Brexit Play

My guess is Britain's future has to some degree been finalised with the exit. The uncertainty is with other EU nations coming out in force wanting to do the same. There's more for the EU to lose from the fall out so the markets front-running see Europe as having more downside risk.
 
Caput Lupinum said:
Still have puts on the FTSE 100 open
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Trade has been closed at 6075. Tidy profit, but not as good as I thought it may be

EUR/USD is all that's left. Stop loss is at 1.1210 so still room to move. Want to see continued selling below 1.1100
 
BuggedOut said:
Caput Lupinum said:
Deutsche Bank in particular may be screwed
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Aha! Maybe that's why the markets are so scared of Brexit.

Deutsche Bank is a definite black swan candidate.....
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Apparently George Soros took a big short position on Deutsche Bank:

Soros Wagered Deutsche Bank Would Drop in Brexit Turmoil

Soros Fund Management took a short position in Deutsche Bank AG of about 7 million shares as turmoil from the U.K.'s decision to leave the European Union sent bank stocks lower.

The position taken on Friday was equivalent to 0.51 percent of Deutsche Bank's share capital, according to a German filing published on Monday. The document doesn't show at which price the fund took the position.

Deutsche Bank shares fell 16 percent at the open on Friday and closed down 14 percent at 13.37 euros. Their highest price that day was 13.95 euros. At that level, a 0.51 percent stake would be worth about 98 million euros ($108 million). After extending losses on Monday, the shares were trading 4.5 percent higher at 10 a.m. Tuesday in Frankfurt.
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Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ed-deutsche-bank-would-drop-in-brexit-turmoil
 
whinfell said:
BuggedOut said:
Caput Lupinum said:
Deutsche Bank in particular may be screwed
Click to expand...

Aha! Maybe that's why the markets are so scared of Brexit.

Deutsche Bank is a definite black swan candidate.....
Click to expand...

Apparently George Soros took a big short position on Deutsche Bank:

Soros Wagered Deutsche Bank Would Drop in Brexit Turmoil

Soros Fund Management took a short position in Deutsche Bank AG of about 7 million shares as turmoil from the U.K.'s decision to leave the European Union sent bank stocks lower.

The position taken on Friday was equivalent to 0.51 percent of Deutsche Bank's share capital, according to a German filing published on Monday. The document doesn't show at which price the fund took the position.

Deutsche Bank shares fell 16 percent at the open on Friday and closed down 14 percent at 13.37 euros. Their highest price that day was 13.95 euros. At that level, a 0.51 percent stake would be worth about 98 million euros ($108 million). After extending losses on Monday, the shares were trading 4.5 percent higher at 10 a.m. Tuesday in Frankfurt.
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Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ed-deutsche-bank-would-drop-in-brexit-turmoil
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I wonder whether he's already sold his position. It's pretty telling of the future of the bank if Soros is confident in shorting it and shorting it over other European and British banks
 
I found it interesting that US bonds were keeping the dollar strong enough to nearly negate the initial spike in PM in terms of USD. Today the spike cannot be overcome. However if treasuries continue to be bid the USD will become too strong. The FED will have to do something to weaken the dollar. Helicopter money, negative interest rates, QE, I'm not sure what but PM in USD should be lifted by any dollar devaluation.
 
BuggedOut said:
Caput Lupinum said:
Deutsche Bank in particular may be screwed
Click to expand...

Aha! Maybe that's why the markets are so scared of Brexit.

Deutsche Bank is a definite black swan candidate.....
Click to expand...

It seems that the IMF agrees with me ;)

IMF said:
Deutsche Bank appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks, followed by HSBC and Credit Suisse
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...k-poses-greatest-risk-global-financial-system
 
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