AUD V EUR, any view on future relationship chart, fundamental.

W

Willow

New Member
Ladies and gents,

I am currently considering the AUd/EUR and the future comparative value of them. In particular if a large yacht purchase with AUD is better now or wait for approx 18 months and possibly pick it up (southern Europe) with a better terms of trade, or maybe worse. Obviously there are other items to consider in the background but they are not the focus of this suggested discussion.

I am seeking some considered thoughts on possibilities and probability of whether the AUD will be stronger against the EUR approx 18 months from now.

I have been considering the Chart and note what is possibly shaping up as a head and shoulder pattern, particularly if the price drops sub 0.77.
I am also considering that like the USA the eurozone are intent on devaluing their currency. I am also considering that at some point the Aussie Government may try to devalue as well.

If you have some points to consider or some technical chart points to look at i would like some other view points i may not have thought of.





Edit: cant even spell yacht!!
 
I read somewhere that someone considered either the USD/EUR to be the trade of the century, or the AUD/EUR. Can't remember which or why. Basically, they thought the Euro would appreciate. True. Not very helpful I know, but I was sick of posting in the Silver Bear's thread.

I have thought of importing a boat (Grady White) from the US in the last 6 months, but I decided to spend it on PMs and holidays instead. :/
 
mmm....shiney! said:
I read somewhere that someone considered either the USD/EUR to be the trade of the century, or the AUD/EUR. Can't remember which or why. Basically, they thought the Euro would appreciate. True. Not very helpful I know, but I was sick of posting in the Silver Bear's thread.

I have thought of importing a boat (Grady White) from the US in the last 6 months, but I decided to spend it on PMs and holidays instead. :/
Click to expand...
I might know someone who has a couple of vintage chris-craft boats for sale at the right price
 
In the eyes of the global central planning, the euro sits now in the center of the configured tunnel (so the dollar as the other heavyweight in the formula too).
They already took measures against BP, Yen and CHF.
So far they allowed AUD, NZD and CAD (in that order).
If they notice that speculators seem to continue to flock to those, they will hammer them down.
Above suggests that it's now a better time to buy the yacht in AUD.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6A&p=w1
Buy when your currencies relative to other currencies' value sits high on the multiyears chart.
However, above is just one element.
In a crisis, the luxe stuff is the first to drop in price. For ex if another crisis on the Euro side pops up, people there may sell off yachts because they need the money. This can easily outweigh the currencies difference. So, you have to also take into account Australias current yacht 'market' and EU's eventual futures yacht 'market'.
 
AUD/Euro chart:

AUDEUR_scottreeve.com_29.03.2013.png
 
Yes thanks that chart kind of shows a long term head and shoulders too, to me. Do you have any thoughts to go with it that you would like to share scott?
 
Interesting time to review this thread. The AUD/EUR is about the .70 mark. may well continue down from here I would suspect.
 
I'm in the opposite camp, expect the sale of some land in Cyprus - the lower the Euro against the Aussie, the more I get.
 
Nice, does that mean you think it will happen and that will be good for your sale? or is it that you hope that will happen as it will be good for your sale proceeds?
I suspect it may bounce from here soon, but longer term I don't have a clue. It may be the perfect timing for your sale Sammy?
 
Get the money and buy silver. That's what a Stacker does. Buy the dip and trust it is the right decision.
 
Yep , good call I like it, and buying silver now when so many are negative... even my stock tippers, who love the metal, just sold a big silver position..
Not a bad contrarian move if you have the stones for it.
 
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