Can someone explain Silver Manipulation Prices in VERY EASY TERMS?

SilverPete said:
That article is worth its own thread. I imagine there would be some "spirited" debate :lol:
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From what I've seen here (and enough times before), debate and spirit is hard to find.
Hard to expect from an ordinary bunch thieves with an excuse instead of a product or service.
I'm also not a threads spammer. That's more for people that use the propaganda-style quantity instead of arguments and quality.
Not that I name my posts as such. That's a job for the reader not the writer. Just like on the market, where customers judge & compare products and prices, and like the article says, make its producers EARN it. Something, for something, as a voluntary process.
 
LOL I hope that answesrs your question Rara

Always some good voluminous reading Pirocco, but it's not really keeping it simple is it?
 
I'm almost certain I won't. I'll just wait until resistence levels are broken and go long using vanillas and the USD/XAG cross and start shorting blue chips
 
finicky said:
I can't really because its a very strange business. It's a rigged market and it suits insiders for it to be that way. Contracts to deliver silver in the future determine the price. But the amount of these contracts far outweigh available real silver. The big money, the commercial traders, can apparently generate at will these promises to deliver silver in the future and swamp the market with sells. All the speculative buyers are saddled with the obligation to settle their obligations to buy at the transacted price while the silver price is forced lower and lower. This cause the speculative buyers to sell to limit their losses thus amplifying the effect as it increases selling. At the same time other buyers will step back and not bid in a falling market that they know is rigged by big players. At some point the big fjkers reverse their stance and start buying everything back that they've sold but at a lower price. And it's all done with electronic contracts on an exchange - little or no real silver is exchanged, but this perverted process does determine what real physical silver outside the process is paid. These lowlife frking scumbags then .... I don't really understand it myself, and I first bought silver in 2003 ....

Here's your Youtube vid:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gl47z2g2EvI[/youtube]
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I watched all 3 of these last night, really really odd
 
Not looking forward to the "Silver Manipulation Prices in VERY DIFFICULT TERMS" thread.
 
Caput Lupinum said:
I love nothing more than to short the silver market and use my paper profits to buy physical at the lower price :D
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+1.
It is one of my most pleasurable past times. :)
 
SilverPete said:
wrcmad said:
Caput Lupinum said:
I love nothing more than to short the silver market and use my paper profits to buy physical at the lower price :D
Click to expand...
+1.
It is one of my most pleasurable past times. :)
Click to expand...
Ah yes, good times.
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Now look at them yo-yo's that's the way you do it
You play the markets on the MT4 platform
That ain't workin' that's the way you do it
Money for nothin' and chicks for free
Now that ain't workin' that's the way you do it
Lemme tell ya them guys ain't dumb
Maybe get a blister on your typing finger
Maybe get a blister on your bum
 
hack into "The Cartel" chat room just like the BP one, but this one is Ag SUA chat :lol:
 
Golightly said:
LOL I hope that answesrs your question Rara

Always some good voluminous reading Pirocco, but it's not really keeping it simple is it?
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I don't see much in your post.
It's like watching a sea with no boats, birds, dolphins and floating scrap: boooooring.
If you want really simple things, you should visit an elementary school, not this forum LOL.
 
Pirocco said:
phrenzy said:
There is also some discussion about how much silver and gold is backing the paper contacts. Some people say the ratio is 1:100 and is getting lower, possibly as low as 1 ounce for every 400 bought and sold.
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Which paper contracts?
Shares from ETFs that track the price along simulteanous purchasing / selling of the commodity (not derivatives like futures), have a silver stock whose size corresponds to the amount shares. They publish the bars serial number lists. That all sounds like 1:1 to me.
Futures? A 1:1 stock, or any stock at all, is just irrelevant there, a mere percent of the contracts ends in a metal ownership change, most just end in dollar ownership change, which was the intention from the beginning and also the reason for futures.
Allocated is pretty much the same as ETF's, only that you actually own the metal, which isn't the case in ETF's.
So, which paper contracts do you refer to here?
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I own and like USLV (VelocityShares 3x Long Silver ETN). It is an ETF run by CreditSuisse Group AG. The goal of the fund is to produce a price movement of a 3X position in silver. This fund is not to be confused with SLV. SLV matches buy/sell orders to maintain their physical silver inventory.

USLV is just paper, and was designed to be traded. I don't believe that they actually own any silver, and the fund itself is actually a debt instrument. It works pretty well when you are on the right side of the market, but equally bad when you are not. USLV is a pretty small fund, only about 5.4 million shares. 5.4M x 3 = 16.2 million ounces though I doubt if they get that large in a position.

It is about the only way a small investor can trade silver regularly without the substantial investment required for a commodity contract. I don't understand how it works, that is pretty much rocket science.
 
alor said:
hack into "The Cartel" chat room just like the BP one, but this one is Ag SUA chat :lol:
Click to expand...

This is what you see in "The Cartel" chat room:

Caput Lupinum said:
I love nothing more than to short the silver market and use my paper profits to buy physical at the lower price :D
Click to expand...

Caput Lupinum said:
I'm almost certain I won't. I'll just wait until resistence levels are broken and go long using vanillas and the USD/XAG cross and start shorting blue chips
Click to expand...

wrcmad said:
Caput Lupinum said:
I love nothing more than to short the silver market and use my paper profits to buy physical at the lower price :D
Click to expand...
+1.
It is one of my most pleasurable past times. :)
Click to expand...

Caput Lupinum said:
Now look at them yo-yo's that's the way you do it
You play the markets on the MT4 platform
That ain't workin' that's the way you do it
Money for nothin' and chicks for free
Now that ain't workin' that's the way you do it
Lemme tell ya them guys ain't dumb
Maybe get a blister on your typing finger
Maybe get a blister on your bum
Click to expand...

No need to hack.
The room is public, and for free.
And even their actions are public, and for free.
Indirectly, along the futures market figures, and some other figures.
Those I publish here and there, now and then, and provide links to.
This topic, asks for an explanation of manipulation.
There is no explanation needed. Only data.
And it's not complex to read a figure.
Even Bart and Lisa learnt this in elementary school.

Mom, how many eggs we have?
Mom, how many ounces did the Caput Lupinums and wrcmads of the world purchase?

That is reflected in published figures at no cost. Mom doesn't ask money (although the CTFC-mom might get tax money).
One doesn't need to understand the mechanics, just to read. If that isn't easy terms. :D

Those that do want:
A silver futures long or short position is an exposure to the price of 5000 ounces.
It is initiated by someone on the market of the underlying of the futures contract (here silver), that wants to not have paid more, or received less, than todays (cash/spot) price, for an amount silver of 5000 ounces.

In order to "hedge" 5000 ounces against a price drop, one can take:
- 1 short position
or
- 2 short positions + 1 long position
or
- 20 short positions + 19 long positions.
It's the difference that matters for the price, not the absolute number of positions, and that's why a net total figure has to be calculated.
The sum of all long positions minus the sum of all short positions.
There are a number of reasons / different activities possible on a market.
There are the 2 basic general classes: supply (sellers) and demand (buyers).
And there are the subclasses that share a number of characteristics, being their dominant activities at the time.
Miners. Dealers. Industrials. Money managers. Bigger buyers. Smaller buyers.
And the swap dealers, that are the always-willing buyers or sellers, at a price.
If one wants to take a position, and there is at that moment nobody willing to take the counterposition, the swap dealer takes it, and sets the spot price a corresponding amount higher or lower, to earn a profit for the willingness / risk.
That is what is named "market-making". The profit is named "spread".

The amount that is hedged, thus serves as an indicator for the price risk that the hedgers see.
Since those on the futures market tend to sit closer to the market, they are usually better informed.
Ex a miner knows earlier how much he gonna produce, a large systemic bullion bank has earlier and more data, a money manager has plenty funds to buy earlier data and even some smaller fish that is active on a futures market still tends to put more time, money / knows more than average joe stacker that buys his wow monsterbox at Perth Mint.
Since the CFTC publishes this data, average joe stacker is, in a degree nothing more or less than this, able to spy upon them, as to see what they think the risk is, as reflected by their total net position.

The bigger their total net position is, the more risk they see in the price, and the more they have driven up the price to suit their hedging.
Paying this higher part of the price is paying the dollars that they need for their price-change compensation / hedge.
Not paying this higher part is making their hedging fail.
On the other hand, they sit higher than you in the supply chain. They may know global dealer sales figures. Indirectly they know if you buy or not buy. And they use it to throttle the size of their hedge.
But, it all takes effort and time. It makes it harder. And most importantly: price fluctuations dampen. Without price fluctuations, money for nothing clubbers only have a one way ticket and no rinse and repeat. Any smaller fluctuation is a step towards it.
Pirocco likes that! :D
 
Pirocco said:
Mom, how many eggs we have?
Mom, how many ounces did the Caput Lupinums and wrcmads of the world purchase?
Click to expand...
How many cones has Pirocco pulled?
Happy New Year's ;)
 
wrcmad said:
Pirocco said:
Mom, how many eggs we have?
Mom, how many ounces did the Caput Lupinums and wrcmads of the world purchase?
Click to expand...
How many cones has Pirocco pulled?
Happy New Year's ;)
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The current reports for the week of December 23, 2014 are now available.

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* browser to http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm
* scrollin' down to SILVER - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. Disaggregated Commitments of Traders - Futures Only, December 23, 2014
* -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
: : Producer/Merchant/ : : : : Positions
: Open : Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Interest : Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading : Long : Short :Spreading : Long : Short :Spreading : Long : Short
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: :(CONTRACTS OF 5,000 TROY OUNCES) :
: : Positions :
All : 149,149: 19,549 45,537 34,870 42,614 8,025 39,725 22,455 6,029 12,332 3,289 8,149: 20,470 13,051
Old : 149,149: 19,549 45,537 34,870 42,614 8,025 39,725 22,455 6,029 12,332 3,289 8,149: 20,470 13,051
Other: 0: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0: 0 0

* going to file /silver/futures.txt
* copying
16/12/2014 33997 $15.87
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 19553 Short 43732
SwapDealer Long 33933 Short 43751
ManagedMoney Long 39852 Short 22904
OtherReportables Long 13069 Short 3528
SmallTraders Long 21094 Short 13586
... to a new entry
* going to http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalsilver.html
* checking 2014 under YEARLY SILVER CHARTS
* clicking on View Data
* reading 15.71 for 23 december
* editing the /silver/futures.txt copypasted text part to:
23/12/2014 ????? $15.71
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 19549 Short 45537
SwapDealer Long 34870 Short 42614
ManagedMoney Long 39725 Short 22455
OtherReportables Long 12332 Short 3289
SmallTraders Long 20470 Short 13051
* calculating new net total position along the supply side (2 first trader classes in list):
19549-45537+34870-42614=-33732
* verifying along calculating the same for the demand side (3 last trader classes in list):
39725-22455+12332-3289+20470-13051=+33732
* editing ????? to 33732
* comparing the previous position-price combination: 33997 $15.87
with the new position-price combination: 33732 $15.71
* calculating a change of 33997-33732=-265 positions and a price change of $15.87-$15.71=-0.16 price dollars.
* calculating the amount ounces change per price dollar change: 265/0.16=1656.25
* seeing that nothing changed much in the underlying market.

Concluding that it's still as worse to longterm-stack silver as it was before, since 33732 positions is a 33732 x 5000 = 168,660,000 ounces ordered in the future, reflected in the $15.71 spot price, but won't be delivered, meaning that that price part will go once the positions are closed (due to the hedged silver stock having been sold in the higher price range).
Past trends suggest that there is about a 70 Moz supply/demand change for every price dollar.
So, if an 169 Moz future order gets cancelled, the price should drop 169/70=2.41 dollars.
So, without the future orders, the price would be $15.71 - $2.41 = $13.3
Since they rarely go to a complete net zero (price neutral, no price exposure), and 10000 seems to be an average min in recent years, I calculate my max target price to do a next stack addition at:
33732-10000=23732 positions "surplus", which is 23732 x 5000 = 118,66 Moz, divided by 70 per price dollar = $1.695 price dollars.
So, the next time that they ran out of stock and need a replenish, my max target price would be $15.71 - $1.695 = $14.
So, the price range to "snoop" in should be $13.3 to $14.
I'll see by then if things changed, and in which direction.

That's 1 wrcmad-cone pulled.
 
Eureka Moments said:
wrcmad said:
Pirocco said:
Mom, how many eggs we have?
Mom, how many ounces did the Caput Lupinums and wrcmads of the world purchase?
Click to expand...
How many cones has Pirocco pulled?
Happy New Year's ;)
Click to expand...

Dont you mean crack pipes? :lol:
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From eggs to cones to pipes.
The money for nothin' club gets desperate? :lol:
 
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