$AU vs $US

C

crojo

Member
Silver Stacker
What do people think will happen over the next month $au to surpass the $us again or do you think it wil float between 90c-98c for the foreseeable short term future?

I get paid in $us so personally I hope it falls further but think it will float for a while
 
Here's some monthly statistics so you can decide...there's also detailed day to day figures in this link.
http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/hist-exchange-rates/2010-2013.xls?accessed=2013-07-26-08-36-54


Jul-2010 0.8986
Aug-2010 0.8918
Sep-2010 0.9667
Oct-2010 0.9761
Nov-2010 0.9618
Dec-2010 1.0163
Jan-2011 0.9924
Feb-2011 1.0163
Mar-2011 1.0334
Apr-2011 1.0900
May-2011 1.0709
Jun-2011 1.0739
Jul-2011 1.0954
Aug-2011 1.0691
Sep-2011 0.9781
Oct-2011 1.0509
Nov-2011 1.0021
Dec-2011 1.0156
Jan-2012 1.0637
Feb-2012 1.0816
Mar-2012 1.0402
Apr-2012 1.0453
May-2012 0.9727
Jun-2012 1.0191
Jul-2012 1.0526
Aug-2012 1.0301
Sep-2012 1.0464
Oct-2012 1.0378
Nov-2012 1.0431
Dec-2012 1.0384
Jan-2013 1.0394
Feb-2013 1.0275
Mar-2013 1.0426
Apr-2013 1.0368
May-2013 0.9649
Jun-2013 0.9275

More info:
http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/xls/f11hist.xls?accessed=2013-07-26-08-36-54
 
Crojo, there is a vast amount of confusion and uncertainty, as bordsilver put it a couple of months ago, his opinion about the future of the AUD changes from one month to the next. There are a number of threads that give member's opinions and the reasons for them - if you had time it would be worthwhile going them as it would take me far to long to summarise them here. Bordsilver, mmm....shiney!, willrocks and tolly_67 have all posted their opinions and reasons, there are others too but they've been a bit quiet lately eg lovey88

There are many posts as well that just give opinions with no substance - I wouldn't bother with them :lol:
 
It appears to me that QE is working. Investment is up in the US. PM pricing is stable, the USD is up, the AUD is down. As such I think the AUD will keep slipping until we hit that point of 1. critical mass, 2. diminishing returns, 3. or in Stacker parlance - SHTF.

Now some newsletters are stating within 90 days, others 2 years. For what it's worth, I think it will be linked to a Syrian and/or Iranian US war that will tip the balance; maybe 6 to 12 months.
 
Anything could happen, even in a satiable market war could break out any time soon take the twin towers or even North Korea for example or the current wars been waged.
 
'They' wont let 'the end' come for a long, long time.
'Best guess' is still the formula for us peasants to use.

(guess since everything is rigged).

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lin-a2lTelg[/youtube]
 
Currently AUD1.00 = USD0.8980, that's the lowest since Aug 210 according to holdfast's stats.
 
I am hoping it has a bit to go down still!

Every little bit helps when sending baht and USD back to my Aus bank account.
 
SilverSanchez said:
breaking below 90 means the magnetic pull is going to be towards 80c US
Click to expand...

You think? This fall is not just AUD specific, it appears the USD doesn't smell like "Shite Tonite" so it's being lapped up. All majors are falling in comparison.

Why though? is the question.
 
Watching with interest given Clifford Bennetts prediction of being back above parity by years end.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
SilverSanchez said:
breaking below 90 means the magnetic pull is going to be towards 80c US
Click to expand...

You think? This fall is not just AUD specific, it appears the USD doesn't smell like "Shite Tonite" so it's being lapped up. All majors are falling in comparison.

Why though? is the question.
Click to expand...

With the price of oil rising and all oil purchases to be made in US $, then it means that the US is getting oil imports cheaper and other countries are paying more having to convert their currency into US$.

A great deal for the USA but not for Australia. :)

Is that the answer why?

Be interested in your thoughts on the matter?

Regards Errol 43
 
errol43 said:
With the price of oil rising and all oil purchases to be made in US $, then it means that the US is getting oil imports cheaper and other countries are paying more having to convert their currency into US$.

A great deal for the USA but not for Australia. :)
Click to expand...

How is that cheaper oil for the US? Oil is and was priced in USD. The price of oil is going up in USD QED The US pays more USD for each barrel of oil.

This is of course ignoring they just magic USD out of thin air so its anybodies guess what it really costs them but I won't go there.
 
i would expect the AUD to slip substantially after every RBA rate cut (one due next week). backed at a 90% chance of a cut, watch the AUD slide next week. I might break the 1 year drought and buy an ounce of gold this week.
 
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