Big Down for Gold and Silver Overnight

I’d say it’s been the trigger needed to really get the negative sentiment into gear. All the factors that lead to the Dow crashing and PM’s surging around late July/early August have essentially reversed now.

  • Trade talks seem to be progressing, as you mentioned
  • The 2 year/10 year yield curve that was inverted, has rebounded well and is at 8 week highs
  • MSM hasn’t been reporting as much on the HK/Middle East situations, so the fear factor that lead to casual investors heading into PM’s has subsided a bit. Just watch, they’ll head back into stocks now that the Dow as at all time highs and they try and chase it up :rolleyes:
I’m keen to see what will happen tomorrow, whether we get the usual Friday selloff in PM’s or there’s enough sentiment for a short term buying opportunity and we get a rebound in price.
 
66rounds said:
Let's see where we close at today, we have broken 1475 so hoping it may be a sign of the prophesised correction. Sub-2k AUD thread soon?
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I'm holding off with my spare cash at the moment to see what both gold and silver will do. If it booms then I won't be disappointed because I already have plenty. If it busts then I'll jump in, the only question is at what level...

For physical, 1kg bars might drop under AU$800 soon. Wasn't that long ago they were well over $900.
 
SilverDJ said:
I'm holding off with my spare cash at the moment to see what both gold and silver will do. If it booms then I won't be disappointed because I already have plenty. If it busts then I'll jump in, the only question is at what level...

For physical, 1kg bars might drop under AU$800 soon. Wasn't that long ago they were well over $900.
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Silverling said:
That's the six million dollar question, same thoughts here.
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I will start looking to buy once we hit 2100 AUD and will back up the truck at 2k. if pickings are slim I will move into unallocated for now
 
66rounds said:
I will start looking to buy once we hit 2100 AUD and will back up the truck at 2k. if pickings are slim I will move into unallocated for now
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Pretty sure I'd start average buying if it hit $2k. I don't see the AUD getting better, so I see little chance of downside pressure from a rising AUD.
 
I was taking some comfort this article...
https://www.goldbroker.com/news/silver-double-bottom-before-any-cyclical-upward-movement-1673

The long-term silver chart shows - before any cyclical upward movement - an important element: a large double bottom. Not a double bottom for a short period, but for a long period. The period between the two lows varies between 2 and 4-5 years. The previous bottom was around the end of 2015 and, in fact, after 4 years we see an important reaction that broke a bearish trendline from the 2011 top. Buying the second bottom has always given - in subsequent years - strong gains (minimum +65% - max +1000%).

silver-double-bottom.png
 
Gonzo said:
I was taking some comfort this article...
https://www.goldbroker.com/news/silver-double-bottom-before-any-cyclical-upward-movement-1673

The long-term silver chart shows - before any cyclical upward movement - an important element: a large double bottom. Not a double bottom for a short period, but for a long period. The period between the two lows varies between 2 and 4-5 years. The previous bottom was around the end of 2015 and, in fact, after 4 years we see an important reaction that broke a bearish trendline from the 2011 top. Buying the second bottom has always given - in subsequent years - strong gains (minimum +65% - max +1000%).

silver-double-bottom.png
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So it's now or never to buy silver?
 
66rounds said:
So it's now or never to buy silver?
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Given that industrial demand is not climbing, look at say the 15year graph I can't see much reason for it to go up much based on that. If anything, the 2 year graph shows it's teetering on the edge of a drop.
So I'd say a reasonably confident no to "now or never".

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price's of silver/gold got slapped out of the cloud so expect a short-term smackdown mid to long-term are still looking bullish in my view.
 
Honestly I think we'll see it trend lower.

Between now and the 2020 US election, I'm guessing, there will be trade deals announced, rate cuts and even the suggestion of QE. All of which will drive up confidence and the markets.

Then when Trump gets re-elected...... The wheels fall off.

Just a thought.... because it's obvious that this is Trumps current strategy.

Edit : I woke up this morning and saw the PM drop. Didn't even need to check to know it was related to China. Expect lots of ups and downs over the next few months. Seriously, how f... ed up is it that tweets can have such an impact. Crazy times people....
 
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Gonzo said:
I was taking some comfort this article...
https://www.goldbroker.com/news/silver-double-bottom-before-any-cyclical-upward-movement-1673
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Don't take too much comfort - of the 4 previous patterns labelled "double bottoms", only one of them could technically possibly be considered an actual double bottom.
In other words, the author of this article doesn't understand what he is looking at - so it follows that he also don't understand why he is saying what he is saying, or suggesting what he is suggesting.
It gives the article zero credibility, and obviates the probability that he is a permabull speaking out of his ass, and grasping at straws.
 
No offence to the Chartist movement, as I was once one of them and successfully so.

But all trading is now run from news algorithms.... That's why Trumps tweets have such an impact.

Charts were once self fulfilling prophecies.... But no longer.
 
Silver260 said:
No offence to the Chartist movement, as I was once one of them and successfully so.

But all trading is now run from news algorithms.... That's why Trumps tweets have such an impact.

Charts were once self fulfilling prophecies.... But no longer.
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That's fine by me, no offense taken.
I don't care what algorithms are impacting price, because I have never treated charting as a prophecy or prediction - I treat it as a game of probability and risk management, and it is still making me plenty.
I'd suggest if you were successful in the past, then you'd still be successful now, because the same principles apply. :)
 
wrcmad said:
That's fine by me, no offense taken.
I don't care what algorithms are impacting price, because I have never treated charting as a prophecy or prediction - I treat it as a game of probability and risk management, and it is still making me plenty.
I'd suggest if you were successful in the past, then you'd still be successful now, because the same principles apply. :)
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Don't get me wrong, I still have a love of charts. Nothing gets me excited like a good head....and shoulders.... Lol.

George Soros wrote a fantastic book in the 80's called the Alchemy of Finance, based on the theory of reflexivity. Basically an examination of the impact of human emotions on market prices ( an oversimplification) .

But its the introduction of computers in this equation that has destroyed my faith.... If that makes sense :)
 
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