Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Some corrections:bubbleboy said:Pirocco said:The world stock is 70 times such an annual production.
So we can easily do a whole decade without any gold mining, it only needs 1/7 of current owners willing to sell at current price. Much like the miners have to do anyway
If that world stock was not sold during the last 15 years when gold when from under $300 to over $1900 then to under $1300 then what will it take for that 70 year world stock to be offered willingly up for sale?
According to the World Gold Council the yearly global supply is about 2500T from mines and 1000T from recycling 'we buy gold' shops. If gold falls to below $800 then the mines and gold buying shops will almost stop doing business? Rastani's analysis is very good and I believe him and all the other technical analysts, the gold price is going to $800, what's next?
- central banks sold near to 6000 tonnes during the last 15 years.
- your recycling figures aren't up to date:
Year TonnesRecycled AveragePrice
1997 631 $331
1998 1108 $294
1999 620 $279
2000 619 $279
2001 749 $271
2002 872 $310
2003 985 $363
2004 878 $410
2005 897 $445
2006 1126 $603
2007 956 $695
2008 1217 $872
2009 1672 $972
2010 1653 $1224
2011 1611.9 $1572
2012 1625.6 $1669
2013 ???? $1480
1) The mining of gold is already 2500-2600 tonnes since 1997. It was a never-changer over these 15 years.
2) The recycling of gold went up from 631 tonnes to over 1600 tonnes for the 4th consecutive year (since 2009). That's +150%
But you state here that there was no willingness by private people / speculators to sell gold. It's exactly the opposite lol. As soon as they saw the higher price, they grabbed their jewelry and ran to the melt places. Not as a 1 day geeky feeling, but since 4 years in a row.
All it took, was a higher gold price.
Your last sentence is correct though, a lower price will lower this private / speculator supply. They will wait for the price to go higher. And then the central banks will become again net sellers, as to make them wait longer.
Paper versus delivered/allocated is not true though, at least not upto last week. Because the amount futures positions on the Comex sits net at aboves 15 years period low. That means that at this price, nearly all the investment gold is available for delivery, if that option is given in the contracts (allocated ETF's) of course.
It's only futures positions that aren't allocated gold, simply because these are not todays sales, and most of the time the paper holders never intended delivery anyway.