And now the rise begins again !

[damien192x]

Industrial use increasing, investor levels increasing, World reserve currency IE: U.S Dollar about to tank and along with it all the bank's and market manipulators with it that prop each other up.

The US $ tanking is the one that worries me.

IF it tanks it will take pretty much all economies with it. If this occurs then the Chinese demand for our raw commodities will plummet causing massive pressure on commodities including silver. If there is an increase of supply (more mines coming online over the next year or so) and a large decrease in demand (Silver is mostly an industrial commodity) - price will suffer.

Yes - the Aus $ will absorb SOME of the shock but as we are considered to be a commodity dollar - I cant see us doing that well either.

From my research - the US $ tanking will be bad news for silver although I think the gold bugs will be a bit more insulated.

malachii

PS - This is my thoughts only - others will disagree

Don't forget your typical american idiot who wake up and suddely realise that the numbers in his bank account will be useless.
When gold becomes out of their reach - silver will be the next best thing for them. So down, then up up up

 

[Ernster]

Don't forget your typical american idiot who wake up and suddely realise that the numbers in his bank account will be useless.
When gold becomes out of their reach - silver will be the next best thing for them. So down, then up up up

I dont know mate. People were a bit smarter in the 70's/80s....who knows if they will put 2 and 2 together in this day and age.

 

[malachii]

Don't forget your typical american idiot who wake up and suddely realise that the numbers in his bank account will be useless.
When gold becomes out of their reach - silver will be the next best thing for them. So down, then up up up

But if his bank account is useless - what will he use to buy silver? And even if he can buy silver - investment/currency only accounts for a very small segment of the silver demand. The industrial side takes well over 70% of all production. If the industrial side tanks even by only 50% due to reduced demand - the increase in available supply will far out strip any increase in investment/currency demand and swamp the price.

malachii

 

[malachii]

Are you talking about the American bond market tanking or it's purchasing power tanking ?

A combination of both. I consider them interlinked to a large degree.

malachii

 

[keggahz]

I'm not denying property prices will drop out west and rural areas, however wealthy areas in sydney and in the city will not drop as people will pay big dollars to live by the water and close to the city. With population increasing houses are getting knocked down and units are going up- houses are becoming less around my areas which is jacking the prices up.

I will believe you fellas when we have to lower our rent, so much for silver dropping like a ball, lucky i sold up at $50- as far as I'm concerned you boys can analyse as much as you like, but its all a guessing game- it's gambling. Property has proven (IN THE CORRECT suburbs- you must do your homework) to be more stable

We are only just seeing silver manipulated... I think I'd prefer to have my money in property than silver right now- especially after silver taking a 20% drop- houses in my area have not decreased 20%!

 

[trader10]

The only thing I worry about it is : if silver rises way too rapidly back up.... then it has a much easier probability to crash again..... it would be child's play not only for traders but for the commercial bankers IMHO.....

We did need a correction to keep it health and bullish..... now, we need to hear some news here.....if the rise is to be rapidly, we must hear some bullish news IMHO....

Perhaps some country that bought it big...or a big investor entering the market or even a current fund topping it up.... something with "demand" related..... but, are we going to hear about it so soon ? It all depends...

Say, if China is one of them behind the buying up, you can forget about hearing it so soon...... but, with so many factors around the corner, like the debt ceiling in August, Greece, Spain, Inflation, Deflation, printing money..... well.... anything is possible....and boy we are living in a fast world.... fast times...... it's almost like the world is accelerating all events......

I wonder when we will start to hear from the people that were calling silver a bubble or a top..... as we al know, the same ppl will try to say they've bought at this dip/drop ..... the old talk show......

Then again..... is that much PHYSICAL to go around ??? think again... :lol:

 

[Contrarian]

We are only just seeing silver manipulated... I think I'd prefer to have my money in property than silver right now- especially after silver taking a 20% drop- houses in my area have not decreased 20%!

Now I know I get lumped in with the property bulls on here, but for christ sake don't lump me in with this one.


C

 

[Guest]

Don't forget your typical american idiot who wake up and suddely realise that the numbers in his bank account will be useless.
When gold becomes out of their reach - silver will be the next best thing for them. So down, then up up up

But if his bank account is useless - what will he use to buy silver? And even if he can buy silver - investment/currency only accounts for a very small segment of the silver demand. The industrial side takes well over 70% of all production. If the industrial side tanks even by only 50% due to reduced demand - the increase in available supply will far out strip any increase in investment/currency demand and swamp the price.

malachii

As the west declines based on a worthless fiat the east will gain and their fiat will at least equal the reserve value ,if not increase, the demand will increase as the west's dollar depreciates as commodity's become more affordable to the masses of the east and their fiat increases in value compared to ours and providers compete for sales based on a falling dollar value for us.

The status quo will remain but will reverse from our benefit to theirs, it will open a new age of affordability for the east and a new age of reality for the west. Just think of the population of the U.S discovering the Ipad as the new form of entertainment and contact overnight as the yuan achieves an exchange rate of even parity.

Demand will not fail at all.

 

[silversardine]

I'm not denying property prices will drop out west and rural areas, however wealthy areas in sydney and in the city will not drop as people will pay big dollars to live by the water and close to the city.

Australia is bigger than the wealthy and city areas of Sydney, even bigger than out west and rural areas.

I think there are houses in some of the other bits.

 

[Yippe-Ki-Ya]

I'm not denying property prices will drop out west and rural areas, however wealthy areas in sydney and in the city will not drop as people will pay big dollars to live by the water and close to the city. With population increasing houses are getting knocked down and units are going up- houses are becoming less around my areas which is jacking the prices up.

I will believe you fellas when we have to lower our rent, so much for silver dropping like a ball, lucky i sold up at $50- as far as I'm concerned you boys can analyse as much as you like, but its all a guessing game- it's gambling. Property has proven (IN THE CORRECT suburbs- you must do your homework) to be more stable

We are only just seeing silver manipulated... I think I'd prefer to have my money in property than silver right now- especially after silver taking a 20% drop- houses in my area have not decreased 20%!

LOL!

 

[malachii]

Yes - but the premise is that some areas will fall harder than others. Bay views of Sydney or Melbourne will hold up better than outer suburban areas. Just look at the crash in the US. Outlying areas of Nevada have crashed bad whereas New York has declined a total of about 6%.

If you do your research and know your market - you can protect (or at least limit) your risks on the way up AND the way down.

malachii

 

[bellinvest]

I'm not denying property prices will drop out west and rural areas, however wealthy areas in sydney and in the city will not drop as people will pay big dollars to live by the water and close to the city. With population increasing houses are getting knocked down and units are going up- houses are becoming less around my areas which is jacking the prices up.

I will believe you fellas when we have to lower our rent, so much for silver dropping like a ball, lucky i sold up at $50- as far as I'm concerned you boys can analyse as much as you like, but its all a guessing game- it's gambling. Property has proven (IN THE CORRECT suburbs- you must do your homework) to be more stable

We are only just seeing silver manipulated... I think I'd prefer to have my money in property than silver right now- especially after silver taking a 20% drop- houses in my area have not decreased 20%!

Your playing with death

Everything works in cycles, the property market has already boomed and just stating to tinker over the edge ready to get the boot. The silver/gold market is halfway through its cycle and has a long long way to go...up that is.

When everyone is talking property property property boom boom boom, that's the time you get out. No brainer.

Look at

Auction clearance rates....pretty dismal
Every major capital city $price is dropping
The market is flooded with properties, with many many more about to join the cue as people wake up
Inflation increasing all over the world
Average median wage:average property price ration over the last 20 years will wake you up + the same graph for the rest of the world. Our prices are to be laughed at
That's a few, NONE are bullish for property.

All you have do is look at Ireland, they were in the EXACT same healthy position as us two years ago. Nothing could go wrong to their housing market. Now look at it.

Housing here in Australia is so over priced the world is laughing at us. The banks here in Aus coupled with the Gov has let it run and run to a stage where affordability is out of the majority of peoples reach. It WILL crash, we are seeing the signs now! and when it does bankruptcy will be hard to file. Tough laws. Tough luck

The property boom here in Australia is OVER. You would have made a lot if you got in 20 years ago.

 

[malachii]

You would have made a lot if you got in 20 years ago.

This is true of pretty much every major investment except silver.

malachii

EDIT: Sorry - that was probably a bit flippant (late night!!) but I think you understand what I mean. It's an unprovable argument in the short term but I am pretty sure that I can buy property today that will be worth a lot more in 20 years. Just because the property boom is over doesn't mean all property will never go up again.

 

[hem9]

You would have made a lot if you got in 20 years ago.

This is true of pretty much every major investment except silver.

malachii

EDIT: Sorry - that was probably a bit flippant (late night!!) but I think you understand what I mean. It's an unprovable argument in the short term but I am pretty sure that I can buy property today that will be worth a lot more in 20 years. Just because the property boom is over doesn't mean all property will never go up again.

I am actually of the same mind set, as even in the us there will be some hit hard, most will fall, some will stay steady and maybe a little will rise. It all depends on the market and the situation. So conceivably you can buy a house that will be worth more in 20 years but of course in a bear market you are playing with lesser percentages and more chance you will lose money. But I do agree that not ALL properties would be a bad investment even in a falling market

 

[malachii]

And don't forget - buy, hold and pray is only 1 way to make money with any investment. With all investments (in this case property) there are always more ways to profit other than capital growth.

malachii

 

[bellinvest]

You would have made a lot if you got in 20 years ago.

This is true of pretty much every major investment except silver.

malachii

EDIT: Sorry - that was probably a bit flippant (late night!!) but I think you understand what I mean. It's an unprovable argument in the short term but I am pretty sure that I can buy property today that will be worth a lot more in 20 years. Just because the property boom is over doesn't mean all property will never go up again.

I am actually of the same mind set, as even in the us there will be some hit hard, most will fall, some will stay steady and maybe a little will rise. It all depends on the market and the situation. So conceivably you can buy a house that will be worth more in 20 years but of course in a bear market you are playing with lesser percentages and more chance you will lose money. But I do agree that not ALL properties would be a bad investment even in a falling market

I agree that not all properties will fall. Picking the right area will be make or break. And 20% interest rates will have to be factored in to your calc's

It all depends on how the next few years play out in the world economy.

When no-one buy the bonds in the US/Europe then they fail...which will trickle on to Australia, or send a title wave of devastation?

Interesting times ahead.

Bullish for the shiny stuff though.

 

[hem9]

And don't forget - buy, hold and pray is only 1 way to make money with any investment. With all investments (in this case property) there are always more ways to profit other than capital growth.

malachii

Mate
As I have been saying I do not believe in the buy, hold and pray style. Hedged and sold my investment portion going to 50usd. Now buying back little by little to hedge going down. The same with my rental returns, they pay for themselves and then some.

 

[Shaddam IV]

It's not that property is a bad investment, it is that buying property now with a big loan is, which is basically the case for nearly all first home buyers I believe.

If you pick the right property and can afford to buy it outright then I would call that an excellent investment.

 

[Ilikemetals]

Properties in the very well sought after areas will drop less. Here in Canberra I know the central inner suburbs are going to hold strong and I have already seen articles in the last week declaring my suburb (most inner north suburb of the city) has shown the best returns by far.

The outer suburbs, particularly the southern areas of Tuggeranong are dropping in price already and will not hold out when this property bubble pops.

 

[lorry]

I have been playing the property game for more than a decade and for all that time people have been talking property bubble- there have always been peaks and troughs but over the long term it's served me well.... I have been buying silver for only months. Started when it was high 20's and bought again at 44... a much more stressful ride... I think it's all a gamble but I know i'll buy both again.