-j-p-shmorgan
New Member
The Black Ram said:
Funny you both think it's "missing out" if silver price rises...
I'm holding out until silver sub $12/oz ORRRRR if it starts heading upward definitively.
It's clearly the best hedge of both worlds.
Buy now or wait for price and AUD to drop???
- Thread starter TODDY TATTS
- Start date
Funny you both think it's "missing out" if silver price rises...
I'm holding out until silver sub $12/oz ORRRRR if it starts heading upward definitively.
It's clearly the best hedge of both worlds.
fiatphoney
New Member
An alternative to DCA at these levels, not saying good or bad.
There is a line of thinking that will only buy on the way up from a channel break in a chart.
When the bull has resumed, you may miss the final bottom, but hopefully you have missed a series of false bottoms on the way down, and the theory is you remain in profit with the bull resuming, but will miss the bottom paying maybe 20% or more. And ofcourse stop loss if downward channel resumes. Also sideways travel can play out for decades.
There is a line of thinking that will only buy on the way up from a channel break in a chart.
When the bull has resumed, you may miss the final bottom, but hopefully you have missed a series of false bottoms on the way down, and the theory is you remain in profit with the bull resuming, but will miss the bottom paying maybe 20% or more. And ofcourse stop loss if downward channel resumes. Also sideways travel can play out for decades.
-j-p-shmorgan
New Member
fiatphoney said:
I agree with everything posted except the last sentence. lol
Sideways for decades....just won't happen. :lol:
The Black Ram
New Member
Ummm... 1946 to 1970 & 1991 to 2003. Or...1912 to 1973 if you really want to talk sideways.
http://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-100-year-chart
In the world of investing anything can happen and all possibilities are on the table. You can only invest based on the risk of an outcome you are trying to predict. unless you have a crystal ball.
Isn't the aim of investing in silver (or anything) to buy low and sell high? Wouldn't you "miss out" if the price rises and you didn't buy lower?
How do you determine if the silver price is "definitively" heading upward?
-j-p-shmorgan
New Member
The Black Ram said:
Uhhh, yeah? If the price goes up $1 or $2 how have I missed out?!?!?! It's going to the moon!!!
Strong support in an ^ upward ^ trend is quite definitive.
Here's an example : Spot is 14.86 USD.
The fed is raising rates, thus dropping metals down even more.
Why buy now when I might be able to get in at $10-$12 usd?
The premiums will be close to the same if shopping smart & looking at TONS of sites to price compare.
If silver goes up to $16, then I'm obviously wrong....BUT....I'll buy at that price & my investment is INSTANTLY increasing in value...
This make sense?
-j-p-shmorgan
New Member
Porcello said:
It's not going to the moon overnight is the point. There is zero rush.
I'd rather buy something INCREASING in value, not decreasing.
I've purchased silver and gold from you guys in AUS last week as the going is extremely good ATM. 1 GBP was 1.5 AUS in 2013. It was 2.1 last week along with the lows of the spot means an extremely good buy. Let it continue as my money is being spent nicely. A gamble... Who wins?
Aureus said:
The Atlanta Fed's "GDP Forecast" suggests a rise may be on the cards. It's approaching the consensus for the first time in a while.
https://frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
I now use as key flag the stock levels of the silver ETFs.
Their gold equivalents did a big sell off during end 2012 and later 2013.
They sold 1/3 of what they accumulated since they started, -916 tonnes.
Last year another minus -184 tonnes.
The silver ETF shareholders just held on.
Then coin sales, using ASE's as sample basis, these are still 5 times the 2004 levels.
What made the price then drop so far? Well, just the ETF demand that vanished, they stockpiled, then ceased adding, just held. Enough to halve the average price from its $35 2011 peak.
So one could say that the bottom is not yet there, or at least the sideways of the current bottom is not over and there may be chances to buy when the own currency buys more of it than today.
I buy with euro's, euro is quite weak on the long term, so that's another reason to hold / accumulate euro's rather than swap them for silver.
Another indicator when to buy may be the amount pm dealers out there. Some disappeared but the vast majority of those that came into the "game" 2008+ are still "in the business". I don't think a boom market ends that way, so todays price must still be boom.
Their gold equivalents did a big sell off during end 2012 and later 2013.
They sold 1/3 of what they accumulated since they started, -916 tonnes.
Last year another minus -184 tonnes.
The silver ETF shareholders just held on.
Then coin sales, using ASE's as sample basis, these are still 5 times the 2004 levels.
What made the price then drop so far? Well, just the ETF demand that vanished, they stockpiled, then ceased adding, just held. Enough to halve the average price from its $35 2011 peak.
So one could say that the bottom is not yet there, or at least the sideways of the current bottom is not over and there may be chances to buy when the own currency buys more of it than today.
I buy with euro's, euro is quite weak on the long term, so that's another reason to hold / accumulate euro's rather than swap them for silver.
Another indicator when to buy may be the amount pm dealers out there. Some disappeared but the vast majority of those that came into the "game" 2008+ are still "in the business". I don't think a boom market ends that way, so todays price must still be boom.
-j-p-shmorgan
New Member
mmm....shiney! said:
All these kids thought I was nuts for not buying.....
Jim4silver
Well-Known Member
-j-p-shmorgan said:mmm....shiney! said:
All these kids thought I was nuts for not buying.....
Everyone says raising rates will cause PM's to fall, I don't think that will necessarily be the case. But first, I don't think they will raise rates. But if they do, don't assume PM's will fall. Everyone also said when the Fed stopped the QE the stock market would crash, but it gained like crazy after they stopped QE, even though it had a few dips at first.
Conventional wisdom does not seem to apply anymore. Further, there are other reasons PM's go up besides inflation, weak dollar, and that is fear. It still seems like something big is on the horizon via financial crashes, etc. This Greece thing hasn't really gone away. We have Puerto Rico gonna go bankrupt and shaft the bond holders, etc. I guess if people think they can buy silver someday for $10 per ounce inclusive of premiums (or even less), then they should wait.
Even if I wanted to wait, I would not be able to buy as much as I wanted if I only made a one time purchase in that my goal is a large stash and I never seem to have enough available cash to load up at any one time. If I do save it I wind up using the cash on other things instead. By dollar cost averaging, I am accumulating over time. When or if the big crash happens, I will simply buy more if I can.
If people think silver is going to say, $40 or higher, is there much of a difference between buying now and waiting for a "bottom"? I guess if one is buying 1000's of ounces it could make a difference, assuming you can get silver that cheap when the paper price does fall.
Just my opinion.
Jim
-j-p-shmorgan
New Member
Jim4silver said:-j-p-shmorgan said:mmm....shiney! said:
All these kids thought I was nuts for not buying.....
Everyone says raising rates will cause PM's to fall, I don't think that will necessarily be the case. But first, I don't think they will raise rates. But if they do, don't assume PM's will fall. Everyone also said when the Fed stopped the QE the stock market would crash, but it gained like crazy after they stopped QE, even though it had a few dips at first.
Conventional wisdom does not seem to apply anymore.
I guess if people think they can buy silver someday for $10 per ounce inclusive of premiums (or even less), then they should wait.
If people think silver is going to say, $40 or higher, is there much of a difference between buying now and waiting for a "bottom"? I guess if one is buying 1000's of ounces it could make a difference, assuming you can get silver that cheap when the paper price does fall.
To address your points:
The fed's hike will cause metals to rally (medium term) - but not immediately! PMs will fall from this announcement.
Conventional wisdom is : don't buy an asset that's been falling in value for 5 years. Wait for support!!!
Why does silver need to be "$10 inclusive of premiums" for me to get it WAY cheaper than it is now?
That example is pretty extreme mate. lol !!!
I generally like dollar cost averaging, but I've decided to stop buying more until we see something turn around.
One doesn't need to buy "1000's of ounces" to get a much better deal as the price KEEPS FALLING.
By holding off....I will have got FAR more ounces for my money.
Silver isn't going to the moon overnight. Period.
-j-p-shmorgan
New Member
And just to add to what I've stated above....
Do I think silver is a bargain? Yes.
Will I be able to buy it cheaper by waiting, thus accumulating more ounces? Yes.
Do I think silver is a bargain? Yes.
Will I be able to buy it cheaper by waiting, thus accumulating more ounces? Yes.
The Black Ram
New Member
-j-p-shmorgan said:
That's a very specific prediction. What if the FED goes Japanese and just doesn't raise rates? Or PMs don't rally (medium term) after a rate hike because the stock market starts to crash?
I have heard these kinds of predictions before, just like when people said that China would announce that they had 4000+ tons of gold which would send the price to the moon. That one was based on a lot of graphs of imports. But China just announced 1,658 tons and now the gold price is falling. Don't predict, just stack.
-j-p-shmorgan
New Member
The Black Ram said:
Regardless of the fed's move....metals have been in a down-trend for 5 years.
Why should I rush out and buy before seeing any type of reversal?
China has 30,000 tons. They are playing the stacking game as well.
Jim4silver
Well-Known Member
-j-p-shmorgan said:Jim4silver said:-j-p-shmorgan said:All these kids thought I was nuts for not buying.....
Everyone says raising rates will cause PM's to fall, I don't think that will necessarily be the case. But first, I don't think they will raise rates. But if they do, don't assume PM's will fall. Everyone also said when the Fed stopped the QE the stock market would crash, but it gained like crazy after they stopped QE, even though it had a few dips at first.
Conventional wisdom does not seem to apply anymore.
I guess if people think they can buy silver someday for $10 per ounce inclusive of premiums (or even less), then they should wait.
If people think silver is going to say, $40 or higher, is there much of a difference between buying now and waiting for a "bottom"? I guess if one is buying 1000's of ounces it could make a difference, assuming you can get silver that cheap when the paper price does fall.
To address your points:
The fed's hike will cause metals to rally (medium term) - but not immediately! PMs will fall from this announcement.
Conventional wisdom is : don't buy an asset that's been falling in value for 5 years. Wait for support!!!
Why does silver need to be "$10 inclusive of premiums" for me to get it WAY cheaper than it is now?
That example is pretty extreme mate. lol !!!
I generally like dollar cost averaging, but I've decided to stop buying more until we see something turn around.
One doesn't need to buy "1000's of ounces" to get a much better deal as the price KEEPS FALLING.
By holding off....I will have got FAR more ounces for my money.
Silver isn't going to the moon overnight. Period.
We all base our opinions on future price movement on assumptions we make. I think many are assuming silver is going to keep falling, maybe go to $12, or $10, or $9, etc. But you really don't know that as a fact. Many also assume if silver keeps dropping in this current move, that there will be adequate metal available at a cheaper price than we have now. My local stores that have silver are charging $3+ over on generic crap bars/rounds. The other stores are all out except for really pricey stuff like Pandas, etc. The stores that are out have 3 to 4 week waits for bullion orders placed today. One dealer I spoke to today said they have "pre-sold" over 10,000 ounces just in the past few days. If we keep dropping, even more buying will kick in. I like to buy and walk out with my metals in hand, no way will I do any pre-pay orders like that.
One assumption I make in my price projections, which is based on past silver movements during the bull run from 2001 to 2011, is that when silver does finally bottom, it reverses up fairly quick. I don't mean it will double, etc, but get back fast to a level that was support before the final correction. If we bottom out at $12, I believe that price will hit $15 to $16 or so fairly quick, that is once we do finally bottom once and for all. And if $14 turned out to the be bottom, we would shoot up to $18 or so quickly.
My view is (and I may turn out wrong, won't be first time) that the powers that be that are shorting silver now will reverse course at some point and drive the price up again like they did from 2010 to 2011. I don't think this future run up will be due to excessive demand for physical per se (at least not initially) but will be another up run for fun and profit in the paper/derivatives markets by those who have large amounts of $$$$ to drive leveraged bets higher at will (or lower if they want, like now). Further, they have to keep the paper game going, and that game allows someone to take delivery if they pony of the money, etc. If it ever happens that they can't deliver silver because the physical price is much higher than the paper price, they would be able to settle in cash legally (force majeure, etc), but that would be considered a default, and they don't want that to happen. So they have to be able to deliver at close to spot on Comex, etc, no matter how low it goes.
Just my opinion.
Jim
-j-p-shmorgan
New Member
Jim4silver said:
While I'm not familiar with "force majeure"....
I agree with everything you've stated 100%.
I plan to enter the market soon, at the best price possible.
People say you can't buy at the bottom.....well....you can.
-j-p-shmorgan
New Member
I watch prices daily. I think I'll have a pretty good idea on when to unload fiat for silver.
...and when I do...my investment will be increasing in value daily.
(As I'm waiting on substantial support / rally to buy in)
....Instead of dollar cost averaging down to $8 silver....lulz
...and when I do...my investment will be increasing in value daily.
(As I'm waiting on substantial support / rally to buy in)
....Instead of dollar cost averaging down to $8 silver....lulz