Barefoot- Stackers, Their Wives and Stocks

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I know a few here read the Barefoot Investor and can imagine a few more can probably relate to the story about the wife, especially when their "investment" has lost money. So own up, who is it?

Faults in the Vault

(Not Silver)Peter was in strife with his wife. I knew this because she emailed me for advice using the headline 'My Husband Is an Idiot'.

A few years ago, Peter, in his mid-forties, opened a Self Managed Super Fund (SMSF) with his wife, and invested the lot in gold. Today they've lost about $35,000, and his wife -- a nurse, who dutifully transferred out of a low-cost industry fund -- is livid. So I called them up, and managed to speak to them together.

This week the gold price touched six year lows. Peter, however, was having none of it: "The US Federal Reserve is printing too many dollars. The entire financial system is one giant Ponzi scheme, built on the back of fiat [paper] money. When it collapses, people will revert back to the one true store of wealth: gold."

"He subscribes to this stupid email newsletter that talks endlessly about impending economic Armageddon ", says his wife. :lol:

"... and they correctly picked the Global Financial Crisis", Peter interjects.

Being the marital umpire, I gave Peter a penalty: a quick search of the interwebs suggested that his newsletter gurus had been warning about a crash for years (and, just like a busted clock, they were bound to be right -- eventually).


Should You Buy Gold? When you see a gold bar in person, it's easy to see why it's transfixed people throughout time -- and I've seen more gold in the flesh than most people. yet the truth is, it's also been a terrible investment.



Famed Wharton finance Professor Jeremy Siegel keeps long-term (inflation-adjusted) returns of various asset classes, dating all the way back to January 1802. He found that if you put one US dollar under your bed in 1802, it's purchasing power would have been eroded to just 5 cents by December 2013.

What about if you'd invested that dollar in gold? The Professor says it would be worth $3.21 today.

What if you'd invested that dollar into the share market? It would have compounded to a staggering $930,550. (Forget specifics, hindsight is wonderful :rolleyes: )

It makes sense when you think about it. Other than looking pretty, gold doesn't actually produce anything. You can't rent it out, and it pays no dividend. There is no compounding.

The only way you can make money is by getting someone to pay more for it than you did.Stocks, on the other hand, are a collection of the businesses that compete to sell us our Model T Fords, our iPhones and our Big Macs. And over the past 200 years, it's been a wildly successful ride: we've gone from horses and carts, to flying through the air, to walking on the moon.

Yet there is a cheap, simple no-brainer way to ride the coming revolution: just buy a low-cost, tax-efficient index fund that tracks the 500 largest companies in America -- otherwise known as the S&P 500 (it can be bought like any other stock on the Australian Securities Exchange under the ticker IVV.ASX).

As new businesses emerge and grow in value, they're added to the portfolio (read: Facebook), in the same way that as existing stocks drop off (read: Kodak), they're deleted.

A few years ago, Warren Buffett (who famously views gold as a 'stupid investment'), announced in his will that, on his death, 90 per cent of his wealth is to be invested in an S&P 500 index fund for his wife.
 
A telling and (at least to stackers) depressing evaluation. As for the Mr and Mrs.... It sounds to me like the divorce lawyers will end up getting the gold.
 
Barefoot Investor is a great admirer of Buffet and I'm surprised he hasn't picked up on the fact that Buffet is buying assets and holding a giant amount of cash. BI continues to plug the standard version of shares always do best and he's for holding because things always get better and losses are regained.

He has good advice for avoiding debt and he did a nice hatchet job on the housing circumstance a few weeks back, but I don't share his optimism.

If the goldstacker is here - then time will prove you're right - tell your wife we all agree.

:D
 
As far as the stacker in the article (be they real or fictional), I agree with the wife. Stupid decision. I like fold as much as the next guy, but you shouldn't go all in...
 
House said:
A few years ago, Warren Buffett (who famously views gold as a 'stupid investment'), announced in his will that, on his death, 90 per cent of his wealth is to be invested in an S&P 500 index fund for his wife.

When the S&P 500 crashes under $1,000 again - I may be interested.
 
AngloSaxon said:
You shouldn't put everything you have into one investment. Basic investing 101.

Sound advice. I put a portion of money the wife and I had in silver at 37$ and have been buying all the way down to 14$. Stupid? Possibly. Does she think i"m an idiot? Some of the time. Will she want a divorce over it? Not a chance. I really cannot find fault in Peter's thinking. Mathematically, many nation's finances are in the toilet. Anyone that studies exponents realizes the debt explosion cannot go on indefinitely. I would not feel good if all my investments/ "assets" were solely in paper.
 
2 people made the choice, she didn't need to join the smsf or agree to invest in gold and only has herself to blame.
 
For most of the 1800's right through the 30's $1 of gold was around 1.4 grams, or about $49USD today. Throughout that period up until the mis 20th C. 1 was .02354oz of gold or 163 new pounds today for an increase of 68 times (1 old pound = 2.4 new pounds). So you are looking at a range of between 50-68 times the $1 or you put in. Where the hell did this guy get $3.21?
Indeed you could still buy a sovereign for 1 Australian in many people's lifetimes, today that's $353 worth at spot and at $2 for every 1 it's an increase of 176 times. Even if you go back to when they stopped minting them here in Australia in 1931 you are looking at a better than 200% annuallised return at today's prices over that period with no risk at all of default, currency crash, bankruptcy, corporate legal action or other stock market nastyness

Meanwhile only a very small fraction of the companies that existed in 1802 or even 1900 around today, there's a serious risk. Obviously in a healthy economy you should have equities in your portfolio but it's wholly disingenuous to say that shares have a similar risk profile to gold but that they just perform better, it's a nonsense.
 
-j-p-shmorgan said:
House said:
A few years ago, Warren Buffett (who famously views gold as a 'stupid investment'), announced in his will that, on his death, 90 per cent of his wealth is to be invested in an S&P 500 index fund for his wife.

When the S&P 500 crashes under $1,000 again - I may be interested.


If you believe that the S&P 500 is priced in dollars you have more serious problems
 
Caput Lupinum said:
-j-p-shmorgan said:
House said:
A few years ago, Warren Buffett (who famously views gold as a 'stupid investment'), announced in his will that, on his death, 90 per cent of his wealth is to be invested in an S&P 500 index fund for his wife.

When the S&P 500 crashes under $1,000 again - I may be interested.

If you believe that the S&P 500 is priced in dollars you have more serious problems

Everything has a dollar value, no?
 
AngloSaxon said:
You shouldn't put everything you have into one investment. Basic investing 101.

I Agree. Sure there is a huge debt build up in the system, however it does not then mean that the system will collapse straight away. This could go on for ages before anything happens. How is this guy going to pay for his retirement on an ongoing basis without a growing balance from dividends and income? His future is now 100% tied to the outcome of Gold whatever that may be. A percentage of Silver and Gold is important in a portfolio, but 100% is cray cray.
 
Maybe I'm missing the point but it would seem that, from the highs of 2011, Australian folk who purchased gold aren't that far out of pocket.

As we speak an ounce of gold in AUD is $1485 AUD.

Highest gold price in AUD, $1806.08 - 22 Aug 2011.

http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html

1806 -1485 = 321
 
There is also the opportunity loss probably not calculated in, which I usually just calculate as interest from an online savings account. In this case that would probably be between 10-20k
 
He found that if you put one US dollar under your bed in 1802, it's purchasing power would have been eroded to just 5 cents by December 2013.

Bit of a weird point in time to choose shouldn't they look at purchasing since 1971 when the US removed the gold standard ? They are comparing bacon to oranges by comparing 1802 gold back currency to 2013 fiat.


In 1971, the relative value of $1.00 from 2014 ranges from $0.07 to $0.22.

You have lost alot more then 5c you have lost from 78% of the value to 93% of the value


In 1971 you could buy an oz of gold for $37.87 so for $1 you can buy 1/37.87 = 0.02640612622128333773435437021389 of an oz or 0.8 grams (rounded down)

for $1 you get 0.8 grams of gold which is worth now $27.90

= 2790% increase in worth


Jan 1971 S&P 500 Index closed at 95.88 s&p 500 is now 2,098.04 = 21.88

= 2188% increase in worth


Overall since getting rid of the gold standard


GOLD is the biggest winner it has increase the highest percentage it has increased more then the s&p 500 index and it well there is no comparison to putting $1 under your bed
 
Holdfast said:
Maybe I'm missing the point but it would seem that, from the highs of 2011, Australian folk who purchased gold aren't that far out of pocket.

As we speak an ounce of gold in AUD is $1485 AUD.

Highest gold price in AUD, $1806.08 - 22 Aug 2011.

http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html

1806 -1485 = 321

Revils said:
There is also the opportunity loss probably not calculated in, which I usually just calculate as interest from an online savings account. In this case that would probably be between 10-20k

I rate opportunity cost way higher than bank interest.... as nobody rates bank interest anymore.
See here if you think you are not far out of pocket since 2011. ;) : http://forums.silverstackers.com/message-827592.html#p827592
 
volrathy said:
He found that if you put one US dollar under your bed in 1802, it's purchasing power would have been eroded to just 5 cents by December 2013.

Bit of a weird point in time to choose shouldn't they look at purchasing since 1971 when the US removed the gold standard ? They are comparing bacon to oranges by comparing 1802 gold back currency to 2013 fiat.


In 1971, the relative value of $1.00 from 2014 ranges from $0.07 to $0.22.

You have lost alot more then 5c you have lost from 78% of the value to 93% of the value


In 1971 you could buy an oz of gold for $37.87 so for $1 you can buy 1/37.87 = 0.02640612622128333773435437021389 of an oz or 0.8 grams (rounded down)

for $1 you get 0.8 grams of gold which is worth now $27.90

= 2790% increase in worth


Jan 1971 S&P 500 Index closed at 95.88 s&p 500 is now 2,098.04 = 21.88

= 2188% increase in worth


Overall since getting rid of the gold standard


GOLD is the biggest winner it has increase the highest percentage it has increased more then the s&p 500 index and it well there is no comparison to putting $1 under your bed

You have to include the alpha and beta of your investment, it probably is higher than gold, though nowhere near the difference this guy has portrayed by a long shot. You also risk owning an AOL, Worldcom, AIG or Enron or one of the financials that went belly up in 2008, which I'm sure is not priced in, they've likely done a simple index track which is not how people tend to invest.

How this guy got $3.21 is completely beyond me.
 
http://cointrackers.com/coins/13984/1802-draped-bust-dollar/

Type: Draped Bust Dollar
Year: 1802
Mint Mark: No mint mark
Face Value: 1.00 USD
Total Produced: 41,000
Silver Content: 90%
Silver Weight: 0.7735 oz.
Silver Melt: $11.21
Value: As a rough estimate of this coins value you can assume this coin in average condition will be valued at somewhere around $730, while one in certified mint state (MS+) condition could bring as much as $31,940 at auction.

I'll give you ten cents for it.
 
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