Alessio Rastani: Gold And Silver Update | Why I Am Not Buying Silver

G

glam

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For those who don't remember, Alessio Rastani is the guy from the BBC trader interveiw where he (in)famously states ' Governments don't rule the world, Goldman Sacks rules the world'

http://forums.silverstackers.com/message-217722.html#p217722

Anyway here is his take on PM. Being as he is a trader it is purely technical analysis, so will likely be talked down by many on here, but an interesting watch anyway.

The video is here. http://www.leadingtrader.com/11/gold-and-silver-update-why-i-am-not-buying-silver/

I am sure I am going to upset a lot of Silver fans but I am not looking to buy silver right now. When it comes to Gold, I believe the upside on that metal is limited too.

As the above video will show you, Silver has been consolidating for a considerable time now. Upward pressure on silver will encounter some heavy resistance. So far Silver has managed to do a 50% retrace of its August-September decline. But it has failed to close above this level and rally to the 61.8% fibonacci level, the next level of resistance. We also need to take out resistance at the 200 moving average at $36.80.

Until Silver has managed to gather momentum and close above the key 61.8% fib level at $37.44, I would not be interested in buying Silver.

Gold enjoyed a nice trending rally after the October squeeze fired off, but now the momentum on that move appears to be diminishing. More interestingly, Gold managed to close above its 61..8% fibonacci level, and it is holding its own around some other key fibonacci clusters (see video): (1) the 100% projection of wave A and (2) the 161.8% extension of wave B.

If Gold does manage to break the 1805 highs and rally higher, it will meet resistance at the 78.6% fibonacci level at around $1840. But if it takes out the November lows, Gold could produce some interesting short opportunities.

Personally, I believe that both Gold and Silver are completing their respective C-Waves as part of the Elliott ABC wave correction. Which in human talk simply means that the upside here is limited. If Gold loses momentum and pushes lower, I would be interested to see it testing its longer term trendline at the $1500 region.
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...Until Silver has managed to gather momentum and close above the key 61.8% fib level at $37.44, I would not be interested in buying Silver...
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So, to boil this down in a nutshell (and don't misunderstand, I like Alessio, he's got big kohunas for what he did/said on BBC), but what he's really saying is "Silver isn't something I'm interested in until hit passes $37.44".

Or, to put this another way...

It's cheap now, so I'm going to wait for it to increase in price so I buy less for my fiat, and THEN go buy it.

O.o

Bugger that, buy now, cry later (as per a certain sig on these forums) :)
 
Midnight Man said:
Or, to put this another way...

It's cheap now, so I'm going to wait for it to increase in price so I buy less for my fiat, and THEN go buy it.
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He's a trader, not an investor. He has better short term opportunies then trading silver. Traders don't like having their money sitting idle :)
 
Notice how resistance levels aren't?
How many times have you seen articles that proclaim this or that broke key resistance levels.

Silver and gold are going up when people lose faith in the US economy.
It's going to be sudden and all these chart watchers are going to be caught completely off guard.
What will move gold and silver is going to be socio-political, not technical.
And these guys don't have a candlestick graph to measure future political and financial action (although some probably think they do).
Look, if QE3 was announced tomorrow, how many of these technical reports would count for nothing as the price surged up "breaking key resistance levels".

You've bought gold and silver because you are sold on the story.
So sit on it and watch your exit plan.
You do have an exit plan, right?
I mean, more than just "I'll sell when the price is high".
That's what being long is about.
 
He's a paper market trader. I wouldn't think he'd touch the physical, so his analysis is largely moot.

Even so, he's looking for capital gains in the paper market - completely different core axiom to a silver stacker.

Mind you, as a paper trader he should well know how heavily manipulated the silver market is, so the fact he has even entertained the notion of paper silver investment has me curious.
 
Scope said:
He's a trader, not an investor. He has better short term opportunies then trading silver. Traders don't like having their money sitting idle :)
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Yeah, that's a fair and good call actually.

Goes to show how a different perspective can place different emphasis on when to buy or not, eh?
 
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