Aussie dollar to drop below 66c - "benign" collapse ahead

[SovereignBuyerMelbourne]

Wish I'd brought some gold last week when it was briefly 1150 USD, under $2200 for a 50g gold bar seems like a bargin now that the price for that same bar is 2390.

Especially now that the AUD being too high rhetoric is increasing.

http://www.afr.com/p/national/hockey_talks_down_dollar_warns_on_Pe4ulzFh8rIjVDIXJ4HiQJ

Six months ago it was a comfortable 0.94 and reached 0.95 a drop of ten cents is pretty huge.

 

[SovereignBuyerMelbourne]

It's at least heading to 80 cents

Question is, how fast and will it taper off or accelerate?

3 month chart:

http://i.imgur.com/zrffwvt.jpg

The US jobs numbers for November will be released tomorrow US time, based on how impressive/unimpressive the figures are the AUD could shoot down or up briefly.

 

[boston]

I think the FTA with China will help regional Victoria especially the dairy farmers. The state produces 65% of Australia's milk and 80% of Australia's dairy exports.

The real question is, how many of Victoria's dairy farms are actually owned by Australians vs China? My understanding is that China owns quite a few.

Perhaps Iceblue can chime in on this one.

 

[Caput Lupinum]

I don't put timeframes on things but 80 cents has been a long term target for a while. 80 cents has also previously been a point where there's been breakouts in the past. At 80 cents this would put the USD index at roughly the 90 level which is also a major target. All you can do then is head to the sidelines and wait to see which direction to looks likely to head in. My gut says lower just based on the overall health of the global economy but I'll need confirmation before deciding what I'll do.

 

[Eureka Moments]

I think the FTA with China will help regional Victoria especially the dairy farmers. The state produces 65% of Australia's milk and 80% of Australia's dairy exports.

The real question is, how many of Victoria's dairy farms are actually owned by Australians vs China? My understanding is that China owns quite a few.

Perhaps Iceblue can chime in on this one.

China owns 2 and Canada owns the other one.

 

[SovereignBuyerMelbourne]

I think the FTA with China will help regional Victoria especially the dairy farmers. The state produces 65% of Australia's milk and 80% of Australia's dairy exports.

The real question is, how many of Victoria's dairy farms are actually owned by Australians vs China? My understanding is that China owns quite a few.

Perhaps Iceblue can chime in on this one.

I don't know, I do know however that Chinese Investment in Australia accounts for 3.3% of total foreign investment.

Of that 3% mining accounts for 73%, oil and gas 18%, renewable energy is 4% whilst agriculture and Real estate is 5%

Australia's biggest investors are America followed by Britain.

 

[Peter]

If other currencies are falling against the US dollar also, then this is of less importance.
And I think they are.
Means that the US dollars is rising against other curriencies.?

 

[Revils]

I follow the EUR/AUD very closely, and while recently the AUD has fallen against the Euro there hasn't been any significant drop like with the USD. (-2.82% compared with -4.17%)

I'm saving for a large purchase in Euros - watching the exchange rates is worse than watching the silver spot price.

 

[Peter]

Average weekly BID rates @ +/- 0%

USD / EUR

USD / AUD

USD / CAD

USD / GBP
Period Average 0.7469 1.1009 1.0972 0.6046
Period High 0.8034 1.1664 1.135

Over last year shows these magor currencies are falling against USD
I.e.
US is rising.

 

[Holdfast]

The Australian Dollar Has Tracked The Iron-Ore Price Lower.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/m...s-to-fresh-4-189year-low-20141205-120nam.html

 

[bordsilver]

^ Well, eventually it has :/

 

[SovereignBuyerMelbourne]

The Australian Dollar Has Tracked The Iron-Ore Price Lower.

http://images.theage.com.au/2014/12...9x410.120nam.png1417729461418.png-620x349.png
http://www.theage.com.au/business/m...s-to-fresh-4-189year-low-20141205-120nam.html

Wow not seen this before, its amazing how they closely shadow one another.

 

[dollars]

" With regard to other major currencies, their central bankers have all tried very hard to talk them down. In Australia, barely a day appears to go by without some official saying the Aussie is overvalued. How much jawboning can the markets take? The Aussie's fate will ultimately depend on how China is doing, not words of policy makers. "

rest of article @ http://www.merkinvestments.com/insights/2014/2014-12-04.php

 

[SpacePete]

The AUD is going down faster than a....?

 

[whinfell]

On a positive note, it's not dropping as fast as the rouble! :lol:

 

[thatguy]

Isn't it a race to the bottom... Russia's winning thier economy should be booming :|

 

[Silver91]

so being completely new to this, where would one be able to purchase USD..the local changer will have too big margins i think..any other ways? either physical or online..

 

[billybob888]

politician/media are so full of it.

On the one hand they say weaker currency will boost the economy by making the exports cheaper and on the other hand they say Russia is hurting from weaker Ruble.

They cant even be consistent with their lies, but unfortunately their lack of logic/ intelligence/ honesty is enough to fool vast majority of people

 

[JulieW]

Today I watched television for the first time in many months. It seems to me that the drivel transmitted is suited to the equivalent of 10 year olds. This is the electorate. I'm not surprised at the fairy tales that are told.

 

[SilverDJ]

The Australian Dollar Has Tracked The Iron-Ore Price Lower.

Source: http://www.tylervigen.com/