Buy now or wait for price and AUD to drop???

[Jim4silver]

We all base our opinions on future price movement on assumptions we make. I think many are assuming silver is going to keep falling, maybe go to $12, or $10, or $9, etc. But you really don't know that as a fact. Many also assume if silver keeps dropping in this current move, that there will be adequate metal available at a cheaper price than we have now. My local stores that have silver are charging $3+ over on generic crap bars/rounds. The other stores are all out except for really pricey stuff like Pandas, etc. The stores that are out have 3 to 4 week waits for bullion orders placed today. One dealer I spoke to today said they have "pre-sold" over 10,000 ounces just in the past few days. If we keep dropping, even more buying will kick in. I like to buy and walk out with my metals in hand, no way will I do any pre-pay orders like that.

One assumption I make in my price projections, which is based on past silver movements during the bull run from 2001 to 2011, is that when silver does finally bottom, it reverses up fairly quick. I don't mean it will double, etc, but get back fast to a level that was support before the final correction. If we bottom out at $12, I believe that price will hit $15 to $16 or so fairly quick, that is once we do finally bottom once and for all. And if $14 turned out to the be bottom, we would shoot up to $18 or so quickly.

My view is (and I may turn out wrong, won't be first time) that the powers that be that are shorting silver now will reverse course at some point and drive the price up again like they did from 2010 to 2011. I don't think this future run up will be due to excessive demand for physical per se (at least not initially) but will be another up run for fun and profit in the paper/derivatives markets by those who have large amounts of $$$$ to drive leveraged bets higher at will (or lower if they want, like now). Further, they have to keep the paper game going, and that game allows someone to take delivery if they pony of the money, etc. If it ever happens that they can't deliver silver because the physical price is much higher than the paper price, they would be able to settle in cash legally (force majeure, etc), but that would be considered a default, and they don't want that to happen. So they have to be able to deliver at close to spot on Comex, etc, no matter how low it goes.

Just my opinion.

Jim

While I'm not familiar with "force majeure"....
I agree with everything you've stated 100%.

I plan to enter the market soon, at the best price possible.
People say you can't buy at the bottom.....well....you can.

This is what it means with respect to commodities. I believe that if the paper price and physical price splits too far, at some point the sellers will push for a force majeure declaration based upon unavailability of PM's at the current "spot" price.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/08/29/markets/nymex/

Jim

 

[hamannmj]

hamannmj wrote:

I agree with Black Ram. You're essentially betting on silver to drop to $12 an ounce (unlikely), and not giving Silver much upside (unlikely). For me, I like to hedge a bit...leaving a small percentage of funds available as silver slides under a GSR of 65-70 (historically great).
$2 an ounce on 1000 ounces is, yes...$2,000. But, missing out...and watching silver rise to $19, for me...is a much more likely scenario.
PLus, we ALL know...IF/When silver drops to $12....everyone will be waiting for it to drop under $10.
I've been watching this logic for years...and, I remember the sky was falling when silver dropped under $20. Everyone wanted to back their trucks up...and a lot did.

Exactly! The more certain you are about an exact outcome (like $12 per ounce) the more you will sweat on it happening. All over a couple of dollars per ounce. The outcome of missing out on a few dollars on the low side is better than missing out and buying on the upside in a mad rush to get in early if it takes off again.

Funny you both think it's "missing out" if silver price rises...
I'm holding out until silver sub $12/oz ORRRRR if it starts heading upward definitively.

It's clearly the best hedge of both worlds.

When will it start heading "upward definitively"

When you find out, I'll pay you 100k

 

[hamannmj]

Isn't the aim of investing in silver (or anything) to buy low and sell high? Wouldn't you "miss out" if the price rises and you didn't buy lower?
How do you determine if the silver price is "definitively" heading upward?

Uhhh, yeah? If the price goes up $1 or $2 how have I missed out?!?!?! It's going to the moon!!!
Strong support in an ^ upward ^ trend is quite definitive.

Here's an example : Spot is 14.86 USD.
The fed is raising rates, thus dropping metals down even more.
Why buy now when I might be able to get in at $10-$12 usd?
The premiums will be close to the same if shopping smart & looking at TONS of sites to price compare.

If silver goes up to $16, then I'm obviously wrong....BUT....I'll buy at that price & my investment is INSTANTLY increasing in value...
This make sense?

No.

Because it could drop to 13, and be sideways for 12 years.

This makes sense.

 

[ninteno]

the fed is talking about to raise rates lang ago
if it finally comes i see only buy the rumot sell the fact.
so i expect rising PM after a rate hike

 

[theFNG]

I read that if the worlds economies collapse again as in 08-09 the CB's next move would be QE directly to the working man. Wages of the world be increased, work week hours for full time would decrease, overall employment would be "forced" to increase via work week laws, ect. I certainly believe the last spike in PMs was caused by QE and these large funds buying PM for protection. However if the next QE rounds occur as stated above I'm not sure where it will bring PM. Charts say up, but this would be somewhat uncharted territory....we will see.

 

[-j-p-shmorgan]

Exactly! The more certain you are about an exact outcome (like $12 per ounce) the more you will sweat on it happening. All over a couple of dollars per ounce. The outcome of missing out on a few dollars on the low side is better than missing out and buying on the upside in a mad rush to get in early if it takes off again.

Funny you both think it's "missing out" if silver price rises...
I'm holding out until silver sub $12/oz ORRRRR if it starts heading upward definitively.

It's clearly the best hedge of both worlds.

When will it start heading "upward definitively"

When you find out, I'll pay you 100k

It's pretty basic chart patterns brah.
No need to give me 100k.
I'll let you know when to invest that 100k that you don't have.

 

[-j-p-shmorgan]

Because it could drop to 13, and be sideways for 12 years.

This makes sense.

Yeah, and in 12 years, Ill say buy....once it's $15/oz. lmfao

 

[SpacePete]

Please don't invoke the sideways demon. He wanders in, craps all over everything, then wanders off trailing a stench of shit and smugness.

 

[hamannmj]

Funny you both think it's "missing out" if silver price rises...
I'm holding out until silver sub $12/oz ORRRRR if it starts heading upward definitively.

It's clearly the best hedge of both worlds.

When will it start heading "upward definitively"

When you find out, I'll pay you 100k

It's pretty basic chart patterns brah.
No need to give me 100k.
I'll let you know when to invest that 100k that you don't have.

lol, you don't get it...but, that's ok. To each their own...and, I hope that it makes you millions.

good luck to you too "bruh."

Seriously..I hope you time the market. And, clearly you know where the bottom is...and when silver is going to go upwards and stay upwards...buying in at jussssst the right time.

 

[hamannmj]

Because it could drop to 13, and be sideways for 12 years.

This makes sense.

Yeah, and in 12 years, Ill say buy....once it's $15/oz. lmfao

definitely...then, at $15 an ounce, it'll drop to $9.

You have beat the system! You should write a book.

Look, even the best logic is met with resistence...that's why were all here...to share that knowledge and all be successful in the long term. Every one of us has different goals for investing, but mainly PM provides us with a place that we can store "value" in a market that is driven by "paper."

Every one of us had a scheme that we thought would work. I mean, silver was hovering around $5 less than a decade ago...and, it rose 900%. How many of us "stacked" a ton of silver and sold at the high?

I didn't.

I did buy some on its way up...at $25, $30, even $35. I sold some at $35, $40 and then at $24...hell, even some at $22!

It's tough to ride the wave on either direction...there are just too many parameters involved.

But, you "brah"ing me...just shows sort of an unrealistic, albeit, even amateurish approach to stacking/investing, etc.

You could ride the silver "up" as you say...only to see it go from $16 (your buy point) to $19 (not enough to sell...with premiums) and then back to $10-13 for a decade. At which time...s(h)it happen, i.e., life...and some of that silver will need to be used to feed kids, pay for vacations, etc.

Good luck to you. Seriously...I hope you can time it. That's why I offered you 100k when you do...because, i'll gladly make-up the difference with a huge IRA deposit and make returns unheard of.

I can finally achieve my goals of total world domination.

 

[hamannmj]

If it's going to the moon it does not matter if you pay 12 or 14. But if it goes there before reaching 12 then you miss out on the ounces you could have bought at 14.

It's not going to the moon overnight is the point. There is zero rush.
I'd rather buy something INCREASING in value, not decreasing.

I think Warren Buffet said the exact opposite.

 

[Caneorange]

Actually Mr. Buffett is a dividend investor and prefers to hold assets that pay regular dividends and very few high dividend paying stocks jump quickly.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1310...7-secrets-to-dividend-investing-revealed.html

 

[-j-p-shmorgan]

If it's going to the moon it does not matter if you pay 12 or 14. But if it goes there before reaching 12 then you miss out on the ounces you could have bought at 14.

It's not going to the moon overnight is the point. There is zero rush.
I'd rather buy something INCREASING in value, not decreasing.

I think Warren Buffet said the exact opposite.

I didn't realize my posts bothered you that much. :lol:
Only took you 3 rant posts.
I'ma be rich. Shame on you for steering people wrong. LOL

 

[sterling-nz]

It's not going to the moon overnight is the point. There is zero rush.
I'd rather buy something INCREASING in value, not decreasing.

I think Warren Buffet said the exact opposite.

I didn't realize my posts bothered you that much. :lol:
Only took you 3 rant posts.
I'ma be rich. Shame on you for steering people wrong. LOL

You got it all sorted i think mate
Same boat here , but i think i have a decade of age on you.
So you are a good 10 years ahead from where i am standing.

 

[SpacePete]

I'ma be rich. Shame on you for steering people wrong. LOL

Can I be rich too? I want to be part of this plan!

 

[hamannmj]

Lol...riggght.

Just stick to your plan. It's solid, and fool proof.

 

[-j-p-shmorgan]

LOL, I'll let you know when to sink your life savings into PMs.
The time is coming, but not yet. :lol:

 

[The Crow]

... sink your life savings into PMs ....

That'll be great. Do you think $10 is enough, or should I try to build up my savings a bit first?

 

[-j-p-shmorgan]

... sink your life savings into PMs ....

That'll be great. Do you think $10 is enough, or should I try to build up my savings a bit first?

$10 should be good, since it will be going to the moon. lol

 

[hamannmj]

And just to add to what I've stated above....
Do I think silver is a bargain? Yes.
Will I be able to buy it cheaper by waiting, thus accumulating more ounces? Yes.

Lol