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Lucky there is no such thing as inflation, which means inflation adjusted figures would need to be used to compare like with like.

Oh, wait, there were such a thing as inflation, and these graphs didn't take that into account... so the net present value (or net past value) - a.k.a. inflation adjusted value would compare like with like.

Okay - that jab aside, the graphs are somewhat compelling (because interest rates have been low and timeframes short). The building approvals is also an interesting graph. But what's it telling me? That house prices are high? Is that manageable? If not, who is at risk?

What's more important is % default and % of income going to pay debt (not %change in % of income ratio).

Increased defaults and increasing sustainability debt to income lead to the global financial meltdown, but even then only because "everyone" was exposed, were-as now just over-extended house owners and banks (and therefore super funds and many stock indexes) are affected. Not everyone, and not predictive of an economic crash.

What the final graph shows is people are building new houses... at an stable rate.... that sounds "sustainable", except for the very last "blip" which has occurred at roughly the same time every year. So again... what's the point of that graph again?

I think the housing market is a bubble, but I don't see any proof of that above.

I'd be far more focused on the effect of OPEC decision, and jobs figures due Friday then any of the figures above.
 
Australian Property - Some Warning Signals

Since mentioning The National Property Research Co.'s tweet on the definition of stupidity a couple of days ago we have looked at financial markets and the US property market.

As we discussed in today's Weekly Wrap podcast, yesterday we saw the headlines that Corelogic's latest report showed Melbourne apartment prices crashing 3.2% in November and housing down 1.5% in general as early indications of stress in the broader property bubble.

We promised to share NPR's graphs so here they are. Whilst they are largely self explanatory, on apartments NPR will be the first to point out that this does not necessarily flow through to detached residential. That said one can't rule out contagion and as Marc Hanson said "bubbles and busts don't happen in "isolation""

Yesterday we talked about affordability and these first 2 charts speak to that:

111111image1.png


111111image2.png


(note the black line is Brisbane)

On the shear amount of supply coming on.

1111111image3.png


111111image4.png


And finally the phenomenal growth in debt financed investment lending:

1111111image5.png


The big question is how all that investment debt handles increasing interest rates (courtesy of bond prices collapsing around the world and talk of central banks tightening) whilst supply is surging, rental yields contracting, and prices looking to be topping. The following chart should be at the forefront of investor's minds. It shows the staggering amount of debt held by Aussies and how low interest rates have held the real cost of interest below previous peaks. Should the aforementioned march of bond yields and expectations of central banks starting to raise rates play out, the interest on the record high debt pile could be devastating.
 
These are the types of figures that actually do speak for themselves... except "value of work done per quarter - I have no idea what this graph is measuring or trying to say. It seems to contradict the % of new approvals from yesterday unless everyone is renovating.

But ratio of median house price to average wage and % income to repayments could only be improved if the bank's data was used (i.e. the % of mortgage holder's income to the mortgage amount) so without that, this will have to do.

It does look like a bubble... and one that isn't sustainable.
 
Phil_Stacker said:
I sign up to their daily news - you can also get this from their site. I take all of their info assuming there is a "grain of truth" in it - this one was one where there were rocks.

https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/g...ault.aspx?mc_cid=d96dd95d4e&mc_eid=e87eaa5186
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I am dying to know when your daily precious metal blurb comes out so that I can slag it off daily can't wait :lol:

You certainly have an inflated opinion of yourself :/

If only I was a good as you,no forget it :rolleyes:
 
betterlatethannever said:
I am dying to know when your daily precious metal blurb comes out so that I can slag it off daily can't wait :lol:
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I say what I think and when I can be bothered. If you want to slag off everything I want, feel free. I've got nothing to lose from you saying whatever you want. If it makes others laugh then go for it, I like other people being happy even at my expense.

betterlatethannever said:
You certainly have an inflated opinion of yourself :/
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I work in finance with 5 degrees, national president of a not for profit, CEO of a national company, director on multiple boards, semi-retired at 40, home owned outright. Are you meant to be impressed? I don't care - I'm just explaining that I think a lot of myself because of my success. Success is one of those things that will inflate your ego. I'm doing all of this (silver stackers) for fun and I've got nothing to lose. How about you? If you want to take the piss - go for it, I'm happy to have a laugh at myself and I'm happy to be wrong. I know very little about Precious Metals, but I've studied economics (macro and micro), econometrics, finance, corporate finance, and government monetary and fiscal policy. So my comments are semi-informed guesses, and poking logical and theoretical holes in the spurious statements and arguments made by so called "experts" (that I don't claim to be - not in precious metals).

betterlatethannever said:
If only I was a good as you,no forget it :rolleyes:
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That's the beauty of the internet - you only have the right to be offended once, if you read anything I write again you either WANT to see my inflated opinion or you want to hear what I have to write.

Also, I'm always willing to accept that there is more than one opinion, mine and others that are obviously wrong. :lol: - not my quote.
 
By the way - you have 206 posts to zero trades. Your windbag index is infinite, mine is only 28.5... those in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.
 
Phil_Stacker said:
By the way - you have 206 posts to zero trades. Your windbag index is infinite, mine is only 28.5... those in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.
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Unlike you I am keeping my private life private :)

So why you are blowing hard I will just keep on keeping on being my 100% debt free self :cool:

Also so seeing that you double post says that you are getting way too wound up because you pride has been dented :/ with "5 degrees" with an even bigger chip on your shoulder :rolleyes: and "only" semi retired - you are a slow learner :lol:

That reminds me of a worthy saying - Australians are the most balanced people on the earth having a chip on both shoulders,I dedicate this saying to you Super Phil :)
 
Hmm.... bowing hard... you are the one that is blowning hard... err.. I mean bolded that you are 100% debt free. I have no credit card, never have and never will. Debt free is not that big a deal. Poor business practice, but good personal practice. I doubt many people on "Silver Stackers" would be buying precious metals if they ALSO have much, if any, debt (if you are - speak to a financial adviser). It was my assumption this was a site for people with excess liquidity seeking an optimal means to balance their savings portfolio.

5 degrees = failed career, failed career, failed career, failed career, finally found a degree that pays. So 4 failures really made me realise I was s#it at making life choices and decisions. Nobody "successful" does 5 degrees - look at Bill Gates, he quit college as soon as he found something successful.

So the degrees didn't put a chip on my shoulder, it took me RIGHT DOWN, down, down and then one more time down. But I'm proud to get through them, and I learnt from my mistakes.

I'm semi retired because when I retired in my 30's I got bored and now work for charities/not for profits as well as doing this sort of stuff for fun. Travel and "doing nothing" gets boring after a while. You realise retirement sucks when you've seen everything on Netflix.

I'm glad that our chats have brought you so much fun with all the :lol: and other emoticons. you can call me whatever you want but as I see you are still reading my messages I'm just glad that you find this entertaining.
 
This thread has gotten way out of hand and ridiculous. This Ainslie thread should really be more of an information only type of thread. You read it - Take it or Leave it and move on. It's Just my opinion but it should be the type of thread where people cannot leave their opinions (good or bad) because as we have seen lately there is more personal crap than Ainslie information. There are plenty of other threads regarding where the gold and silver spot price might be headed and all the technical and fundamental analysis that goes along with it - where you can leave your opinions and even get pathetically personal if you like. There are roughly 28 pages of Ainslie information where there is very little posts from anyone else. In the last four or five pages there are more posts from other members than from Ainslie and almost all of it is negating Ainslie's view or personal crap. I may be old fashioned but Ainslie are a bullion dealer and I would presume a somewhat professional outfit, while most of us here are ordinary people. What happened to old fashioned courtesy and respect for the parent, the teacher, the boss, the professional. I would never answer back when I was a kid (even if I disagreed). Why cannot this Ainslie thread be about information only, like reading a book. I would rather form my own opinion in my head and leave it there, than have to wade through everyone elses negativity and personal crap which is getting beyond a joke really. I would like to see the moderators clean up the last few pages of this thread and people just read the information provided by Ainslie, then Take it or leave it and then move on..Pleeeeeeeeeease.
 
robertc400 said:
This thread has gotten way out of hand and ridiculous. This Ainslie thread should really be more of an information only type of thread. You read it - Take it or Leave it and move on. It's Just my opinion but it should be the type of thread where people cannot leave their opinions (good or bad) because as we have seen lately there is more personal crap than Ainslie information. There are plenty of other threads regarding where the gold and silver spot price might be headed and all the technical and fundamental analysis that goes along with it - where you can leave your opinions and even get pathetically personal if you like. There are roughly 28 pages of Ainslie information where there is very little posts from anyone else. In the last four or five pages there are more posts from other members than from Ainslie and almost all of it is negating Ainslie's view or personal crap. I may be old fashioned but Ainslie are a bullion dealer and I would presume a somewhat professional outfit, while most of us here are ordinary people. What happened to old fashioned courtesy and respect for the parent, the teacher, the boss, the professional. I would never answer back when I was a kid (even if I disagreed). Why cannot this Ainslie thread be about information only, like reading a book. I would rather form my own opinion in my head and leave it there, than have to wade through everyone elses negativity and personal crap which is getting beyond a joke really. I would like to see the moderators clean up the last few pages of this thread and people just read the information provided by Ainslie, then Take it or leave it and then move on..Pleeeeeeeeeease.
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I totally agree with you that is why I came to AB's defence right or wrong :(

I apologies to Ainslie Bullion for helping to clutter up their insightful thread which I always enjoy especially the graphs which paint a thousands words.

I will limit my comments in the future to the "say thanks" button,my posting here is done :)
 
Sure. I'll move on too. I was actively promoting their good info like this week's podcast. Others were already asking questions about stuff that didn't make sense or graphs thar weren't backing up claims made. I was intending to join them and never wanted this page to get personal.

I'll stop posting on this thread given your feedback. Maybe get the moderators/admins to restrict access as Ainslie never answer any posts anyway.
 
robertc400 said:
This thread has gotten way out of hand and ridiculous. This Ainslie thread should really be more of an information only type of thread. You read it - Take it or Leave it and move on. It's Just my opinion but it should be the type of thread where people cannot leave their opinions (good or bad) ......
I may be old fashioned but Ainslie are a bullion dealer and I would presume a somewhat professional outfit, while most of us here are ordinary people. What happened to old fashioned courtesy and respect for the parent, the teacher, the boss, the professional. I would never answer back when I was a kid (even if I disagreed). Why cannot this Ainslie thread be about information only, like reading a book. I would rather form my own opinion in my head and leave it there, than have to wade through everyone elses negativity and personal crap which is getting beyond a joke really. I would like to see the moderators clean up the last few pages of this thread and people just read the information provided by Ainslie, then Take it or leave it and then move on..Pleeeeeeeeeease.
Click to expand...

Here we have a thread in which the OP clearly cherry-picks other peoples writings and data, whilst suppressing or ignoring any counter evidence, to form a narrative of such bias and truth distortion that the posts are often skewed so far as to portray falsities, with a clear and intent vested business interest.
And this amounts to an ideological "parent, the teacher, the boss, the professional."?

And furthermore, you want to censor any discussion, alternate opinion, or counter-argument!? On a discussion forum!?

WTF? Are you kidding?
I can't believe what I am reading.
Ainslie have all the opportunity in the world to respond, discuss, or substantiate their posts (as indicated in the thread topic)... but so far have chosen to just keep on posting in what has now amounted to a propagandic thread.
Has it not been lost that they are in fact posting on the member's forum, rather than the suggested "ordinary people" encroaching on their space?

I'd love to hear the mod's view regarding your request shut down any relevant discussion. :D
Under any other circumstances, this thread would be regarded as spam, but I guess sponsorship talks?

I won't be with-holding my comments. This is a discussion forum.
If you don't like reading other member's "clutter", then rather than visiting a discussion forum, you may prefer sites that serve to self-validate a bit better.... such as SeekingBrains or ZeroIdea?
 
Amen brother! ^^^ Preach it, and I for one agree. This is a forum. See below for definition. I don't think AB should get away 'scott free' without anyone challenging their presuppositions, or agreeing with them. Whatever. I hope to Jesus they don't lock this thread down JUST because AB shares their thoughts here.

forum
frm/Submit
noun
1. a place, meeting, or medium where ideas and views on a particular issue can be exchanged.
 
Amen. This is what I thought but if pointing out fact hurts the feelings of others so that they feel the need to chastise and personally attack you... what's the point? They are playing the man not the ball.

I'm not commenting on Ainslie thread any further until an administrator or moderators say it's ok.

Also, sign up to their email or read their web page it's the same info but not delivered in a peer reviewable "forum".
 
Peak Silver

We have written before about 'peak gold' and now mining analysts Thomson Reuters GFMS have presented evidence and a forecast to support that silver production peaked last year. The chart below illustrates that now with advanced estimates for 2016 showing a decline on last year to reinforce those previous forecasts.

111111Peak%20World-Silver-Production-2007-2016.png


Their latest report also had this to say:

We estimate that mine supply peaked in 2015 and will trend lower in the foreseeable future.
Declining total supply is expected to be a key driver of annual deficits in the silver market going forward.
Those deficits are courtesy of strong demand outstripping supply. Indeed we have seen deficits since 2004 and 2016 is on track to be the second biggest, beaten only in 2008 in the throes of the GFC. The chart below illustrates this. This year saw the silver price surge, up into the mid 40%'s for the year with huge inflows to ETF's accounting for 133m oz (to Sept). The correction after this may well see this number reduce but it shows the impact of a decent rally in investment silver demand.

111111Global-Silver-Net-Balance-2004-2016.png


As the graph inset states, since 2014 there is a cumulative 1.5 billion oz silver deficit. Whilst the surpluses of the 80's and 90's have ensured adequate supply to date, with declining supply, growing industrial demand and all the reasons for investing in silver alive and well, it foretells a shortage to come.
 
Italian Aftermath

Yesterday Italy resoundingly voted No in the referendum on constitutional reform. Most commentators however acknowledge this was more a vote against the status quo establishment then the question itself, as Renzi made the fatal mistake, as did David Cameron, of pegging it to his tenure as Prime Minister. And so we had another one bite the dust. Just hours ago Renzi accepted the President's request to delay his resignation until the Senate Budget Law is passed. This may not be over just yet folks

But it is the broader implications for Europe that has authorities worried although clearly not the market as it essentially shrugged off the news yesterday. Banks are a key concern and the CEO for Europe's biggest, Deutsche Bank last night said "Europe is endangered" after the Italian result. Italy's most precarious bank, Monte Paschi (MPS) dropped to the extent that trade was limit down halted and more broadly the Italian credit risk index hit a 3 year high. And yet the Dow hit a new all time high last night and Euro shares rebounded? Well the market may well just be seeing this as all the reason the ECB needs when it meets this week to extend it QE program, with a new focus on buying Italian bonds perhaps

This however could well be way beyond such short term market machinations in the now all familiar 'central banks to the rescue' narrative the market has come to rely on. This is yet another example of the populism/anti-establishment phenomena that saw Brexit and Trump and to an extent our Senate. The No vote came in a huge 5% above the polls at 59%, voter turnout was 10% higher and the No vote was stronger in the more disadvantaged regions. Sound familiar?

Italy, and indeed much of the EU, needs serious economic reform. Italy's economy has stagnated since entering the EU and its government debt risen to 133% of GDP, the second highest after Greece. The most recent poll has 48% of Italians wanting to leave the EU. Italy is the 3rd biggest economy in the EU. Should it leave, no amount of ECB bond buying will fix that. Goldman Sachs have updated their flowchart and odds on 'where to from here' now we know the result. It's a precarious situation.


11111gs%20italy.jpg%20scenarios_0.jpg
 
Shares Pumped, Gold DumpedWhat Gives?

Gold surprised a lot of people after the Italian referendum by only briefly rallying before falling more heavily. Likewise shares, even in Europe rallied after an initial fall. What gives?

We think there are a few things at play here. Moreover there appears to be a fundamental-less, self-reinforcing, everything is awesome euphoria in 'risk-on' markets that sees every event as an opportunity to buy a dip rather than see it as something structurally wrong. Italy was exactly that.

In an article in Barron's, Wall Street analyst Michael Block of Rhino Trading summed it up:

"[Apparently] the pattern of fading a potential crisis and then scrambling to cover and get long when everyone takes a breath and realizes that this time is not the apocalypse either still holds more than ever. I can't justify any of this. The lesson investors and traders are getting is that everything is a buying opportunity and you need to not miss the boat. Brexit? Bullish. Trump winning the election? Bullish. Italy saying no to the referendum and the Prime Minister handing in his resignation? Bullish. Heck, all we need is a coup d'etat in India and the entire Belgian banking system to go kablooey and the S&P 500 will be at 3,000 by Christmas Eve."

We are also starting to see a tangible disconnect again between paper and physical gold markets. The chart below shows the action on the COMEX futures exchange before and after the Italian referendum results. What you are looking at in those 2 big volume spikes down the bottom is around $4.7b in notional value of gold, or around 3m oz of paper gold, sold in a matter of hours taking the price down to a 10 month low. We won't know until the COT report this weekend but would wager it is the speculative Managed Money sector dumping gold into the clever hands of the Commercials as they chase this awesome 'Santa Rally' sharemarket.

111111comex%20gold%20post%20italy.jpg


But what is happening more broadly with demand for REAL gold is a disconnection from these paper driven prices from what is being paid for the real thing. As Bill Holter had to say yesterday:

"With just one month left in the year, Shanghai has withdrawn [generally accepted proxy for total Chinese demand] close to 2,200 tons (28 tons just this last Friday [the highest all year]). If you take Chinese and Russian supply out of the equation as they do not export, total global production of gold is roughly 2,400 tons. Shanghai/China have been purchasing nearly all global production of gold over the past several years. This does not account for Indian demand which has historically been another 1,000 tons per year or thereabouts. Nor does it account for the rest of global demand which has been brisk from Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere."

That physical demand has seen premiums paid over the spot price in China rise to their highest since April 2013 and Indian's have been paying around US$1700 amid a spot price dancing around US$1170! The 'brisk' US demand he speaks of has seen US gold eagle sales post their highest month all year in November, the 4th straight month of increases, and are now sold out.

So to recap we have US shares hitting all time highs on hope based euphoria and gold hitting 10 month lows despite rampant physical demand. Which do you think looks the better buy?

Most commentators don't give gold much chance of a recovery this calendar year, the Santa Rally phenomenon has history on its side and we still have a US rate hike in a week's time. Think of it as a Christmas sale. Q1 of 2017 is a whole other story, with many bullish about a rebound as Trump is inaugurated and reality biting as the rubber hits the road so to speak. Remember January & February this year? The key lesson is don't leave it too late

111111dinosaurs%20late.jpg
 
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