Another round of smackdown is ahead for Gold and Silver

Proper Gander said:
Somewhat unusual for Silver to get smacked down in Asia. Any news?
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Chinese Lunar New Year long long public holiday, happened all the past years :)
 
leon1998 said:
Swap dealer is equivalent of market-maker in this rigged futures market. How can they lose money? ;)

They're sitting on massive short contracts, and they have to cover them somehow with a profit. I am simply following them. Is it a good time to buy silver? I would wait until swap dealer's short/long ratio reduces to 1:1. So far it is more than 2:1. It's gonna take some time, be patient.
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Although silver has broken thru the long term downtrend line recently, I believe we will see one more drop in prices before the bull comes back. If this were the real deal so to speak we would have moved higher last week (at least into the $16's).

Jim
 
anigif_enhanced-buzz-6402-1361209719-0.gif
 
leon1998 said:
My silver short position is deep water now, crap.

Commercial traders tend to have deeper pocket than I have. So I decided to double down my silver short @15.72, and I would like to see how Swap dealers unwind their short position in the following weeks.
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That takes some balls to double down, well depending how much. I'm still not touching it with a stick. I rebought SLW @ 10.90 earlier in Jan, and wanted to buy puts on SLV @15.00+ ( didn't do it ) last week I'm not too familiar with options trading yet, but would've been in the money at the moment. I think ultimately, it will head down, but China and the US both online will show where it'll go tomorrow. With some of my other holdings i'm hurting pretty bad, but what can you do. I can't take it out cause of tax issues. Not selling or buying right now.. but building up more cash only buying bits here and there.
 
Jim4silver said:
I think the silver chart looks like a cup and handle forming. If so, once at $16 or so we will drop to form the handle, then up past $16 if we are in fact in a bullish cycle again (short term, long term?). If not bullish then we go back in the $14s and maybe lower.

I have no clue which it will be. Good to see you back Leon.

Jim
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Isn't the handle supposed to form in the top half of the pattern? We are clearly in the bottom half, and the 'cup' seems more like a 'mug', which would seem more fitting considering the average silver investor :lol:

avoid handles which are too deep since the handles should form in the top half of the cup pattern
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willrocks said:
Jim4silver said:
I think the silver chart looks like a cup and handle forming. If so, once at $16 or so we will drop to form the handle, then up past $16 if we are in fact in a bullish cycle again (short term, long term?). If not bullish then we go back in the $14s and maybe lower.

I have no clue which it will be. Good to see you back Leon.

Jim
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Isn't the handle supposed to form in the top half of the pattern? We are clearly in the bottom half, and the 'cup' seems more like a 'mug', which would seem more fitting considering the average silver investor :lol:

avoid handles which are too deep since the handles should form in the top half of the cup pattern
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I was talking about a short term cup and handle, not going back 30 years or whatever it is. Look at the chart in my link. Go back to late Oct 2015 till now. Cup forming no handle yet.

FWIW: I actually think we are going a bit lower. Not that it matters much, but the right side of the cup didn't go exactly high enough in my opinion. Plus the bottom of the cup has the small peaks and valleys instead of a more "smooth" look to it.

Thus, I think we will re-visit recent lows before any take off, which I do think will happen this year some time.


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER

Jim
 
Jim4silver said:
I was talking about a short term cup and handle, not going back 30 years or whatever it is. Look at the chart in my link. Go back to late Oct 2015 till now. Cup forming no handle yet.

FWIW: I actually think we are going a bit lower. Not that it matters much, but the right side of the cup didn't go exactly high enough in my opinion. Plus the bottom of the cup has the small peaks and valleys instead of a more "smooth" look to it.

Thus, I think we will re-visit recent lows before any take off, which I do think will happen this year some time.


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER

Jim
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You mean this one:

6641_stackers_cup.png
 
Just saw the G/S ratio hit 80 on Kitco. I think we are gonna have another drop before lift off. Gold did great today silver just sort of sat there. We won't get another COT report till next Monday because of this week's Monday holiday. Should be interesting to see what happens.

I wonder if Leon is still holding on?

Jim
 
This market surely is designed to scare out investors. That might work for the ETF folks alright but a real stacker is not impressed by this up/down. Makes for great buying opportunity.
 
I am bullish on silver, but I'm not convinced this is a cup and handle formation.

Cup and handle is supposed to be a formation inside a bullish trend, but this is at a market bottom. The handle retracement is also supposed to be a bit deeper and longer than what is currently showing. If the cup was about 3 months then I'd expect the handle to be atleast 2-3 weeks and be more like a 30-50% retracement.

To me this just looks like an exhausted bear market that is lethargically trying to break out of the downtrend. It is lagging, but it should take the lead from golds breakout and then play a game of catch up. For now though I think Silver would have remained pretty lifeless if not for the inspiration its getting from gold.
 
Today's released weekly silver future report:

Swap dealer:
LONG SHORT
25,391 51,341

That is NET SHORT of 25,950 contracts! considering each contract has 5,000 oz and US$15 per oz, this is about US$1.95B bet Banksters are making against silver. ;)
 
leon1998 said:
Today's released weekly silver future report:

Swap dealer:
LONG SHORT
25,391 51,341

That is NET SHORT of 25,950 contracts! considering each contract has 5,000 oz and US$15 per oz, this is about US$1.95B bet Banksters are making against silver. ;)
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Here are the gold and silver COT reports. I thought they didn't release them on Friday when there was a Fed holiday during the week- maybe I dreamt that? Looking at this week's numbers I say NO WAY is it rocket time yet. I am bullish as anyone but I still think one more drop before lift off. Maybe just below $14 or lower, who knows? Wouldn't be a bad thing, better buying opportunity.

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1455914187.php

Jim
 
Yes the handle should be about 3 weeks long. I'm still holding out that this will be a 10% rally from where we end up once the handle forms. March is funny.
 
You never know, it could be one of the lesser known charting events about to take place.
It is called " The cup with weakened handle" formation. Also known as the "Hot lap after Hairline crack".....( it is where the handle falls off and you end up with hot tea on your private parts.)
Very rare but very dangerous.
 
theFNG said:
Yes the handle should be about 3 weeks long. I'm still holding out that this will be a 10% rally from where we end up once the handle forms. March is funny.
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Is that a handle to the side aiming up or down?
Or do we end up back where we are today..
 
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