ARE OUR MINTS DEVALUING THEIR OWN PRODUCT ?

silversearcher

Active Member
Silver Stacker
In 1966 the year decimal coins and stamps were introduced. Australia Post had released about 7 sets of postage stamps. By the end of the late 70's the output of sets had doubled, this had included mini sheets and the introduction of the pre stamped envelopes. During the late 60's and early 70's many savvy stamp collectors bought stamps as hedge and a investment ( If collected in the correct manner - Corner strips, gutter strips etc ). By early to mid 80's Australia Post went berserk and over saturated the market with a endless supply of stamps, rendering the investor / collector value useless ( except for a few issues ). I rang my Mother this morning, and asked which year had Dad sold his magnificent Australian stamp collection ( both decimal and pre decimal ). He had sold the entire collection at the end of 1978 for a remarkable profit. I tell this story as to highlight a similar scenario going on with Australian issued bullion coins . There is no end to the amount of designs and sets issued these days, and particularly by the Perth Mint . There is virtually a new coin for every week, and for every occasion. Are our mints following the route of Australia Post ? Are they devaluing their own product by over supply ?


I'd like to hear a few thoughts on this topic....


As for me, my instinct is to do what my Father and Kenny taught me...


And that is to -


( adapted lyrics )


On a warm summer's eve
On a train bound for nowhere
I met up with a silver stacker
We were both too tired to sleep
So we took turns a-starin'
Out the window at the darkness
The boredom overtook us,
And he began to speak

He said, "Son, I've made a life
Out of collecting silver coins
Knowin' what coins to collect
By the limit of their mintage
So if you don't mind me sayin'
I can see you've bought a few milk spots
For a taste of your whiskey
I'll give you some advice"

So I handed him my bottle
And he drank down my last swallow
Then he bummed a cigarette
And asked me for a light
And the night got deathly quiet
And his face lost all expression
He said, "If you're gonna play the game, boy
You gotta learn to play it right

You've got to know when to stack 'em
Know when to ditch 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You can never rely on numi or semi numi profits
As the mints over saturate the market
You still have be time for ditching
And the time for you has begun....
 
I do find it interesting how they are able to manage such vast inventories.
SOOO many different products...
but I think the main reason for the increasing number of coins & designs is simply to bring higher premiums.

Mints don't want to sell anywhere near spot. It's too volatile.
Especially with today's prices. They are long PM's, and would much prefer their customers pay well over spot.
 
I agree but just by the flipper/collector sellers expected over inflated premium! Just take a look at PM Luna,s. I would think that in not too many years the collector/flipper high resale premium demanded now will significantly lower due to the flood of Lunas from every mint and their dog.

There are so many lunas minted there really isnt anything special about them other than collectors/flippers loading up on them in the hope of making even more but it will come to an end with those holding the most who paid the most loosing. PM should have stopped at a single first release but along with other mints they only really care about "their" sales profit and why shouldnt they? A collector coin release is not meant for individuals to load up on in tubes and tubes until "now" lol

Look how cheap you can pick up 90,s proof kooks compared to square cap and the small premium difference between square cap and re mint round caps!

Wedge tailed eagle! hard to buy 2014 coins at a reasonable premium if you missed out but now there is a 2015 and may be an every year release (still a first issue limited mint) but who really cares when each subsequent year is identical.

I am sure true numi collectors will trade as long as they are alive but the newer generations are interested in "new" not "old"

My money is on the Koala being the best PM bullion coin to collect but I am only interested in one of each and not re sale value.same as all my bullion coins :)
 
-j-p-shmorgan said:
I do find it interesting how they are able to manage such vast inventories.
SOOO many different products...
but I think the main reason for the increasing number of coins & designs is simply to bring higher premiums.

Mints don't want to sell anywhere near spot. It's too volatile.
Especially with today's prices. They are long PM's, and would much prefer their customers pay well over spot.

Mints are a bit more cleaver with premium than collectors when it comes to "flipper collectors" lol They will just keep loading them up with over priced coins as long as they keep buying them in tubes and tubes! lol
 
fishtaco said:
-j-p-shmorgan said:
I do find it interesting how they are able to manage such vast inventories.
SOOO many different products...
but I think the main reason for the increasing number of coins & designs is simply to bring higher premiums.

Mints don't want to sell anywhere near spot. It's too volatile.
Especially with today's prices. They are long PM's, and would much prefer their customers pay well over spot.

Mints are a bit more cleaver with premium than collectors when it comes to "flipper collectors" lol They will just keep loading them up with over pried coins as long as they keep buying them in tubes and tubes! lol

Less incentive for them to be competitive on low-premium silver with THAT kind of demand... :lol:
 
-j-p-shmorgan said:
fishtaco said:
-j-p-shmorgan said:
I do find it interesting how they are able to manage such vast inventories.
SOOO many different products...
but I think the main reason for the increasing number of coins & designs is simply to bring higher premiums.

Mints don't want to sell anywhere near spot. It's too volatile.
Especially with today's prices. They are long PM's, and would much prefer their customers pay well over spot.

Mints are a bit more cleaver with premium than collectors when it comes to "flipper collectors" lol They will just keep loading them up with over pried coins as long as they keep buying them in tubes and tubes! lol

Less incentive for them to be competitive on low-premium silver with THAT kind of demand... :lol:

Dead right! Thats why Perth Mint could get away with releasing such a shitty product as the funnel web spider, flippers bought them all up in tubes and tubes un seen expecting great profits,Perth Mint doesnt care they already sold most and made there bit out of the flippers :lol:
 
-j-p-shmorgan said:
I do find it interesting how they are able to manage such vast inventories.
SOOO many different products...
but I think the main reason for the increasing number of coins & designs is simply to bring higher premiums.

Mints don't want to sell anywhere near spot. It's too volatile.
Especially with today's prices. They are long PM's, and would much prefer their customers pay well over spot.

Trouble is that they issue so much for those who wish to buy one of each it makes almost impossible and costly to maintain a collection....
 
fishtaco said:
I agree but just buy the flipper/collector sellers expected over inflated premium! Just take a look at PM Luna,s. I would think that in not too many years the collector/flipper high resale premium demanded now will significantly lower due to the flood of Lunas from every mint and their dog.

There are so many lunas minted there really isnt anything special about them other than collectors/flippers loading up on them in the hope of making even more but it will come to an end with those holding the most who paid the most loosing. PM should have stopped at a single first release but along with other mints they only really care about "their" sales profit and why shouldnt they? A collector coin release is not meant for individuals to load up on in tubes and tubes until "now" lol

Look how cheap you can pick up 90,s proof kooks compared to square cap and the small premium difference between square cap and re mint round caps!

Wedge tailed eagle! hard to buy 2014 coins at a reasonable premium if you missed out but now there is a 2015 and may be an every year release (still a first issue limited mint) but who really cares when each subsequent year is identical.

I am sure true numi collectors will trade as long as they are alive but the newer generations are interested in "new" not "old"

My money is on the Koala being the best PM bullion coin to collect but I am only interested in one of each and not re sale value.same as all my bullion coins :)

Spot on fishtaco..Well said
 
-j-p-shmorgan said:
They are long PM's, and would much prefer their customers pay well over spot.

Perth Mint isn't long PMs and I'd be surprised if any major mint is. Premiums have nothing to do with spot price volatility.
 
bron suchecki said:
-j-p-shmorgan said:
They are long PM's, and would much prefer their customers pay well over spot.

Perth Mint isn't long PMs and I'd be surprised if any major mint is. Premiums have nothing to do with spot price volatility.

Bron does PM ever discuss those other than legit dealers buying up hoards of bullion coins at release in name of self profit and the possible damage it may cause to PM,s far future release coins?

I would imagine (being new to collecting ) that pre "everyone internet" and ebay that today's scale of flipping coins at inflated prices would not have been possible.
 
Born you are right premiums have to do with supply and demand of the real coin: spot has nothing to do with physical supply and demand. When you print paper metal to the tune of 100x leverage how can supply of the real metal impact spot - it can't.
 
bron suchecki said:
-j-p-shmorgan said:
They are long PM's, and would much prefer their customers pay well over spot.

Perth Mint isn't long PMs and I'd be surprised if any major mint is. Premiums have nothing to do with spot price volatility.

Hi there, You say you work for the Perth Mint. What's your stance on this topic ? Do you think they are devaluing their product by over supply of too many high premium coins / sets ? Regardless, I think you'll find the answer to this question within the next 5 years. The Australia Post story highlights that real collector value is not based on fads or hype or short term marketing strategies. The consumer soon sees through that, and give up ultimately as collecting becomes unsustainable on the hip pocket. As for me, I have given up buying the Perth Mint product for the time being until they show signs of reducing the product flow, mintage, premium and fix the milk spot issue. Like my Father, it's time to cut thread...Cheers
 
bron suchecki said:
-j-p-shmorgan said:
They are long PM's, and would much prefer their customers pay well over spot.

Perth Mint isn't long PMs and I'd be surprised if any major mint is. Premiums have nothing to do with spot price volatility.

My point was that mints would rather unload high premium items, rather than low premium.
When rounds and coins are flying out the door at absurdly high premiums...where is the incentive to provide low premium items?
Spot prices impact premiums...and I'd argue the volatility is part of what makes selling high premium items much "safer".
In a market that could go up or down (who knows these days) - the high premium sell is the safe bet for more accumulation in Ounces.
 
-j-p-shmorgan said:
My point was that mints would rather unload high premium items, rather than low premium.
When rounds and coins are flying out the door at absurdly high premiums...where is the incentive to provide low premium items?.


Of course they would rather unload high premium to low premium...this is a standard business model in a capitalistic world.
Why wouldnt a business push products with a higher profit margin? This is not just a precious metals thing.
In answering that the answer to the second part of what you raise is self evident.
 
fishtaco said:
bron suchecki said:
-j-p-shmorgan said:
They are long PM's, and would much prefer their customers pay well over spot.

Perth Mint isn't long PMs and I'd be surprised if any major mint is. Premiums have nothing to do with spot price volatility.

Bron does PM ever discuss those other than legit dealers buying up hoards of bullion coins at release in name of self profit and the possible damage it may cause to PM,s far future release coins?

I would imagine (being new to collecting ) that pre "everyone internet" and ebay that today's scale of flipping coins at inflated prices would not have been possible.

Or conversely due to the internet it has made too much of the product too easy to get hold off. For example in the old days buying stamps was limited to dealers, markets or the odd garage sale. This making a collection more difficult to acquire, but also allowing those to sell at higher prices. Now online there is a endless list of people selling the same stamps all competing. Of course the consumer would buy what is offered at a lower price according to condition. Same goes for bullion. At any given moment there are multiple choices of lunars, kooks etc to purchase. All supposed to have a rarity of 50,000 to 500,000 ( what a joke ) sold for different prices or auctioned off. This ease of purchase and those who mint anything and everything at high levels ( such as The PM ) makes a mockery of long term collectability and sustainability of their value.
 
Stoic Phoenix said:
-j-p-shmorgan said:
My point was that mints would rather unload high premium items, rather than low premium.
When rounds and coins are flying out the door at absurdly high premiums...where is the incentive to provide low premium items?.


Of course they would rather unload high premium to low premium...this is a standard business model in a capitalistic world.
Why wouldnt a business push products with a higher profit margin? This is not just a precious metals thing.
In answering that the answer to the second part of what you raise is self evident.

Sorry for stating the obvious - but this guy says "Premiums have nothing to do with spot price volatility."
Just providing some reasons why I believe that statement to be incorrect.
 
Stoic Phoenix said:
-j-p-shmorgan said:
My point was that mints would rather unload high premium items, rather than low premium.
When rounds and coins are flying out the door at absurdly high premiums...where is the incentive to provide low premium items?.


Of course they would rather unload high premium to low premium...this is a standard business model in a capitalistic world.
Why wouldnt a business push products with a higher profit margin? This is not just a precious metals thing.
In answering that the answer to the second part of what you raise is self evident.

This is so true..This makes it good for The Mints short term, but bad news for the consumer long term. Such business models by just pumping out more and more product usually ends in tears for both the producer and the consumer...
 
Believe what you want JP but premiums have very little to do with spot price volatility....They get sold for what they think people will pay for them.
As people do pay the extra this justifies (to the producer) the continuation.
Why invest basically the same amount of cost into say something that brings in for example $5 over spot when it can be spent on something that brings in $50 over spot? To please people that want low premium? Try selling that line to a board of directors or shareholders.
 
Stoic Phoenix said:
Believe what you want JP but premiums have very little to do with spot price volatility....They get sold for what they think people will pay for them.
As people do pay the extra this justifies the continuation.
Why invest basically the same amount of cost into a say something that brings in for example $5 over spot when it can be spent on something that brings in $50 over spot? To please people that want low premium? Try selling that line to a board of directors or shareholders.

There is a conspiracy among the dealers & mints in price setting. Funny how they all jump up, or lower at the same time.
What happened to competitive fair market trading? :lol:

And to answer your question : to gain MORE customers on products that SHOULD BE highly competitive.
More customers = more friends of customers. More buyers = more sales.

Nothing wrong at all appealing to customers who prefer lower premium items.
I'd argue it would boost overall sales in the long run.
 
Business' care less about sales than they do about costs and % profit margins.
As a business owner would you rather $5 million in sales at 1% profit or $3 mill sales at 5% profit?
You need to take off those rose coloured glasses JP and see the real world for what it is
 
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