Bitcoin is legal tender in El Salvador from today

yeah because the central bank can just print more bitcoins beacuse its made out of thin air? makes sense rite?
 
TreasureHunter said:
On the charts it looks like Bitcoin's second bubble is about to pop. Multiple coins dropped significantly today.

I don't know about this spectacular rise that everyone is talking about... it looks more like a second "hump" and in the last few hours it started to point downwards. 47,000 USD per BTC right now.
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If you're listening to the right people it's pretty common knowledge that institutions are pulling the strings in the current climate and the top of the trading range was ~ $52k where it was expected to top out to lure retail investors in to short against. Still a strong belief that $20k will happen before another high. That would be a good entry point (between 20-30, taking into account whatever trend has formed). But if it created a new base >$52k then all bets would be off.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
Agree.

There are a variety of schools of economic thought as to what makes good money.

However, at least one branch argues that deflationary currencies like Bitcoin do not make sound money because of their contractionary nature. The amount of BTC available to consumers cannot be inflated or deflated as required in response to market forces. BTC may be touted as "true money" by some, but even when its price stabilises in whatever future decade that occurs, it will fail as money because it cannot be regulated by the market process.
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It's incorrect to say it contracts. The supply is slowly expanding. The key point is that it is infinitely divisible in a way that our current money is not. That is very important in a highly deflationary environment.

As far as economic schools of thought, it's hard to take most modern economic thought seriously. There's a reason why it's called the dismal science. I mostly just stick to the Austrian School. Maybe some would call that biased but I think most of the non-Austrian stuff, particularly the current mainstream, is nonsense. Mostly because it starts with the assumption that fiat money and central banking are valid, indisputable concepts rather than questioning that assumption.
 
TreasureHunter said:
On the charts it looks like Bitcoin's second bubble is about to pop. Multiple coins dropped significantly today.

I don't know about this spectacular rise that everyone is talking about... it looks more like a second "hump" and in the last few hours it started to point downwards. 47,000 USD per BTC right now.
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Second bubble? When was the first?

For anyone thinking Bitcoin is simply a bubble a look at the chart over the last 12 years should give them pause. It's clear something different is happening which calls for a different explanation.
 
Gold is a currency in the mining world and is traded for regularly as money.
Theres really no formula involved except whatever is agreed on based on spot and that the gold is not 24k.

It's not as common anywhere else that I know of.
 
@hawkeye1 This argument between 2 members who are both at their grass roots level Austrians has occurred before. Mises and Rothbard v Hayek. You’re Mises or Rothbard (“Misbard”) and I’m Hayek. :p

@hawkeye1 said:
The supply is slowly expanding.
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For now, but as time goes on, the supply of new BTC will dwindle and eventually stop. Add an increasing number locked in staking or for use in smart contracts and the supply of BTC as currency is most likely to contract. This is great for those holding BTC because it’s likely to keep it’s value rising, like most assets, but terrible for those who don’t have any.

@hawkeye1 said:
The key point is that it is infinitely divisible in a way that our current money is not. That is very important in a highly deflationary environment.
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You mean like this?

-1x-1.jpg


;)

So the BTC approach to the market demand for more or less money is just “move” the decimal point?

@hawkeye1[/QUOTE said:
Mostly because it starts with the assumption that fiat money and central banking are valid, indisputable concepts rather than questioning that assumption.
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Back to Hayek v “Misbard”, Hayek argues that money should be subject to the same laws and demand as other market goods. And the best way to do that he argues is a fiat system based on fractional reserve banking in the hands of the private sector.

Kind of similar to what we have now with privately issued money from banks, but instead of the government setting the value of money, private companies determine the need to inflate or deflate the money supply in response to demand or lack thereof from the market with an idea to ensuring that individual’s purchasing power remains stable.
 
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heartastack said:
If you're listening to the right people it's pretty common knowledge that institutions are pulling the strings in the current climate and the top of the trading range was ~ $52k where it was expected to top out to lure retail investors in to short against. Still a strong belief that $20k will happen before another high. That would be a good entry point (between 20-30, taking into account whatever trend has formed). But if it created a new base >$52k then all bets would be off.
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I agree that 20-30 k might be the next bottom. I think it's logical for the second hump to be somewhat smaller and then for Bitcoin to take a deep dip.

I can also imagine it sinking down to 10 k, then it could trade sideways for as long as several years (as it did a few years before).

And yes, after more people adopt it (and other coins), the price will rise powerfully, I don't see why 1 million $ would be a problem, because for it to be a real currency, it needs MASSIVE market cap.
 
I think what's next is Honduras: they will adopt it soon.

And if they do, then countless others will follow and I can't see why many African countries, buy even Venezuela, Iran could act similarly.
 
@hawkeye1, the beauty of a pluralist society is that if the State does allow private companies to issue currencies you can have your BTC or gold backed currencies, hell I want some of that (not that I'd be likely to spend with it) and I'll stick to my privately issued, fractional-reserve fiat to retain my purchasing power and pay for the milk and bread.
 
Jimmy1986 said:
Lets have a look at it in another month, time will tell.
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Of course. I am a strong believer that now because of wider adoption and the entry of the (dumb) masses the entire crypto market will take off.

The market caps will have to rise. Think of the major fiat currencies, not just the US Dollar, but the Japanese Yen, the Australian Dollar, Swiss Frank - what "market cap" or total value do they have?

We would have to look at the money supply of a smaller major currency like the CHF, which is around 724 trillion CHF = 786 trillion USD


Now, let's compare the CHF Money Supply with the BTC Market Capitalization:

CHF: 786 trillion $
BTC: 876 billion $

So, if Bitcoin surpasses the CHF, it could reach a value 1,000x its current value. It must have an increase around 1,000x in order to simply surpass the CHF.

Then, 1 single BTC could be worth 45-50 million USD.

Hard to believe?

It's logical thinking.

But if Bitcoin would take on the USD, EUR, GBP, Yuan, JPY, CHF etc., then this figure could be far higher!
 
mmm....shiney! said:
I either don't listen to the right people or don't pay enough attention, which people are those @heartastack ?
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Nothing special, mate. I'm still not in any crypto so don't subscribe to any analysts just keep a keen watch on who is right and wrong on my kitco et all playlists on the way to work. Garath Soloway has been pretty good with BTC technically the last few months. One of his mates summarises this week well:

 
TreasureHunter said:
I think what's next is Honduras: they will adopt it soon.

And if they do, then countless others will follow and I can't see why many African countries, buy even Venezuela, Iran could act similarly.
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This reminds me of a fictional bitcoin story I once read.

"The African Union had ambitious plans to help its citizens be ready to step over to Bitcoin. Governments gave their own citizens cell phones for free, tied to their government ID, and thus government sought to integrate Bitcoin into their economy. All went well, until "the tragedy" that is. A criminal organization, believed to be located in Russia, exploited a hardware fault in the government issued cell phones. It's believed that the entire continent of Africa lost an estimated 60% of its wealth in a period of 48 hours."

I am sending this message from the year 2025. Things are looking bleak here, and some of you will carry blood on your hands.

If you don't believe me, please move on, as I have no way of proving to you I'm really who I claim to be.

I don't want to waste any of your time, so I'm merely going to explain what happened.

On average, every year so far, the value of Bitcoin has increased by about a factor ten. From 0.1 dollar in 2010, to 1 dollar in 2011, to 10 dollar in 2012, to 100 dollar in 2013. From now on, there's a slight slowdown, as the value increased by a factor ten every two years, to 1,000 dollar in 2015, to 10,000 in 2017, 100,000 in 2019, and 1,000,000 in 2021. From here onwards, there's no good way of expressing its value in dollars, as the dollar is no longer used, nor is any central bank issued currency for that matter. There are two main forms of wealth in today's world. Land and cryptocurrency.

There are just over 19 million Bitcoin known to be used in the world today, as well as a few hundred thousand that were permanently lost, and we're still dealing with a population of just over 7 billion people today. On average, this means the average person owns just under 0.003 bitcoin. However, due to the unequal distribution of wealth in my world, the mean person owns just 0.001 bitcoin. That's right, most of you reading this today are rich. I personally live next to an annoying young man who logged into his old Reddit account two years ago and discovered that he received a tip of 0.01 Bitcoin back in 2013 for calling someone a "faggot" when he was a 16 year old boy. Upon making this discovery he bought an airline ticket, left his house without telling anyone anything and went to a Citadel.

"What is a Citadel?" you might wonder. Well, by the time Bitcoin became worth 1,000 dollar, services began to emerge for the "Bitcoin rich" to protect themselves as well as their wealth. It started with expensive safes, then began to include bodyguards, and today, "earlies" (our term for early adapters), as well as those rich whose wealth survived the "transition" live in isolated gated cities called Citadels, where most work is automated. Most such Citadels are born out of the fortification used to protect places where Bitcoin mining machines are located. The company known as ASICminer to you is known to me as a city where Mr. Friedman rules as a king.

In my world, soon to be your world, most governments no longer exist, as Bitcoin transactions are done anonymously and thus most governments can enforce no taxation on their citizens. Most of the success of Bitcoin is due to the fact that Bitcoin turned out to be an effective method to hide your wealth from the government. Whereas people entering "rogue states" like Luxemberg, Monaco and Liechtenstein were followed by unmanned drones to ensure that governments know who is hiding wealth, no such option was available to stop people from hiding their money in Bitcoin.

Governments tried to stay relevant in my society by buying Bitcoin, which just made the problem worse, by increasing the value of Bitcoin. Governments did so in secret of course, but my generation's "Snowdens" are in fact greedy government employees who transferred Bitcoin to their own private account, and escaped to anarchic places where no questions are asked as long as you can cough up some money.

The four institutions with the largest still accessible Bitcoin balance are believed to be as following:

-ASICminer - 50,000 Bitcoin

-The IMF's "currency stabilization fund" - 70,000 Bitcoin

-Government of Saudi Arabia - 110,000 Bitcoin

-The North Korean government - 180,000 Bitcoin

Economic growth today is about -2% per year. Why is this? If you own more than 0.01 Bitcoin, chances are you don't do anything with your money. There is no inflation, and thus no incentive to invest your money. Just like the medieval ages had no significant economic growth, as wealth was measured in gold, our society has no economic growth either, as people know their 0.01 Bitcoin will be enough to last them a lifetime. The fact that there are still new Bitcoin released is what prevents our world from collapse so far it seems, but people fear that the decline in inflation that will occur during the next block halving may further wreck our economy.

What happened to the Winklevoss twins? The Winklevoss twins were among the first to die. After seeing the enormous damage done to the fabric of society, terrorist movements emerged that sought to hunt down and murder anyone known to have a large balance of Bitcoin, or believed to be responsible in any way for the development of cryptocurrency. Ironically, these terrorist movements use Bitcoin to anonymously fund their operations.

Most people who own any significant amount of Bitcoin no longer speak to their families and lost their friends, because they had to change their identities. There have been also been a few suicides of people who could not handle the guilt after seeing what happened to the bag-holders, the type of skeptical people who continued to believe it would eventually collapse, even after hearing the rumors of governments buying Bitcoin. Many people were taken hostage, and thus, it is suspected that 25% percent of "Bitcoin rich" actually physically tortured someone to get him to spill his password.

Why didn't we abandon Bitcoin, and move to another system? Well, we tried of course. We tried to step over to an inflationary cryptocurrency, but nobody with an IQ above 70 was willing to step up first and volunteer. After all, why would you voluntarily invest a lot of your money into a currency where you know your wealth will continually decline? The thing that made Bitcoin so dangerous to society was also what made it so successful. Bitcoin allows us to give into our greed.

In Africa, surveys show that an estimated 70% of people believe that Bitcoin was invented by the devil himself. There's a reason for this. It's a very sensitive issue that today is generally referred to as "the tragedy". The African Union had ambitious plans to help its citizens be ready to step over to Bitcoin. Governments gave their own citizens cell phones for free, tied to their government ID, and thus government sought to integrate Bitcoin into their economy. All went well, until "the tragedy" that is. A criminal organization, believed to be located in Russia, exploited a hardware fault in the government issued cell phones. It's believed that the entire continent of Africa lost an estimated 60% of its wealth in a period of 48 hours. What followed was a period of chaos and civil war, until the Saudi Arabian and North Korean governments, two of the world's major superpowers due to their authoritarian political system's unique ability to adapt to the "Bitcoin challenge", divided most African land between themselves and were praised as heroes by the local African population for it.

You might wonder, what is our plan now? It's clear that the current situation can not be sustained, without ending in a nuclear holocaust. I am part of an underground network, who seek to launch a coordinated attack against the very infrastructure of the Internet itself. We have at our disposal about 20 nuclear submarines, which we will use to cut all underwater cables between different continents. After this has been successfully achieved, we will launch a simultaneous nuclear pulse attack on every densely population area of the world. We believe that the resulting chaos will allow the world's population to rise up in revolt, and destroy as many computers out there as possible, until we reach the point where Bitcoin loses any relevance.

Of course, this outcome will likely lead to billions of deaths. This is a price we are forced to pay, to avoid the eternal enslavement of humanity to a tiny elite.

This is also the reason we contacted you.

It doesn't have to be like this. You do not have to share our fate. I don't know how, but you must find a way to destroy this godforsaken project in its infancy. I know this is a difficult thing to ask of you. You believed you were helping the world by eliminating the central banking cartel that governs your economies.

However, I have seen where it ends.
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Holdfast said:
Is anyone concerned that artificial intelligence "could" steal your coins or mine the remaining coins?
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You may need to expand a little on what you mean by "artificial intelligence". Machines? Hackers using machines?

And what methods you see these subversive players gaining access to someone's wallet.
 
Holdfast said:
Shiney, not necessarliy now but in the future. Quantum computers, machine learning.
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Ok. If and when it happens then I guess encryption is busted. Or maybe it won't be.

This is a good quote from a very good read:

Nanalyze said:
Quantum computing is like high school sex. Everyone says they’re doing it because they think everyone else is. For the few that are, it’s not as great as they say it is. And the only people that actually know how to do it properly are the teachers who never really talk about it.
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https://www.nanalyze.com/2021/08/quantum-computing-stocks/

So for the time being I'm not concerned because it may not be happening and if it is there isn't anything I can do about it anyway.
 
Holdfast said:
Is anyone concerned that artificial intelligence "could" steal your coins
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Not really, because artificial intelligence still wouldn't have the computing power necessary.

Brute forcing a 12 word secret phrase from a 2048 word list: each guess has a 1 in 2048¹², or 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000184% chance of being correct. If you could make a trillion guesses per second on each of a trillion computers, it would take the lifetime of the universe so far to have a decent shot at it.

Brute forcing a 24 word secret phrase from a 2048 word list: each guess has a 1 in 2048²⁴ chance of being correct. It would take 2048¹² as many computers, or 2048¹² universes, as the 12 word secret, to brute force it.
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underestimating the low fees and instant settlements that fast food multinationals are now transacting on a completely separate network to traditional payment providers.
 
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