Another bears "Facts on Silver"

D

dragonslive

Member
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty042511.html

Summary:
Here's what all potential investors in silver need to know.

1. The chart of silver has gone parabolic. Parabolic charts mark tops no matter what the commodity.

2. The bullish consensus on silver is at a record high. Record high bullish consensus on any commodity is common at tops.

3. When the most credible guys in an industry start explaining why supply and demand don't really work, it's a top. With 19 billion ounces of silver above ground we aren't about to run out any time soon.

4. When guys start writing about silver that didn't have a clue as to what it was or what it was used for at the bottom, you are at a top. I'm astonished at both the ignorance and the arrogance of the newly invented silver "Gurus."

5. When the smartest guys in an industry start telling you, "This time it's different," it's not. It's just a top.
Click to expand...

Any comments? I don't know enough to know..........does anyone? :cool:
 
I *hope* he's right and the market drops so I can buy more :)

See it's trending downwards now! SELL SELL SELL :D
 
dragonslive said:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty042511.html

Summary:
Here's what all potential investors in silver need to know.

1. The chart of silver has gone parabolic. Parabolic charts mark tops no matter what the commodity.

2. The bullish consensus on silver is at a record high. Record high bullish consensus on any commodity is common at tops.

3. When the most credible guys in an industry start explaining why supply and demand don't really work, it's a top. With 19 billion ounces of silver above ground we aren't about to run out any time soon.

4. When guys start writing about silver that didn't have a clue as to what it was or what it was used for at the bottom, you are at a top. I'm astonished at both the ignorance and the arrogance of the newly invented silver "Gurus."

5. When the smartest guys in an industry start telling you, "This time it's different," it's not. It's just a top.
Click to expand...

Any comments? I don't know enough to know..........does anyone? :cool:
Click to expand...

(1) who knows, even if it is a temporary parabolic movment where will the price settle? Even if it comes back 20% to around $40, its not a panick.
(2) if bullish consensus is so high, then why are there so many shorts on the market. I would be more worried if there were significant net longs coupled with a parabolic move.
(3) need to look at the net demand coupled with new supply from mining. Net demand is rising. (i dont have all the figures here)
(4) when your local taxi driver starts talking about this stuff, then maybe i will be more concerned. Silver is still off the radar of the mainstream investment community.
etc etc
 
The holiday weekend has painted a short term top perhaps but there are still a lot of bears around. Top callers always come out when their is a good rally but so far they have been wrong. Worry when you struggle to find a bear.
 
The Merchant said:
(4) when your local taxi driver starts talking about this stuff, then maybe i will be more concerned. Silver is still off the radar of the mainstream investment community.
etc etc
Click to expand...

I actually had a taxi driver tell me gold and silver were cheap some time in late '07-early '08.

Some of those guys really have their ear to the ground.
 
Is the section before the bull trap parabolic? To be realistic if this is all there is, its a tad bit pathetic. With all that money swooshing around and the fundamentals, well if this is all there is I can't say I missed out on much
 
Charts,
Expert opinions,
Forecasts,
Parabolic lines,
Investment Guru's,
Bull runs,
Bear runs
.OMG!!Im glad i'm in my 40's.
 
Out of curiosity does Bob Moriarty have to disclose his financial positions when he writes these articles.

Given the 'certainty' of his opinions, i wonder if he was shorting the silver market. Nothing like writing an opinion to protect a loosing position (by the way i am only speculating here, i have no idea if this is occuring or not)
 
The Merchant said:
Out of curiosity does Bob Moriarty have to disclose his financial positions when he writes these articles.

Given the 'certainty' of his opinions, i wonder if he was shorting the silver market. Nothing like writing an opinion to protect a loosing position (by the way i am only speculating here, i have no idea if this is occuring or not)
Click to expand...

Good question, I take everything with a grain of salt these days. After-all when so many people are "certain" and each have different statements on what that certainty is, you really can't take anyone seriously.

What is the line??? "Everyone has an agenda"......

One of the things that can become overwhelming with the amount of information available on the internet is that you can find support for any idea, opinion or prediction you choose to investigate.

Perhaps "discernment" may become the new survival mechanism in the new world of information overload.
 
I'm expecting it to drop into the early 30s. There are major forces at work that we know nothing about.

I agree there is a bubble in silver and gold commentary. Here on SS most understand that 'it' is money, but the world still sees 'commodity' and acts accordingly. I saw a quote one time about 'the bull shaking off the weak willed' and we might be about to see something like that. As long as you're happy to hold and hold and hold then the current price fixing bubble shenanigans won't faze you. If you need to pay your 'silver loan on your credit card' :) or similar and are trading for profit, versus saving for a future, then you may find the next rise a bit too far away and the current charts and bumps a bit nerve wracking.

If it keeps climbing to 100 without pause then I'm out till order is restored - don't need the stress - and there is always another bargain. lol
 
JulieW You might have to be come a flipper instead of a stacker. Buy and sell, make fiat and buy when you think the market has bottomed. It is a very hard time at present with prices going the way they are. I feel very uncertain too and I have started to think gold is good value in AU$.

Regards Errol43
 
Silver is once again picking up volatility and has broken short term support and fallen to 45.40. Next resistance points i see are:
45.10
44.65

Could be more to come, down approx 10% in a few days.
For now shorting again at 45.80 if 45.80 acts as a ceiling.

To protect against short squeeze, am net long gold overall, but larger short in silver when trade is on, trying to arbiterage the two still, working nicely :)
 
BigBen said:
Silver is once again picking up volatility and has broken short term support and fallen to 45.40. Next resistance points i see are:
45.10
44.65

Could be more to come, down approx 10% in a few days.
For now shorting again at 45.80 if 45.80 acts as a ceiling.

To protect against short squeeze, am net long gold overall, but larger short in silver when trade is on, trying to arbiterage the two still, working nicely :)
Click to expand...

For a short term trade seems like good logic to me. Just keep those stop losses tight.
 
Has anyone checked the ratio of CALLS to PUTS atm, and seen volume change?
This will show where alot of the momentum will be shifting for SLV, in my opinion that is ;)
 
The Merchant said:
BigBen said:
Silver is once again picking up volatility and has broken short term support and fallen to 45.40. Next resistance points i see are:
45.10
44.65

Could be more to come, down approx 10% in a few days.
For now shorting again at 45.80 if 45.80 acts as a ceiling.

To protect against short squeeze, am net long gold overall, but larger short in silver when trade is on, trying to arbiterage the two still, working nicely :)
Click to expand...

For a short term trade seems like good logic to me. Just keep those stop losses tight.
Click to expand...

Silver now attacking 44.65 level.
Dangerous now, i see medium support at 43.00 with short term supports all the way down, but they may not hold given market uncertainty.
 
The Merchant said:
Out of curiosity does Bob Moriarty have to disclose his financial positions when he writes these articles.

Given the 'certainty' of his opinions, i wonder if he was shorting the silver market. Nothing like writing an opinion to protect a loosing position (by the way i am only speculating here, i have no idea if this is occuring or not)
Click to expand...

I've been a little wary of Bob Moriarty ever since I saw this ... http://forums.silverstackers.com/message-99625.html

Now I don't know who was actually right and who was wrong in that exchange, but I am less inclined to believe any one particular expert or pundit, especially if such "expert" makes absolute and definitive statements as Bob tends to do (a lot). Rather I trust in my own decisions after research, which may or may not involve taking the views of those experts and pundits into account.
 
He makes a lot of points in that article, and it is refreshing to see a counterweight to all the bullish calls.

But, he writes like others in the pm general media, in that he does not reference.

However, to his credit, he made an attempt at a mathematic calculation in this article.

Did anyone read the whole thing? Worthwhile - the story about a prominent guy calling a shortage in toilet paper as a joke, leading to a run on toilet paper was classic.

They must have pissed themselves laughing.

I'm only going to have a look at one of Bob M's points here - the gold-silver ratio of 15-16:1. I confess, I've parrotted it myself, knowing full well that I didn't know exactly what it was based on, other than a vague recollection of number crunching of the known mined production.

So, a quick look reveals in Wiki (abundance of minerals in earth's crust) tha, in terms of crustal abundance:

gold is 0.004 ppm
silver is 0.075 ppm

ratio of 1:18.75

what we(I) don't know is how those ppm figures are calculated, nor do we know the degree of confidence in their accuracy

but let's leave it there for the moment, because when we are talking about the Earth's crust, we are talking about a geologically defined structure varying between 5-70km thick, and averaging 35km thick.

Obviously, a fair bit of that is too deep to mine. The deepest mine is the TauTona gold mine in South Africa, a gold mine.

Furthermore, 71% of the world is covered by ocean and last time I looked, we don't have gills.

Bob M comes up with a figure of around 1:64 GSR. It seems remarkable, but what it looks like he has done is this:

take the wiki estimates for elemental abundance in the lithosphere and call it a day.

These are:

silver .07 ppm
gold .0011 ppm

63.63:1

Now, it is important to know that the lithosphere not only includes the crust, but also the upper mantle.

We already know that the deepest mine is less than 4km on land.

I think Bob M can sling horseshit as good as any silver bug.

I'll look into this is a little more, just have to change battery. brb
 
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