uuuuuuuumm said:
a lot of that is true , but pre 2011 prices where to low and 2011 they were to high, markets will always seek balance and sometimes they over shot, in the last 12 months or more it has been trying to find its right point, i believe its at its right value now.
so buying in now i might have to sit a few years or more to see any gains in $ value.
we all know what happened in 1980 am sure a lot of paper traders made some $ but that's about it.
You say pre 2011 prices were too low.
You say 2011 prices were too high.
But that's your opinion of silvers value.
Other people have other opinions of silvers value.
All together, they make the price what it is.
I take things / markets / people like they are.
On some future moments, you gonna sell silver.
Imagine its purchasing power / price is lower than what you judged as 'right'.
Imagine you tell people that that lower price isn't correct, that it should be higher and that you thus ask more.
What will people do, you think?
What would you do in their place?
Right.
Buying it elsewhere.
And that works. We didn't see real shortages. All we saw were some temp shortages for specific shapes (certain coins), which is quite expectable, with such a fluctuating price / demand.
What is the situation now? This last silver price uptrend from $27 to $35,5 was due to those that buy it on the Comex futures market. They added 40000 positions since mid augusts $27, which is 200 Moz zilver (the annual total supply is 1000 Moz, the Comex depositories hold 140 Moz, the Exchange Traded Fund Ishares Silver Trust SLV holds 318 Moz.
If they really thought that the higher price was a new bottom, why did they then agree to buy in the future? They could just have directly bought the silver then.
The reality is that they actually aren't interested in silver, only in the dollars from the people on its market. That's why physical delivery / physical settlement is very rare.
The same, but in a lesser degree, also applies to SLV.
Last year march+april, they bought over 200 tonnes silver, 6,43 Moz per day, for 37 market days in a row, for a grand total of 7639 tonnes more.
They drove the price up from $34 to $50, bringing that SLV stock of above (where I gave the 318 Moz number) from 11000 tonnes on 9 march 2011 to 18639 tonnes end april.
Then they dumped it all again, and even more (todays 318 Moz is 9900 tonnes, less than the 11000 tonnes on 9 march 2011).
So this recent $27 > $35,5 (now again $32) is only backed by the least buy and hold fashioned side of the silver market. I don't name that 'stability' lol.
Markets do not seek balance. Markets are situations, they do nothing, it's people on them acting, and some people are not on the silver market to buy something (here silver) that the central planners/bankers cannot water in value as easy as their fiatcurrencies, but to chew out free dollars (in terms of purchasing power) from others on its market. Much like pocket thieves. Pocket thieves on the market place aren't interested in what is for sale there, but what is in the pockets of the people that are interested.
'Playing' with silver is not a crime like a pocket thiefs act, but it has the very same consequence, so having a strategy (price targeting) to avoid being the one pickpocketed, is needed aswell as a silver stacker, or you likely end up being inflicting the same or higher loss than dollars had have been. It doesn't help to avoid a 40% purchasing power loss over a decade, by buying silver at a price that was bloated 40%. And more is worser, being that staying in dollars had been a better choice.
