Bank of Montreal Report on Silver

[JulieW]

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&...ODU5NGRlMWE0MTI4&hl=en&authkey=CJ3d5boN&pli=1

BMO Research has reviewed a number of supply and demand scenarios for
silver through 2015E. The analysis suggests that the projected rise in mine
supply should largely be consumed by rising industrial demand through to
the end of 2012E.

The prospects of further quantitative easing combined with sovereign debt
concerns, competitive 'fiat' currency devaluation in western economies, and
the return of inflation could result in investment demand exceeding BMO
Research's projections and extending the supply deficit through 2014E.

This shift in the supply/demand dynamic lies in contrast to the broader
investment perception for silver, which is rooted in the 1990's when the
metal was in abundance, driven by the demise of the photographic industry
and Chinese selling.

The paradigm shift for silver suggests that the traditional benchmarks for
silver, such as the long-term historical ratio with gold, are no longer valid.
Accordingly, the markets are searching for a new set of criteria against
which to benchmark the price of silver, with a bias to the upside.

and

Near term, silver could encounter increasing volatility after doubling in price
since mid-Q3/10. However, the silver market supply/demand fundamentals
are not very price elastic and the market is relatively illiquid. As such,
unanticipated increases in industrial or investor demand can move the price
materially above its marginal cost, especially at a time when a physical
deficit is projected. BMO Research expects an 88Moz deficit in 2011.

Further upside for the price of silver is fuelled by the metals performance
relative to its January 1980 high of US$50.35/oz (gold to silver ratio of ~16
to 1), a year after the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market. In real
terms (2011 dollars), the silver peak was nearly US$141/oz in January
1980, which is roughly ~275% above the current price.

 

[BullionBull]

These paltry deficits are NOTHING compared to what is coming within a decade, with demand from the solar energy industry set to multiply many times over.

Buy and HOLD.

 

[bsides]

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&...ODU5NGRlMWE0MTI4&hl=en&authkey=CJ3d5boN&pli=1

Further upside for the price of silver is fuelled by the metals performance
relative to its January 1980 high of US$50.35/oz (gold to silver ratio of ~16
to 1), a year after the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market. In real
terms (2011 dollars), the silver peak was nearly US$141/oz in January
1980, which is roughly ~275% above the current price.

and this is using official govt CPI figures. using more accurate figures (ie: shadow stats), the high is ~$450/oz

 

[Nub Cannon]

This is very interesting indeed this is exactly how I feel about silver. I don't think the price can crash like it did in the 80's due to all the industrial demand. If silver went to $450 I think I would buy myself a McLaren MP4-12C

 

[grinners]

It baffles me that people still use a price high in 1980 brought on by 2 individuals attempting to corner the market to deduce silvers top and/or true value today... It might be higher, it might be lower, who knows, but one thing is for sure, the 1980 price is irrelevant beyond a weak psychological barrier.

 

[bsides]

It baffles me that people still use a price high in 1980 brought on by 2 individuals attempting to corner the market to deduce silvers top and/or true value today... It might be higher, it might be lower, who knows, but one thing is for sure, the 1980 price is irrelevant beyond a weak psychological barrier.

2 individuals is a myth/red herring. what was gold doing at that time??? $850 anyone??

 

[Recent]

It baffles me that people still use a price high in 1980 brought on by 2 individuals attempting to corner the market to deduce silvers top and/or true value today... It might be higher, it might be lower, who knows, but one thing is for sure, the 1980 price is irrelevant beyond a weak psychological barrier.

2 individuals is a myth/red herring. what was gold doing at that time??? $850 anyone??

Gold followed silver up and it looks like it will be the same again.

For whatever reason silver went up in the past it still went up and hit those highs.

 

[smokey]

now I am getting my Canadian news from down under
thanks

 

[XCskater]

These paltry deficits are NOTHING compared to what is coming within a decade, with demand from the solar energy industry set to multiply many times over.

Buy and HOLD.

Yes and No.
The only thing more suppressed than the price of silver, is green technology. It's many decades overdue, all of it. We are comforted with the promise that oil is running out, while indications are that oil is being produced by the earth itself, not just millions of years of dinosaur decay. Tectonic lubrication. Yes, we need that, to stay down there.

 

[hiho]

Tectonic lubrication. Yes, we need that, to stay down there.

 

[PerthStack]

These paltry deficits are NOTHING compared to what is coming within a decade, with demand from the solar energy industry set to multiply many times over.

Buy and HOLD.

Yes and No.
The only thing more suppressed than the price of silver, is green technology. It's many decades overdue, all of it. We are comforted with the promise that oil is running out, while indications are that oil is being produced by the earth itself, not just millions of years of dinosaur decay. Tectonic lubrication. Yes, we need that, to stay down there.

Where are these indications that the earth itself produces oil?

 

[Dwayne]

These paltry deficits are NOTHING compared to what is coming within a decade, with demand from the solar energy industry set to multiply many times over.

Buy and HOLD.

Yes and No.
The only thing more suppressed than the price of silver, is green technology. It's many decades overdue, all of it. We are comforted with the promise that oil is running out, while indications are that oil is being produced by the earth itself, not just millions of years of dinosaur decay. Tectonic lubrication. Yes, we need that, to stay down there.

Where are these indications that the earth itself produces oil?

Wishful thinking and a belief in conspiracy theories

 

[Ouch]

We are comforted with the promise that oil is running out, while indications are that oil is being produced by the earth itself, not just millions of years of dinosaur decay. Tectonic lubrication. Yes, we need that, to stay down there.

Where are these indications that the earth itself produces oil?

The earthly origins of oil are not disputed. Its only whether the process is biological or as some believe, a non-biological process (abiogenic petroleum theory). XCskater is alluding to the latter which is a fringe opinion nowadays.