Are people too focused on Pandas and Lunars here ?

Basically it's adding a different dimension to stacking - the base gold/silver purchase fits in with stacking, but there's the speculation on a numismatic premium return in future. Bit of a no-brainer really - the 1oz Mouse at the moment is the only non-performing Lunar 1oz silver coin, and it's day will come.

Just don't get caught up in the Dragon hype and overpay for the non-limited mintage sizes - i.e. the rest of them. Mind you the Tiger is barely out of mint 12 months and is already pulling good premiums - when's the last time you saw a 2oz Tiger for sale on here?
 
goldpelican said:
when's the last time you saw a 2oz Tiger for sale on here?
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No idea, but I need one to help complete my 1/2oz - 10oz Tiger collection :lol:

The way I see it, this is also an hobby, so if you're just buying straight bullion it's going to get boring quickly!
 
Austacker said:
So has everyone got blinkers on for Pandas and Lunars or have I got it wrong ? If you look at most posts for new stackers they are told keep away from Numismatics and stack, yet everyone else goes and buy Pandas and Lunars at double even triple silver value in the hope of profiting further down the track. Even though you will have a lot less metal. Will the numismatic value exceed the silver value you put on your stack ? If you look at history you would say Yes the numismatic value will increase further and I agree, however if Silver does go to da moon and hits $100, $250, $500 etc... will you then wish you had a lot more silver than numismatics ?
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Here's some personal insight from a Panda fan. (Not intended to be anti-ASEs or any other bullion)

I started with the usual stack of bars and bullion coins and they have done well... but if I could do it again, I would go full on Pandas.

The awful truth about stacking bullion bars and coins is that they generally don't appreciate in REAL VALUE.

Bullion bars and coins, generally only PRESERVE wealth. Eg. A 1966 round can still buy you lunch today.

Here is an example of what I mean when I say REAL VALUE:

E.g. A 2000 1oz American Silver Eagle, can generally only buy you ONE 2011 American Silver Eagle. (please understand, I'm not criticizing ASEs).
E.g. A 2000 1oz Panda, can generally buy/swap at least TEN 1oz 2011 Pandas.
E.g. A 2009 1oz Panda can buy/swap TWO 2011 1oz Pandas

But Panda coins generally grow in REAL VALUE.

SHTF SCENARIO:
If the SHTF, which it may, I want to have Panda coins since:
1. I live in Australia, which happens to be in the Asia Pacific region (for better and/or worse), and when the dust settles, I do believe that China will be the leading superpower (for better and/or worse).
2. If I need to run (like the Jews or Chinese of WWII), from my experience of selling/buying in Asia, demand for Pandas will outweigh demand for ASEs and other bullion products.
3. I believe that as demand for silver goes 'to da moon' so will silver and gold Pandas. Look at it from this angle, is current demand for Pandas growing or shrinking? Is it likely to keep growing during a silver/gold rush? I believe that the demand for silver will only increase the demand for Pandas. Similarly, if the RMB/yuan appreciates, so do the Pandas.

Pandas are usually only a 7% premium over American Silver Eagles when purchased wholesale at the time of release. That doesn't seem too much to pay for an investment coin that has historically performed well year after year after year.

NO SHTF SCENARIO:
If the stuff doesn't hit the fan:
1. If I had purchased ASE's/bullion coins, there is no loss. I've preserved my wealth - as evidenced by the last 10years.
2. If I had purchased Pandas, there is a fantastic gain. I've increased my wealth - as evidenced by the last 10years.

Peter Anthony writes "The numbers show that if you had bought a new 1-ounce silver Panda each year from 2000 through 2010, the cost would have been $334. At the end of may 2011, those coins would have been worth $1,418. Besides a tidy profit, this chart illustrates one other nice quality about these popular coins. Look at what happened to the price of silver in 2008: it declined. While the price of Pandas was affected by the economic events of the time, too, it recovered quickly enough that on a yearly chart there is actually a slight increase in value."

ArtLargImg22093.jpg

Source: http://www.numismaster.com/ta/numis/Article.jsp?ad=article&ArticleId=22093&et_mid=511838&rid=2216902

Hope this was of interest,
Yennus.
 
* For as long as SILVER is traded as PAPER on the COMEX , the spot will be low, and similarly for as long as people pay 100 % premium or 200 % premium on certain coins the price of 'generic' coins and bars will be low.

So in a way JPM subsidizes our SPOT and Pandas & Lunars subsidize our 'generic' coins.

If you are a buyer of cheap physical silver - you should be thankful to both groups.


Good luck to us all.
 
I made the decision when I started out to go with ASEs vs. rounds/bars. Short version of my decision was the tremendous liquidity of ASEs and I believed (and still do) that the premium would increase enough on the ASEs to offset the lower number of ounces I would start with. Bullion coins vs. rounds/bars is a choice of better/best vs. right/wrong. All who invest in silver will be happy and whichever type of silver ends up being the best will give the winners bragging rights. The losers will have to console themselves with preserving their wealth or becoming wealthier. Tough break!

As I became more aware of other coins, I made the decision to switch to the AU lunars and kooks and now the Canadian Wildlife coins. My reasoning is the same as others in that the ASEs will only experience a modest increase in premium compared to those other coins. I started buying Pandas, but quickly stopped because of the number of fraudulent Pandas that are showing up in America. I also made a foray into the Somalia elephant coins and love the 2011 design, but I don't know if the market is large enough to keep buying large amounts of them. After further evaluation, I was going to drop everything but the lunars and Canadian Wildlife coins. Lunars seemed like the best investment bang for your buck. Limited mintage, low initial premium, yearly design change, not being counterfeited and exotic (AU & Chinese).

So, I was all set to exchange two boxes of ASEs for dragons. However, several months ago, I foresaw an approaching dragon frenzy and my worst fears have been realized. No way am I swapping out ASEs and paying $40-60 premium to get some dragons. With the large initial premiums on dragons, they don't appeal to me. If I later decide to keep my 5 sets of S2 lunars going, I will pay up and buy the dragons. But right now, the 2014 horse are my next planned swap. The initial premiums on the 2013 lunar snakes will tell me whether the dragon frenzy is an anomaly or whether the new lunars will not meet my investment criteria. I suspect that the premiums will be back to normal next year. If so I will be sourcing future lunars from dealers who did not gouge on the dragons. That will be a very short list!

What to buy now? For me, probably not much. I have doubled my initial silver ounce goal earlier this year and I have been concentrating on gold. I may buy some San Francisco mint ASEs for the novelty and I may buy a Royal Silver membership to get cheaper Macaws. If I was still buying large amounts of silver, I would probably look at the S2 mice. Other than that, maybe the Southern Cross bars or any bar/round with a low premium and high liquidity. At some point, I believe the bars/rounds may surge past the lunars, etc. as the best investment. However, I don't expect that to happen until silver is well north of $100.
 
goldpelican said:
the 1oz Mouse at the moment is the only non-performing Lunar 1oz silver coin, and it's day will come.
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:lol:

Typical! Because that is the only Lunar coin I own at the moment! :P

TBH, I don't see what all the fuss is about. Sure, they are beautiful coins and they tend to go for a bit more than average but I am more concerned with quantity at the moment and I just don't have the excess cash to spend on one coin of highly inflated price and take the gamble that it will appreciate in value further still.

I also think I'm kind of influenced by nationality in that I tend to go for coins and rounds that have a UK origin.

Britannias tend to go for more than ASEs and Maples etc on eBay even though their purity is below .999 and they are very liquid.

And I know I keep banging on about the English Roses but I really think they are a lovely silver round and you just don't seem to see them for sale on Ebay, whether it be UK or other countries.

I'll be interested to see what I can get for one when I put it up for auction on here! :D

I've supplied a few folk on here with Roses but generally I've just done swaps weight for weight and I haven't made any money on them. I just like the thought of a few of them circulating down under. Oh yes, and I shall be putting in another order to the bullion supplier for more of them soon...if anyone didn't get first time around. :)

Baird and Co rounds are also a good buy, imho. On average I see Monarchs going for ~42 (~$64AUD) on UK ebay, which is non too shabby.
 
goldpelican said:
Basically it's adding a different dimension to stacking - the base gold/silver purchase fits in with stacking, but there's the speculation on a numismatic premium return in future. Bit of a no-brainer really - the 1oz Mouse at the moment is the only non-performing Lunar 1oz silver coin, and it's day will come.

Just don't get caught up in the Dragon hype and overpay for the non-limited mintage sizes - i.e. the rest of them. Mind you the Tiger is barely out of mint 12 months and is already pulling good premiums - when's the last time you saw a 2oz Tiger for sale on here?
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I also think the Lunar Mouse is under-valued at the moment and not because I happen to have 500 oz of them in stock.
Nine months ago, the Mouse had a much higher premium than either the Tiger, Ox and Rabbit. Then the Perth Mint screwed up the secondary market by going back and reminting thousands of Mice up to their 300,000 maximum limit.
Once this temporary glut is digested into the market place, I am sure prices will trend to the upside again.
I think by the end of this week, buyers would be pretty much limited to the 2012 Kook or Koala if they want to stack 1oz Australian bullion coins.
 
Yennus, what you say about the 1966 round is interesting. I was having a conversation a couple of days ago about the same thing. In 1966 I was earning $42 PW, so a roll of 50C coins was 1/4 of my weekly income. I heard an article on the news 3 days ago which stated the average aussie wage is $1080 PW. At $14 x 20 a roll of 1966 rounds is $280 roughly 1/4 of a weeks wage so all they have done is keep up with inflation.
 
Savige Silver said:
Yennus, what you say about the 1966 round is interesting. I was having a conversation a couple of days ago about the same thing. In 1966 I was earning $42 PW, so a roll of 50C coins was 1/4 of my weekly income. I heard an article on the news 3 days ago which stated the average aussie wage is $1080 PW. At $14 x 20 a roll of 1966 rounds is $280 roughly 1/4 of a weeks wage so all they have done is keep up with inflation.
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You must have been earning top wages then SS
My first job as a junior in a menswear store was $21.70 for a 5 1/2 day week.
50 cents an hour and it wasn't even silver. :rolleyes:
 
Savige Silver said:
Yennus, what you say about the 1966 round is interesting. I was having a conversation a couple of days ago about the same thing. In 1966 I was earning $42 PW, so a roll of 50C coins was 1/4 of my weekly income. I heard an article on the news 3 days ago which stated the average aussie wage is $1080 PW. At $14 x 20 a roll of 1966 rounds is $280 roughly 1/4 of a weeks wage so all they have done is keep up with inflation.
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Thanks Savige Silver. That's a really interesting first hand testimony. I really enjoy hearing about these experiences.

I kinda grade silver in the following categories:

Junk Bullion (I'm not using junk in a negative sense, merely as a descriptive connotation) - 1966 rounds, Pre-Decimals, Masterpieces in Silver*, $10 State Coins*, etc.
Standard Bullion - ASEs, Maples, Kooks, etc.
Premium Bullion - Pandas, Lunars, ATB, etc.

This is from personal experience (and probably does vary from person to person):
Junk Bullion often performs less than or equal to inflation - but still better than fiat. (E.g. I've often had to sell less than spot, but rarely above spot).
Standard Bullion often performs equal to inflation - much better than fiat. (E.g. I've never had to sell these for less than spot, but not much more than spot)
Premium Bullion often performs better than inflation - much better than fiat and other bullion (E.g. I've never had to sell these at spot, but always above spot)

Premium Bullion is often not very expensive (less than a 10% premium over Standard Bullion**), but performs massively better than Standard and Junk Bullion in both the short term (less than 2years), medium term (2-5years) and long term (more than 5years).

*I personally really like the Masterpieces in Silver and $10 State Coins, and think that these should be Premium Bullion, but alas, the current Australian market values them as Junk. The overseas Asian markets that I've been to unfortunately doesn't even recognize these as Junk. If you come to the next SydneyStackers Meet, you'll find a table full of MIS and $10 State Coins going at/near spot price :)

** Pandas and Lunars are often reasonably priced. But paying $90 for a first release dragon seems a bit rich... but who knows, perhaps demand for this particular coin will be strong, and will make $90 seem cheap in subsequent years (I doubt it, but nobody knows for sure)... if someone had told me that a $18-$19 2009 Panda would fetch $90-$100 in just 2years, I wouldn't have believed it, but it does.
 
I had a try at comparing the various types of silver available and although I missed a few out we managed to get a fairly good consensus of opinion.

http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-14024-in-the-category-1-ounce-silver-the-winner-is.html

The main area for comparrison was in the premiums over spot for each type.

Most people agreed that the Pandas and Lunars were towards the top of the list and the pre dec was at the bottom.

Personally I have a lot of pre dec but I was buying it back in the day for less than spot at around $14 an ounce. The same junk silver at $40 does not sound appealing even though it is still silver.

For some reason I feel cheated buying predec at spot at $40 when I know that it is highly likely that the seller bought it for half that, I don't begrudge them the profit, good on them for getting in early, but I know they can sell it for less than spot and both parties get a bargain.

I think that once people are comfortable with buying "Silver is Silver" they start to educate themselves and see that numismatics aren't a black art and it is an area where they can make small purchases without feeling that it is a total gamble.

The flashy rounds look to be harder to fake than the Indian Head generics so should be easier to sell once silver goes ballistic and the market is flooded with fakes. I saw some fake Pandas at the brisbane meet up and I would have happily added them to my stack and been none the wiser. I am still avoiding the Pandas.
 
A.E.L. At that time I was 20 yrs old and skinning 80 sheep a day, lot of work for a skinny kid. At the same time my father was earning $28 per week at the state electricity commision.
 
Savige Silver said:
A.E.L. At that time I was 20 yrs old and skinning 80 sheep a day, lot of work for a skinny kid. At the same time my father was earning $28 per week at the state electricity commision.
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Oh wow! Skinning or shearing?

Whereabouts in Australia?

Are you still involved in that industry?

I'm really keen to move into the wool industry, it's been depressed for so long, I think it could spring back to life within a couple of years. Especially if some of the necessary changes are made.
 
Pandas have opened a whole new avenue to my stacking strategy. I began by buying bulk. 15 and 1 kilo, 20 and 10 oz, some 1 oz bars with the intention of flipping for other interesting silver things. In addition I stacked tigers of different sizes and then ASE's, libertads, kooks etc (because they were easy to get, interesting and I thought cheap at the time...well they still are really). Only recently has Pandas surfaced thanks to Yennus, Peter and a very few other stackers who genuinely do know a lot about them.

I had a choice recently of buying a couple more kilos of 'bulk' silver or some Pandas which magically appeared on a thread not far from here. After some 15 seconds deliberation I swooshed on the pandas because a: if you don't move fast around here someone else will and b: it adds another dimension to my stacking which I interpret by saying "when silver gets to the 'right price' I cash in. At that time it will be interesting to see how my pandas have performed. My selling strategy for the pandas may be different from my selling strategy of my 'bulk' stack.

I guess that stackers buying up dragons now will have the same attitude. They are a little more exciting ........ :rolleyes: am I rambling here??

Anyhoo, in summary, I am still stacking bars (when I can) but I am also a little bit more excited about the prospects of the Pandas and intend to see more of them (when I can).


oops typo..edit button!
 
I agree with Yennus, with the exception of the premiums on pandas.

Current year premiums for the average Internet punter are more around the 25% mark ($40 spot and $50 buy).

However if/when I next go to China I know I will be bringing a roll or two home :)
 
Hi Anthony,

Yeah, Pandas are expensive compared to spot, but not expensive compared to other bullion.

If you're buying in small amounts, put a "WTB" (Want to Buy) thread in the Panda forum, I'm sure you can get some 2011 pandas at much less than a 25% premium.

But if you can afford wholesale (about 600 Pandas), or participate in a group buy, I'm sure you can get the 2011 pandas at only a 7% premium over ASEs.

E.g. A Sydney dealer's price today for Pandas: $49.93, ASEs: $46.68 - Only a 7% premium over ASEs.
 
yennus said:
Hi Anthony,

Yeah, Pandas are expensive compared to spot, but not expensive compared to other bullion.

If you're buying in small amounts, put a "WTB" (Want to Buy) thread in the Panda forum, I'm sure you can get some 2011 pandas at much less than a 25% premium.

But if you can afford wholesale (about 600 Pandas), or participate in a group buy, I'm sure you can get the 2011 pandas at only a 7% premium over ASEs.

E.g. A Sydney dealer's price today for Pandas: $49.93, ASEs: $46.68 - Only a 7% premium over ASEs.
Click to expand...

Ahh so premium over other coins, rather than premium over spot.

I see the light :)
 
So.. I'm running a little experiment on the public and trading forums at the moment. Some "unpopular" silver and gold going well under spot, and a discount on the trading floor for both. Interestingly, there have been no bites to this point...

I'm trying to determine if there has become more confidence in the premium value of a particular pieces, rather than in the metals themselves - or perhaps a greater amount of "fashion" in precious metals than generally acknowledged...
 
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