Aussie dollar to drop below 66c - "benign" collapse ahead

The ZH article was basically saying Australia was heading towards Greece's fate Don't believe it but an interesting read, especially the comments section. ZH doesn't usually cover Oz much so worth a look.

Aussie Dollar Tests Long-Term Trendline As China Contagion Spreads

Last week, we asked "Is Australia the next Greece?" It appears, judging bu the collapse in the Aussie Dollar, that some - if not all - are starting to believe it's possible after last night's 15-month low in China Manufacturing PMI. As UBS previously noted, China's real GDP growth cycles have become an increasingly important driver of Australia's nominal GDP growth this last decade. With iron ore and coal prices plumbing new record lows, a Chinese (real) economy firing on perhaps 1 cyclinder, and equity investors reeling from China's collapse; perhaps the situation facing Australia is more like Greece than many want to admit.

Australian consumers are more worried about the medium term outlook than at the peak of the financial crisis, and rightfully so...

As China plumbs new depths in manufacturing, just piling on Aussie's woes...

The Dollar is rising this morning but all eyes are on AUD as it tests a very long-term trendline...

As The Telegraph previously concluded, rather ominously,
The problem is that Australia, after decades of effort to diversify, is looking ever more like a petrodollar economy of the Middle East, but without the vast horde of foreign currency reserves to fall back on when commodity prices fall.


Instead, Australians must borrow to maintain the standards of living that the country has become accustomed to, which even some Greeks will admit is unsustainable.

Charts: Bloomberg

Other comment of note:

Australia, since Robert Menzies, has been poorly managed. Back in the '60s Australia used to have very strong manufacturing sector, with companies like AWA, they used to manufaturer TVs, radios and a plethora of electronic goods. White goods used to be manufactured, and their was even an airplane manufacturing sector. Today, manufacturing is being massacred by the lazy policies of easy money by supporting the mining sector and the illusionary support of things tourism. Furthermore, Australia has gone to a service, or tertiary industry focus. Basically they believe by giving services to each other like, banking for healthcare, that the economy is able to advance. And that is the problem. There is no added value industry. Added value in Australia means, importing products from China and adding a ridiculously higher price to the good. It is a fair comment to say that Australia is the Greece of Asia, for it is.

What does it say of a country, like Australia, where you can buy citizenship. Yes for $5,000,000 Australian dollars (thats, only $US 3,500,000, and dropping fast), anybody with that kind of money can buy Australian citizenship, of course, all the most unscrupolous people from China, and every other dubious economic crook in the world are doing just that. Along with this insanity, Australia's blind eye to foreigners buying up property, especially by the Chinese, is so prevalent that now the median price for a Sydney home is $1,000,000 AUS. Eventhough the Australian Government has brought in tough new requirements on foreign ownership, nothing, as always will be done. Australia has painted itself into a very dark corner, if there is a housing correction, the entire economy will collapse, they WILL NOT do anything to jeopardize the property market, like raising interest rates, or going after foreign home buyers.

The underlying problem in Australia is that it has been incompetently managed. It matters not, Liberal or Labour Parties are in power, for they are both incompetent. And now that the mining boom is over, Australia is heading for the economic backwaters of the South Pacific. The AUS/US will head down 50 cents, and you will hear, as always, the economic nincompoops say that this is good for trade. If you look at a chart of the AUS/US dollar over the past 40 odd years (since it has been floated), you will see when ever the AUS dollar weakened, the Australian debt skyrocketed, as it is now. So how can a weak dollar help? It can't, it never does. What you really want is a strengthening dollar and people buying your goods, like it was for Germany and the Deutsche Mark.

Don't be fooled by the rosey picture Australians paint. Yes they have $60,000 AUS average salary, but that is only $40,000 US and the cost of living is one of the worst in the world, add house prices and rent, and that $60,000AUS wage barely will not cover your expenses. When a 2 bedroom unit, that is really a pig-sty, can cost you $2,500 a month, you are looking at 50% of your wage just to live like a rat (Sydney prices!).

The fundamental problem with Australia, is the same one with Greece, arrogance, incompetence, and incredible high opinion of themselves and absolutely no common sense or realistic undestanding of their low place in the world. And the last thing, and most important thing...they are incredibly rascist, that is the white anglo Australians. I hope as the immigrant population grows that eventually more of them will get into the Australian parliament, which right now is heavily biased to the anglo whites (alla South Africa in the bad ol' days).

Australia was once a lucky country, today its living on borrowed time. Like Greece, Australia is going to pay a huge price for its backward and foolish ways. Thanks to a long line of corrupt and incompetent Prime Ministers starting with Whitlam, Australia is now on a Greek trajectory. When you have a political class of the likes of Bronwyn Bishop, that treats the taxpayer as Emelda Marcos or Marie Antoinette did, you can only have one eventual outcome.

Like the US, Australia has a poor quality and corrupt political class. It matters not, Democrat or Republican in the US, Labour or Liberal Party in Australia, the outcomes are always the same, bad corrupt and incompetent government. I don't know what is worse, to have such people in government destroying countries, or that there are so many people in the electorate that keep voting for these thieves and morons, what does that say about the people who vote for this kind of government? Yes, you get the government you choose, but does everybody deserve them, especially those who want neither of these criminals? That's why people should be always allowed to leave and freely go to some other country, it puts pressure on the home country to get its act right, otherwise the good hard working people will be abused. Problem is, when nearly every single country in the world is run badly, and that there is a potential of 7,000,000 people to move around, this free movement of people can be very unbalancing.

So I ask all who have read this comment, what is wrong with democracy when we still get such bad governments? How can we fix democracy? Because, I for myself, am tired of these thieves and idiots. Something has to change.
 
+1 HSBC
I have established USD account when AUD was 0.82 ...
You can instantly exchange AUD to USD at live rate with only about 1 cent being taken of the buy/sell.
In terms of assets HSBC Holdings comes at 3rd position in the World makes me trust them more than any other Australian banks.
Commonwealth is just passing on all the fees associated with their extensive branch numbers to its customers.
Not long ago many investors had suffered financial loss due to financial planners at CBA...

HSBC worked for me well but everyone is free to trust and take their business to any bank they think serves them best.

Knowing that all wars are bankers wars one isnt much better than the other
 
silverbait said:
+1 HSBC
I have established USD account when AUD was 0.82 ...
You can instantly exchange AUD to USD at live rate with only about 1 cent being taken of the buy/sell.
In terms of assets HSBC Holdings comes at 3rd position in the World makes me trust them more than any other Australian banks.
Commonwealth is just passing on all the fees associated with their extensive branch numbers to its customers.
Not long ago many investors had suffered financial loss due to financial planners at CBA...

HSBC worked for me well but everyone is free to trust and take their business to any bank they think serves them best.

Knowing that all wars are bankers wars one isnt much better than the other

So what is the difference/advantages/disadvantages between using a bank account with HSBC or whatever to buy and sell USD compared to an ETF on the ASX such as Betashares?
 
mmm....shiney! said:
So what is the difference/advantages/disadvantages between using a bank account with HSBC or whatever to buy and sell USD compared to an ETF on the ASX such as Betashares?

The ETF is cheaper, however has the following risks.
With HSBC you are able to move your money and covert at any time, unlike the ETF which will only allow you to cash out during ASX market hours.
Also with the ETF you must be careful of liquidity. In case of a market crash you may be hoping for the USD ETF to boom and then sell out, however with a spooked market you may find there are not enough buyers or nobody will buy your ETFs because the price has gone too high.

I think other low cost ETFs are very good but only for long term compound investing, not when markets are crashing. You won't find buyers in these markets, the volumes are too low.
 
I'm using CurrencyFair
http://www.curencyfair.com/
The rates are pretty darn good, and bank transfer to/from takes a day or two. Not instant, but that doesn't bother me. You can use any Bank USD account to store it, and avoid paying the horrible bank rates.
So I go Bank AUD account --> CurencyFair temp holding account --> Bank USD account. And vice-versa.
 
SilverDJ said:
I'm using CurrencyFair
http://www.curencyfair.com/
The rates are pretty darn good, and bank transfer to/from takes a day or two. Not instant, but that doesn't bother me. You can use any Bank USD account to store it, and avoid paying the horrible bank rates.
So I go Bank AUD account --> CurencyFair temp holding account --> Bank USD account. And vice-versa.

I get a blank screen.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
SilverDJ said:
I'm using CurrencyFair
http://www.curencyfair.com/
The rates are pretty darn good, and bank transfer to/from takes a day or two. Not instant, but that doesn't bother me. You can use any Bank USD account to store it, and avoid paying the horrible bank rates.
So I go Bank AUD account --> CurencyFair temp holding account --> Bank USD account. And vice-versa.

I get a blank screen.

Oops, try:
https://www.currencyfair.com/
 
That's an interesting point made about the fact that even though the average wage is $65k it's only US $45k since our dollar has crashed. Considering American homes are 1/3 if the price of ours it doesn't look so great anymore.
 
The fall continues. I expect more negative business and economic news in coming weeks and months matched by increasingly desperate government spin. There's nowhere to go but down.

igTVN68.jpg
 
Australian dollar tipped to fall below 60 cents

Deutsche Bank's Australian chief economist says the Aussie dollar could sink below 60 US cents to its lowest level since at least early 2003.

Deutsche Bank's Australian chief economist Adam Boyton says continued soft demand for resources and slower growth in China are among the factors that could force the Australian dollar below 60 US cents to its lowest value against the greenback since at least early 2003.

The Aussie dollar has already tumbled about 20 per cent in the past year and is now hovering just above 70 US cents.

Mr Boyton said Deutsche predicted 18 months ago that the dollar would hit about 65 US cents by the middle of 2016, a statement he said is "looking less stupid by the day".

"I wouldn't discount the currency moving into the 50s," Deutsche Bank's Australian chief economist Adam Boyton said.

"I'm not saying in the next 24 hours or anything like that but, as a big picture adjustment, that wouldn't seem unreasonable to me.

"Particularly if you think you're looking at a structural slowing in China, the commodity structure will remain under pressure for some time."

The low exchange rate can help boost exports by making them cheaper, increase tourism from overseas and have a positive effect on retail numbers by pricing some Australians out of foreign holidays.

But the effect isn't entirely positive.

"This fall in the currency is having an enormous effect on the competitiveness of the economy," Mr Boyton said.

"Unfortunately, it makes us more competitive by making us poorer, as opposed to productivity, which makes us competitive without making us poorer at the same time."

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2015/09/01/aussie-tipped-dip-below-60-us-cents
 
Thursday 11 December 2014

HSBC currency chief out after forex rigging scandal

"Forex fixing was the latest in a long line of scandals to embarrass a tainted industry since the financial crisis including the manipulation of interbank lending rates and gold prices as well as mis-selling of payment protection insurance."

"The regulators published lurid details ..... as they worked together to rig the values of major currency rates in order to boost their profits."

read more at http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...-out-after-forex-rigging-scandal-9916944.html


my emphasis in bold
 
I still think we could see the AUD fall below 70c, especially after seeing the government in total denial with yesterday's MYEFO and its failure to admit that token expenditure reductions wont address (or even meaningfully offset) the underlying problem of a decline in GDP growth and falling revenue which are leading to forcasts of a growing defecit.
 
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