Australian Dollars to US Dollars ~ Today Tonight

Came on the back of very poor Hong Kong Manufacturing PMI reading which is a reflection on China's manufacturing
 
Australian Dollar Declines as Retail Sales Data Fuel RBA Rate Cut Bets

The Australian Dollar fell more than 0.5 percent against its US counterpart after a disappointing set of data crossed the wires. The former country's July retail sales came in at -0.1 percent (MoM) versus 0.4 percent expected and 0.6 percent in June. In addition to being the lowest reading since May 2014, it was also the first contraction since then.


In its most recent statement on monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia mentioned that consumption growth has picked up since its recent trough in 2013. During its September interest rate decision, the central bank maintained language of a data-dependent policy outlook.


The first contraction of retail sales in 14 months probably caught the market off-guard. Looking at Australian front-end government bond yields (2-year), they fell more than 0.8 percent alongside the Aussie's decline. This suggests that the data likely fueled RBA rate cut expectations.
Click to expand...
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market...Retail-Sales-Data-Fuel-RBA-Rate-Cut-Bets.html
 
Yeah that was yesterday's news.

This is todays

Annabel Fiddes, Economist at Markit:
"Hong Kong's private sector saw the quickest deterioration in overall operating conditions since the global financial crisis in August, driven in part by steep contractions in both output and new orders.
Another worrying development was the sharper rate of job cuts in August, with the latest fall in employment the fastest since April 2003.
The data continue to point to weaker demand conditions amid an uncertain global economic outlook, as fears continue to mount over China's growth prospects.
The latest set of PMI data signalled that new business from Mainland China placed at Hong Kong's private sector firms dropped at the sharpest rate since late-2008, and remains a key factor weighing on overall new work.
It seems unlikely that the performance of the sector will improve unless demand conditions pick up, as further cuts to output, staff numbers and purchasing activity suggest that the sector will remain in contractionary territory at least in the near-term."
Click to expand...

http://news.forexlive.com/!/hong-kong-august-pmi-444-to-its-lowest-since-april-2009-20150904
 
Another half cent move I missed.

That aside I think if anyone here was planning to exchange cash for a holiday or try and get some sub $20aud silver then that moment has passed, in AUD terms it's all uphill from here. Hope you all got your moment at the buffet while it was on.
 
I don't share the same opinion. I think the AUD is easily going into the mid 60s over the medium term

Even if the Fed doesn't raise, yes the AUD will pop in the short-term, but until the Fed announces a 180 degree turn on its polices, the deteriorating global outlook and trade will weigh heavy on commodity currencies.
 
If you look at the one year chart, aussie to u.s. dollar is still in the downward trend. It has made a 'camel toe' pattern which seems to be reasonably common on the downward legs.
 
Aud/USD appears to be in a 4th wave correction (trending down)
Same with the Euro and GBP

I also think Gold is preparing for a fifth wave down (but who knows with Gold)

I bought USD in the 0.80s so ill add to the position soon probably as well as buy some GB pounds. Not buying gold yet

Betting against Australia has been a great return over the last year.
Stock market gains (when corrected for AUD loss) really means stocks haven't done as well as it seems
 
1 AUD = 0.723114 USD

I think silver Sanchez has the right idea. I'm thinking, based on resources prices, oil prices and the slowing economies of Asia, namely China, as well as the current U.S. monetary policy decisions will lead to a weakening Canadian as well as Australian dollar. While it's probably a little far fetched, I would not be entirely surprised at a sub 0.55 USD for each AUD by first quarter of 2017.

Buying USD now isn't a dumb idea IMHO.
 
Woah, I woke up and up she's gone again. And I was about to make a big transfer to USD too, nice :)
 
Jim Rogers is saying buy USD

Edit to add: if the AUD is going to track gold like it used to, I know what I'd much rather have.
 
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