindling resources.
Click to expand...
You forgot to factor in the cost of lost revenue to a government, who for all intents and purposes do not wish you to cut them out of the financial loop.
Click to expand...
They should have thought about that before they sold off OUR power assets to hedge funds, thus losing revenue streams in the future. The GST from a PV system at home would be equal to the GST from a number of years of purchased electricity, but in a lump sum. All they need to do is invest that lump sum and there's a revenue stream.
 
PerthStack said:
Solar hot water is a given, at the very least I think it should be mandatory on new homes it's such an energy saver. Along with PV, people have to change the way they use power, they can't just turn on the washing machine, dishwasher and charge the car when they go to bed like many do these days.
Most urban areas will still remain on the grid, putting your power into the grid during the day while you are at work, basically turning your meter backwards, and drawing against those gains in the evening, although this scenario still needs power generated by coal at night. There are systems being tinkered with around the world like smart grids and applications that work with them that will allow people to generate power on their home grid and charge their car at their workplace, transferring credits to their employer or middleman who provides the charging station. Once every home has two electric cars plugged into the grid, the combined storage will be massive and they will work as a capacitor, smoothing the power from intermittent power sources such as wind, which struggles when demand doesn't equal their output, the massive network of batteries will be able to store all the power generated instead of shutting them down as has to be done nowadays.
The grid will be used more to manage power, as opposed to soley delivering it today.
Click to expand...

Sorry mate, I thought that you meant that PV on houses would replace the grid. Now I am on your page.
 
Wow so many posts. I have been super busy.

Umm I still think Natural gas stocks. While my opinion may be biased... Think about it. In the medium term coal stations will transition to gas fired ones. My preference is nuclear but I think it will be stagnant for 2-3 years.

Gas prices will rise. Just look at acquisitions recently by bhp and Santos. Their purchases are in anticipation of future gas price increases. Businesses will switch to the next cheapest alternative. Solar and geo maybe but it is a long way to go.
 
Ceramic Fuel Cells believe that the BlueGen will cost around 8k once in mass production. Certainly an affordable alternative if you have large power consumption that could be covered by say 1.5kw PV Solar during the day and one of these to take up the rest at night. Also consider that BlueGen will heat all your hot water.

Now the only problem is getting natural gas piped to everyone that currently doesn't have it. Anyone ready to swap that for the NBN? I recon I would.
 
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