Australia going down in 2015 - Locantro

finicky

finicky

Well-Known Member
Silver Stacker
Haha, Tony says he now knows what it feels like to be the fruit platter at a kids party

His tip sheet is all resource spec stocks - they're all reject disasters price-wise

Reckons Aussies can't handle a normal correction in real estate or financial stocks. Too leveraged, incomes aren't keeping up. They won't absorb it, they'll react then panic selling will set in. At least I think that's what he said ....

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7KT952AmnI[/youtube]
 
"The gold price has gone sideways like a ballerina" LOL

Seriously though....

What's the bet that when the SHTF, all we'll hear from politicians, speculators, home buyers and financial analysts is "no one could have predicted this!" Then calls for a levy to bail out underwater, over leveraged home owners.

We're fucked.


<---- SIDEWAYS LIKE A BALLERINA ---->
 
but do you think ? because we are already in the hole with massive unpayable government debt. If the banks nose dive, will the use the Cypress rule of thumb and use the media the spin a story that it's only fair that the share holders being the depositors or trusty savers should burden the pain.

Hence is it wise to be in a too much case position? and if this scenario actually rings true? where to you think Hockeys cut off will be to penalize those savers $100K+ or +$80K+ $50K+
 
hihosilver said:
but do you think ? because we are already in the hole with massive unpayable government debt. If the banks nose dive, will the use the Cypress rule of thumb and use the media the spin a story that it's only fair that the share holders being the depositors or trusty savers should burden the pain.

Hence is it wise to be in a too much case position? and if this scenario actually rings true? where to you think Hockeys cut off will be to penalize those savers $100K+ or +$80K+ $50K+
Click to expand...

Bank bail-in has been discussed for some time now. I'm guessing ALL depositors will get a haircut. Probably a percentage based haircut for depositors under 100K.
 
The thing that worries me about Australian urbanites is that in cities like Sydney most people seem to be so leveraged with mortgage and car and cards that both partners have to work constantly to service the loans. If one or both partners get sick or lose their jobs many such households may realistically be 8 paychecks away from losing it all.
 
I have a family member who has to sell a house for another elderly family member. Maybe we need to speed things up. I wonder what the best bargains will be if you have a little money to invest...I suppose in market wide downturns you can always pick up a bargain in the basic stuff like Woolworths or medibank.
 
phrenzy said:
I suppose in market wide downturns you can always pick up a bargain in the basic stuff like Woolworths or medibank.
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Buying into a market with lots of downward momentum can be quite dangerous.
 
If the going down scenario comes true, maybe we can invest in the two industries that done well in the great depression...Gambling and beer.

Regards Errol 43
 
Hes a fund manager :rolleyes: Holding a hose on a mine site is probably 10 times more productive then this dead shit will ever ammount to
 
aleks said:
Holding a hose on a mine site is probably 10 times more productive then this dead shit will ever ammount
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He wasn't implying the hose holder was unproductive. Rather he was stating 110K annual salary for low skilled mine jobs is unsustainable. Especially since iron ore and coal prices have dropped.

I think he makes a fair point.
 
willrocks said:
aleks said:
Holding a hose on a mine site is probably 10 times more productive then this dead shit will ever ammount
Click to expand...

He wasn't implying the hose holder was unproductive. Rather he was stating 110K annual salary for low skilled mine jobs is unsustainable. Especially since iron ore and coal prices have dropped.

I think he makes a fair point.
Click to expand...
I understood quite well what he said...
 
aleks said:
Hes a fund manager :rolleyes: Holding a hose on a mine site is probably 10 times more productive then this dead shit will ever ammount to
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he seems to have struck a personal note with you. Do you hold a hose for a mining company? If so can you hook me up with a job, i could sure use that kind of money.
 
leo25 said:
aleks said:
Hes a fund manager :rolleyes: Holding a hose on a mine site is probably 10 times more productive then this dead shit will ever ammount to
Click to expand...

he seems to have struck a personal note with you. Do you hold a hose for a mining company? If so can you hook me up with a job, i could sure use that kind of money.
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:lol: I've been sprung

Unfortunately not, but he did hit a nerve and I'll put it to you this way, Its about time we stop paying these scum money managers millions of dollars. Working 10 to 12 hour days, upto 13 days a fortnight away from family for upto four weeks at time can't be good for ones mental health.


All the proletariat have to lose is their chains, WORKERS OF THE WORLD UNITE :cool:
 
Working 10 to 12 hour days, up to 13 days a fortnight away from family for up to four weeks at time can't be good for ones mental health.
All the proletariat have to lose is their chains, WORKERS OF THE WORLD UNITE
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Sorry, but if they're fit, and below 40 years old say, they're probably having a ball, whatever their self serving union reps and psychologists say.

Around 13 years ago I was still chasing itinerant seasonal fruit picking/thinning/pruning work 12 months a year and managing to draw about 8 months work p.a from that. No accommodation provided usually, let alone canteen or any other nicety. If it rained, or they were spraying, or the variety of fruit coming on was not quite ripe - no work, no pay. Heaps of things like frost, disease, poor fruit size, old big trees, poorly pruned trees would drastically lower workers' income (piece rate system). No hols, sick, long service accrual or anything else. Result - best year around $30k before tax. Even then I enjoyed it on balance: new places, people, pissing on, motivated labour (i.e. piece rate not clock watching).

So I read a couple of years ago that highly paid Woodside Petroleum workers were on a union organized strike because their free motel quality single room dongas were proposed to be hired out or otherwise used while the workers were on hols. Nope the bros had a proprietorial attitude to their company provided accommodation and wanted their rooms (working capital) left idle and reserved for their exclusive personal use.

As Tony implies the wage costs are one of the major reasons that mines have become unprofitable and investors in miners and mine service companies are doing their dough. It is out of whack when wages and conditions cause a poor return on capital. Anyway one upshot is some of the dickheads who get totally unreasonable about their economic worth cause their own retrenchment.
 
Notice this guys language

'Kids holding a hose getting $120K' so that's all it takes to build and operate some of the biggest construction and mining operations in the southern hemisphere never mind the skilled trades/university educated/post grad men and women that constitutes the majority of the workforce as opposed to 'unskilled labour'
 
finicky said:
As Tony implies the wage costs are one of the major reasons that mines have become unprofitable and investors in miners and mine service companies are doing their dough. It is out of whack when wages and conditions cause a poor return on capital.
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Oh you mean mining companies making poor investment decisions blind sighted by all time high commodity prices, essentially 'buying the top' and now whinging that commodity prices are down
 
Locantro talks to entertain while making his points. It's colour imagery - he's not an academic.
Started to google an example and very first thing that comes up, why look further ...

Oil rig workers on '$2000 a day' as mining execs warn of high wages

"I make no apology," AWU national secretary Paul 'Piggy' Howes said yesterday. "We are a union, and our job is to secure good wages and conditions for our members. If we know we can get it, we will get it."

"The cost of the oil and gas project, a joint venture between ExxonMobil and BHP Billiton, is understood to have blown out by $160 million because of the deal.
The deal is understood to have included a $90-a-day allowance because workers, who sleep in derrick barges, have to share toilet and bathroom facilities. Sources said the agreement, yet to be made public, included generous allowances but unions did not offer any productivity gains in return.
ExxonMobil refused to confirm details of the agreement. But last month, similar agreements were reached for the demolition of the West Atlas PTTEP Australasia rig, which caught fire off Western Australia last November.
Contractors running the demolition have to pay workers $60 a day because they do not have personal cabins on their accommodation barges, plus an extra $30 a day "where an employee is required to share an en-suite cabin ablution facilities" with other personnel."

This was ludicrous. How responsible was it towards making the industry profitable, worthy of investment and creative of sustainable jobs? That's what I mean by 'self serving' union reps, they've completely corrupted an otherwise noble movement.
 
Those bastards, you are right. I mean because it's not like mining companies are at the top of the list OF THE HIGHEST PAID EXECUTIVES IN AUSTRALIA :rolleyes: It's not like the executives and management get paid travel allowances for hotels and meals, or allowances if they visit a site right? :rolleyes:

You do realise that those $2k a day workers represent two fiths of fuck all compared to numbers of workers in the mining sector/oil and gas as a whole. Just how many people do you think can fit on an offshore platform
 
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