Am I watching my life savings go down the plug hole ?

[dccpa]

pirocco, the industrial uses for silver are recent due to technological innovations and have nothing to do with low silver prices. Because of silver's unique properties, it cannot be substituted for most current uses and is relatively price inelastic.

Fifty years ago, half of silver usage was for film. That number has now dropped to somewhere around 5-15%. But the silver usage for cell phones, computers, etc. has offset that decreased photography demand. Since the new technologies are not going away any time soon and silver is not easily substituted for, there is no way silver can become a commplace currency again in our lifetimes.

Also, keep in mind that the percentage of silver recovered from recycling film was very high. The amount of silver used in each cell phone, etc., is too little to make recycling worthwhile. And the technological and medical uses for silver are only increasing. We need silver, but it is not plentiful enough to serve both as a commonplace currency and as an industrial metal.

 

[Photonaware]

Miscellaneous funds etc performacne over the past 12 months.
Guess which one is the stack ?
No prizes for getting it right - sorry

http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/731_chartbuilder.png

So, it's a worser time to sell.
So, it's a better time to buy.
Isn't it funny how sentiment reflected in charts should be treaten as an opposite signal?
When everything appears sunshine flower bees, sell.
When everything appears dark dead graveyard, buy.
This is the origin of the terminology bull / bear. The bull throws his victims in the air (tries to make them hesitate to sell / buy high), the bear pushes his victims down the ground (tries to make them hesitate to buy / sell low).
Now find the chart of the time period before this chart, and it shows the opposite 'performance'.

Specifically in response to your last comment - Now find the chart of the time period before this chart, and it shows the opposite 'performance'

Absolutely !
BUT we are reviewing the past 6-12 months only and from the discussion inputs, anyone who invested in PMs in early 2013 has lost out compared to most other investments.
Maybe markets will reverse and PMs shoot up in price but hard fiat converted into metal has lost up to 50% in the past 12 months and that is lot to recover from.

 

[Slam]

That still doesn't mean that metals preserve the purchasing power you had when you paid too much for them, Ronnie 666. If one pays a price that later halves (relative to other products), and then the price doubles and the other products double too, then that one still lost half the purchasing power he had when he bought the metals.
Tell me then, what's the difference between this loss, and a 50% haircut like for ex in Cyprus?
This makes clear that the risk you see within the banking system deposits, exists as well in precious metals.

Purchasing power is an illusion on what your fiat currency can buy today or before (well the value it buys you). If you worked, clearly you were paid in dollars and you used that dollars to buy something else of value to you.

Considering, if you look at most of the jobs. Alot of them do not produce anything or add value any where. Yet these people are paid in Australia and have a very good standard of living. I have said it previously look at the effort and energy on what it takes to actually produce food, metals or anything else?

Can you look at yourself and see whether you are self sufficient at producing any or all of these things you own. For one, I couldn't (the computers, TVs, even the food I eat, even the car I drive). Everything I buy from a shop. All I know how to do is sit on my arse at work and type things (programmer). Yet my company can charge the client more then 1oz of AU per day for the efforts.

Consider yourselves fortunate to be able to hold these PMs in your hands without much effort or blood and sweat (if you work in physically demanding jobs). Do you want to dig 32tonnes of dirt and refine it to 1oz AU or just work for 1 week and buy it (while sitting in front of a computer). I would say a lot of things in this current world we live in is mis-valued, under or over. You just have to find the ones you think are under, buy and hold. I know my labour is overvalued, while I buy PMs and other stuff I enjoy which is undervalued.

I would say if bought some PMs don't regret it and enjoy the ride that will eventually come. If not, then the system is still functioning. Continue to enjoy the current lifestyle, this will not always be. If we do not see it, then your kids will see it or your grand kids. Eventually the fruits will be realised, just do not over commit. Stack and forget (just like bitcoins, for those early adopters).

Merry Christmas...

Slam

 

[Holdfast]

Weird!

You buy a new car, you drive it out the dealership...you lose fiat. (No I don't only if I have to sell)

You buy soil additives for your garden like mushroom compost and other organic soil enrichers...you lose fiat. (Not me...that triggers healthy soil so I grow more food)


You go on a holiday...you lose fiat. (No...I gain experience and un-forgetable mental images of where I have been and what I did)

You buy stocks that go turtle...you loose fiat. (That's happened to me...but I also gained knowledge...that's why I don't own stocks now in this overheated stockmarket with crap PE ratios!)

You buy bitcoin...you can loose the lot. (Just check Mt. Gox...pure speculation and gambling)

You buy text books...you use fiat to pass that TAFE course...you loose fiat. (Knowledge is priceless...you haven't lost a thing, you've converted fiat into being multi-skilled

You buy a tree from the nursery...you loose fiat. (No loss...food, shade, micr-climate properties)

You buy a house to live-in...you loose fiat. (No...I don't care about ups and downs of house prices...I own mine and I'm not selling)

You buy physical gold...you loose fiat. (No...it's a store of wealth (History provides proof) and a loss is only applicable if I have to sell...I have back-up knowledge and skills so I don't have to "care" about selling)

You buy physical platinum...you loose fiat. (As Above)

You buy silver...you loose fiat. (As Above)


FFS...that's all perception!


For a start...
If I use basic example like...an "organic" garden, I might spend quite a bit of fiat to get my permaculture garden up and running but have I lost fiat? To many of you...you would say yes...but to me...I say know because I know how to sustain production and keep the soil healthy and of course "you" not me...don't see all the extra benefits of that system.

Many of you guys don't see what wealth is...you don't see a crook system and you sure don't know about wealth protection or ways to ensure you can survive on your own.

Owning precious metal is the smart man's way of wealth protection by diversifying his spare fiat into a metal that in the long or short term will ensure survival when a sytem is sick.

Sure...many of you can say that the drop in precious metals prices has reduced a blokes fiat spot price of that metal and of course if you still had the same fiat...you could buy more at todays spot price.

See...that's where many of you are clever What you don't understand is the fiat system can change quickly and if there ever was a turn-around for precious metal...you would have people like myself and others sitting back...while you bears are scratching your balls, asking your-self what just happened.

What some of you preceive as lost fiat...does not register...I understand what you say...but...some of you guys better start to learn how to look after yourself instead of having your head-in-the-sand and relying on others.

All the best for Xmas

H

 

[Golden ChipMunk]

^^ well said. How many standup for yourself.

 

[Peter]

You pays your money, and you takes your chances.
Nothings certain.

 

[Ronnie 666]

You pays your money, and you takes your chances.
Nothings certain.

Peter what is 100% certain is that they (the central governments suppported by the banking cartel) will go bust. That is a mathematical certainty. What is not certain is when (precise date) that will occur and what will follow. So, to that end get ready.

 

[swoydaz]

Ok. Tell me if I've got this right.

Governments go broke.

Fiat currency has no power or function.

From there on we buy our food and pay bills with bullion.

Is that it?

 

[Ronnie 666]

Maybe -that is only one of many, many possible outcomes. Another, is that as they approach bankruptcy they begin a global war. Another, is that they hyperinflate rather than default. This is my personal belief. Whatever happens this is unprecedented on a global scale, so you need a plan to protect yourself. PM is part of that plan. Keeping your cash in the bank and your head in the sand is not a plan.

 

[sammysilver]

I think in the first couple of weeks we will have a bank holiday. Very little access to ATMs. Cash will be king. All credit cards will also be frozen. Cash and food will be king. We will then have bail-ins aka haircuts. Cash, food and bullion will be king. We then have anarchy, Cash, food, bullion and guns will be king.

 

[Ronnie 666]

One certainly gets a feeling that something is going to happen soon. The shills are out in force and everything is just wonderful as the stock market is at a new high - going higher, housing prices just peachy (all warm and fuzzy), but don't tell anyone that the 10 year note approaches 2.99%..... What CDS await us after 3% ? Yes January and February will be very interesting ? If you are waiting for the perfect moment to back up the truck on PM you surely don't understand.

 

[Pirocco]

Some are waiting for the perfect moment to sell, and there are some stocks out there, readily available to do so.
http://sprottphysicalsilvertrust.com/NetAssetValue.aspx
2010/11/10 22,298,525
2013/04/16 49,287,870

http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/SLV.htm
2012/04/12 308,370,469.900
2013/01/16 345,137,860.600
2013/06/25 317,709,349.100
2013/12/24 321,814,189.100

http://www.etfsecurities.com/msl/etfs_physical_silver_us.asp
2013/12/12 17,764,340

http://www.etfsecurities.com/msl/etfs_physical_silver.asp
2013/12/24 33,303,157

http://www.zkb.ch/de/startseite/pri...stoff_fonds/zkb_silver_etf/publikationen.html
2013/03/28 51,821,821
(could be changed since, dunno)

http://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls
172.847.031.532

http://www.centralfund.com/Nav Form.htm
2012/05/25 76,964,103

Together 746 Moz paper-represented silver allocated in central stocks kept close to the market place.
And then the similar heavy silver bars of those without reporting duties.
Hell, the price dropped with 50% and above stocks even rose a little, indicating that this price drop didn't require their sales.
And then all the coins. Look at the Mint sales figures of recent years. Those will also popup one day for sale, and a higher price can surely serve as the trigger for it. How many here would run with their stacks to the dealer if the spot price would be driven to $30 next year?

All together probably close to 1 world annual total silver production.
Sell 10% of it every year 10 years in a row, and it can undo a 10% demand rise 10 years in a row, thus preventing the price from going up.

I'm not waiting for perfect moments, but I do have some patience to wait for... better moments, and receive... more silver, maybe compensating for my... less receiving since 2011.

 

[Peter]

You pays your money, and you takes your chances.
Nothings certain.

Peter what is 100% certain is that they (the central governments suppported by the banking cartel) will go bust. That is a mathematical certainty. What is not certain is when (precise date) that will occur and what will follow. So, to that end get ready.

I would never have believed that things could have held together for as long as they have.
If they can do that, any thing is possible.
Nothing is certain.
Things may recover.

 

[alor]

I'm feeling very nervous about silver prices being in free fall,

I've put all my eggs in one basket here, I'd been saving heavy and built up a nice big pile of cash which I put into silver bars and gold coins,

I went all in in the summer, every penny I've ever saved is now tied up in PM

Don't think I'll ever get to retire now, think i'll be working till the day I drop dead at this rate !

It's not looking good is it ?

so your timing was out, grow some balls mate.

a keeper

 

[Ronnie 666]

You pays your money, and you takes your chances.
Nothings certain.

Peter what is 100% certain is that they (the central governments suppported by the banking cartel) will go bust. That is a mathematical certainty. What is not certain is when (precise date) that will occur and what will follow. So, to that end get ready.

I would never have believed that things could have held together for as long as they have.
If they can do that, any thing is possible.
Nothing is certain.
Things may recover.

Peter this can never recover - mathematical impossibility and if it does it will represent the first recovery of this type in recorded history.
The current recovery is BS and here are 37 Reasons why !

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-09/37-reasons-why-economic-recovery-2013-giant-lie

 

[boston]

We are in the despair cycle...hold on a little longer....metals will probably trend cautiously upward in about a year....

http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/8838_silver-bubble.png


.

When I consider the graph, and have mulled over it, I cannot conclude that we are in the despair part of the cycle. In fact I think that we are in 'the bear trap' phase.

The reasoning, is that I do not believe that the 'public' has embraced silver in the mania phase yet.

Typically, going on the last silver escalations back in the 1980's, the mania phase would be all over MSM - this has not happened.

 

[silvertorrent]

One certainly gets a feeling that something is going to happen soon. The shills are out in force and everything is just wonderful as the stock market is at a new high - going higher, housing prices just peachy (all warm and fuzzy), but don't tell anyone that the 10 year note approaches 2.99%..... What CDS await us after 3% ? Yes January and February will be very interesting ? If you are waiting for the perfect moment to back up the truck on PM you surely don't understand.

All the above, I wouldn't mind the equivalent to reddit's ELI5 [explain like I'm 5] with regards to the 10 year note as my grasp of that isn't 100% :|

 

[Pirocco]

Peter this can never recover - mathematical impossibility and if it does it will represent the first recovery of this type in recorded history.
The current recovery is BS and here are 37 Reasons why !

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-09/37-reasons-why-economic-recovery-2013-giant-lie

Zerohedge is one giant mathematical lie itself. They sum up loans with overlapping terms (including even rollovers of loans, basically just term prolongation) to a grand total that they then claim as total lent/debt. They even compare daily trading volumes with silver production amounts, making quite clear how 'mathematical' they are.
Aside of this, how does one define a recovery?
Returning to a state of affairs of when?
I do agree with you about an event to occur within a relatively close time frame. But as proved over and over again: financial hay on its own doesn't destroy production and whatever alike a carpet bombardment in a war. It may just erase savings of people, and while that does have some consequences like making them dependent, inflicting them the need to produce a second time for basically the same value to buy back, this doesnt destroy economy.
boston referenced the 1980's, and that's indeed how one should look at things today. Imagine the post 1980 economical improvements based on mass application of technology like computers, networks and materials. In order to recover, the similar should happen over the next decades. The real question thus is, from current state of affairs, is it possible to set forward another such leap? As far as I'm aware of things, I doubt it, and that's why I try to evade the central planned theft along silver as storage of value. At the moment though, it's a fat loss instead. Unlike optimist though, I don't complain about it. It was my decision, my error, and in the process I learnt more in a couple years than with decades saving on a bank account. And I'll use that learned stuff to work my position towards a better one.
I wasn't around in 2008, but I bet the same discussions were done there when spot price halved from $20 to $10. There is an element that I consider a key one: the silver price has been hanging for two decades between that 1980 and 2000. Due to above improvements and the sales of stocks accumulated in the 1970's and the century before. There is now 1 year production as investment stock. Seen over a decade time span, that's reasonably low to hold the silver stack and to continue to add to it at the lower price due to the sales of others.
Aside of this, I feel an 'ohwell'. Imagine I had never bought silver and kept saving on bank account. It's quite possible that I wouldn't have bought now, since I wouldn't have learnt the stuff, and the price increase and subsequent steep fall would have scared me off, and bank accounts appear as less risky than then. In the end, that's why the silver price hangs since 8 months around the $20's isn't it? The state-supported money for nothing clubs hesitate to buy silver, and one of the lessons I learnt is that it is best to buy when they're out (sold).

 

[swoydaz]

Spot was about AUS $22.50 when you originally posted.

 

[lshallperish]

Why did you put all your eggs in one basket?

No one in their right mind does that...well...there's some Bitcoin nut-jobs that would be in your category but they're all multi-millioaires and light their cigars with 100 dollar bills.

On a serious note...I don't believe you.

H

When you take a 30 year house loan out what are you doing then? you save 50-60-70-80k and bam it's all gone what do you call that? putting your eggs in 50 baskets? lol