A world with $50k gold

Stoic Phoenix

Stoic Phoenix

Well-Known Member
Silver Stacker
Is this a scenario we really want?

I see two things leading to this. (are there more?)

1 - Hyperinflation......your $50k gold buys you no more or less in this scenario than it does at $1200 today (eg: Germany, Zimbabwe)

2 - Some unknown reason that causes commodities to soar whilst all else remains stable.....Who is going to have $50k to buy your 1 ounce bar/coin?

Cant see many dealers loading up at that price and in my opinion it would most definitely be a buyers market, not a sellers.
So what do you do..buy stuff with gold? you need to find someone who will take it.
I cant see a car dealer taking a 1 ounce gold coin for a car, nor can I see a seller of a property (in most cases) accepting a few gold coins.

I can not envisage a scenario where only PM's go up that astronomically and nothing else does (Some more learned readers may?)

Either way I see a world with $50k gold as a pretty chitty one to be in.
 
If gold goes to $50,000 then for simplicity lets assume you bought at $1,000 then that is a $49,000 capital gain. 50% of that you pay tax on, so that is $24,500 which is taxable at marginal rate (as if you have a few ounces it is going to push you into the top bracket) so 45% + 2% medicare levy. End result is at $50,000 you will only be left with $38,485. As long as prices of other goods don't increase more than 38 times you are OK, or if prices go up in line with gold you are worse off.
 
The responses are great but do not cover how many people have $38-50k to buy an ounce of gold IF it hits these levels?????
I see some already struggling to sell gold @ spot +1% at todays prices.....
 
What happened in the 1970s-1980 when gold went from ~$100 to ~$850 in four years?
 
willrocks said:
What happened in the 1970s-1980 when gold went from ~$100 to ~$850 in four years?
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850% (850/100) as opposed to 4160% (50000/1200) to make a fair equivalency gold would have had to go from $100 to $4160+
 
Stoic Phoenix said:
willrocks said:
What happened in the 1970s-1980 when gold went from ~$100 to ~$850 in four years?
Click to expand...

850% (850/100) as opposed to 4160% (50000/1200) to make a fair equivalency gold would have had to go from $100 to $4160+
Click to expand...

Still, there should be some evidence of consumer goods going up by ~850%? I can't find any.
 
Bear in mind, this is a silver stackers forum, so 1oz of silver may be $1,000 if gold hits$50,000. It would be possible to sell at that price.
 
sammysilver said:
Bear in mind, this is a silver stackers forum, so 1oz of silver may be $1,000 if gold hits$50,000. It would be possible to sell at that price.
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Anything is possible, hell I may walk down the street,bump into Jessica Alba and she invites me for a quickie....but is it probable?
 
bron suchecki said:
If gold goes to $50,000 then for simplicity lets assume you bought at $1,000 then that is a $49,000 capital gain. 50% of that you pay tax on, so that is $24,500 which is taxable at marginal rate (as if you have a few ounces it is going to push you into the top bracket) so 45% + 2% medicare levy. End result is at $50,000 you will only be left with $38,485. As long as prices of other goods don't increase more than 38 times you are OK, or if prices go up in line with gold you are worse off.
Click to expand...

Only if you sell in a place where capital gain on gold is enforced or otherwise you care to declare.
 
Bullion Baron said:
Not that many, but plenty who could buy 1/10-1/25oz. Do you think there is capacity for 50x as many people owning Gold as do today? What % of people do you think own physical Gold now?

Some nations have hundreds of billions/trillions in reserves. What would the price of Gold need to be in order to be less affected by flows of reserve this size into and out of Gold?
Click to expand...

Even at 1/10 with no premium there's USD $5k..........eg - Only a small percentage of current sales here exceed that amount.

50x as many people owning gold? I dont think there are enough people in the world (if we are counting jewellery as"gold", if not then yes there is a capacity but again...is it probable and could it even be realistically measured?????)

% of people own gold? again in jewellery form I would say a big whack (anyone got figures?), in bullion form a lot lot less.

Your last question I have no idea...
 
bron suchecki said:
If gold goes to $50,000 then for simplicity lets assume you bought at $1,000 then that is a $49,000 capital gain. 50% of that you pay tax on, so that is $24,500 which is taxable at marginal rate (as if you have a few ounces it is going to push you into the top bracket) so 45% + 2% medicare levy. End result is at $50,000 you will only be left with $38,485. As long as prices of other goods don't increase more than 38 times you are OK, or if prices go up in line with gold you are worse off.
Click to expand...

Also if you were to move to New Zealand (or another country that does not have CGT), there may be no tax owing* (*seek professional advice).
 
Gold goes to 50k and all the gold miners turning a $400 profit @$1,600 an oz go bust all of a sudden?
Dunno, highly doubt it.

If it's 50k it's 50k.

Worst case scenario, Y'all be going along to your local shopping centre selling your ounce for 45k, you know you're getting dicked but your ounce will sell.

Bought my house for $112,000, got rolled, looked like it was worth 70k tops but paid it anyway. House now looks like 30k and agents saying they'll get 10x what I paid for it. Yeah I realise percentage wise it's nowhere near gold somehow (and won't) hitting 50k an oz, but if the shit is actually only $300 but it's selling for 50k, people will buy. Besides, what's a lazy 50k to someone already paying $1M on a piece of crap property they already can't afford.

Not sure why anyone holding gold is worried about 50k gold, take an absolute super sonic rise (practically overnight) or I'm tipping most would pull the trigger and sell at what $1700? (shiney) $3k, 5k, 10k, take some fairly massive balls to hold out for 50k.

People spent $50 an ounce on silver. Stupid, or super duper long term investors.

Humans by nature are individually reasonably intelligent, but as a whole, we're a little bit retarded.

Don't over think things, have faith that we do stupid shit .... like paying 50k an oz.
 
bron suchecki said:
If gold goes to $50,000 then for simplicity lets assume you bought at $1,000 then that is a $49,000 capital gain. 50% of that you pay tax on, so that is $24,500 which is taxable at marginal rate (as if you have a few ounces it is going to push you into the top bracket) so 45% + 2% medicare levy. End result is at $50,000 you will only be left with $38,485. As long as prices of other goods don't increase more than 38 times you are OK, or if prices go up in line with gold you are worse off.
Click to expand...

excellent - well done Sherlock...
 
you can check the gold prices in many countries eg Indo, Thai, Philipinas etc

their prices are all in the thousands :)

it is rather hard to find a diamond seller when you do not have many figures to start with in the pocket, how does one pay for those expensive diamond anyway??

its a strange world out here.
 
Stoic Phoenix said:
The responses are great but do not cover how many people have $38-50k to buy an ounce of gold IF it hits these levels?????
I see some already struggling to sell gold @ spot +1% at todays prices.....
Click to expand...



I certainly don't have anywhere near than kind of money but I believe it doesn't work that way anyway...at least for investors and speculators.....they don't care what the price is, so long as they are convinced that they can make some profit on buying then selling that product.

So, many investors and speculators might/would pay US$900,000 for an ounce of gold if they were convinced that they could sell it and make a profit. Sell to whom? To other investors and speculators who believe the same thing. It goes on and on and on until a group of Johnny-come-lately investors and speculators buy the product but get caught holding the commodity/asset because they are the least informed of all the investors and speculators (last to the dinner table) and there's no one left to flip it to for a profit.

I'm sure this has happened countless times (assuming that the cycle is similar for virtually every type of commodity/asset....and only the time frame varies).


Bottom line, paying $50,000 for an ounce of gold may be a great investment....but if you get fooled, get bad advice, and if you snooze you lose.



.
 
Well to reach 50k it will need buyers/demand, The buyers might consist of jewellers, governments, rich folk etc. If there are no buyers the price will not reach that point. !kg of gold is around 50k and people are buying that in 1 piece.

I'm not sure if you are talking about the potential lack of buying/selling activity here on this forum or if you are asking whether it will be hard to liquidate anywhere if the price reaches that point.

The day that gold and silver stop selling on this forum will be the day we are waiting for.
 
bron suchecki said:
If gold goes to $50,000 then for simplicity lets assume you bought at $1,000 then that is a $49,000 capital gain. 50% of that you pay tax on, so that is $24,500 which is taxable at marginal rate (as if you have a few ounces it is going to push you into the top bracket) so 45% + 2% medicare levy. End result is at $50,000 you will only be left with $38,485. As long as prices of other goods don't increase more than 38 times you are OK, or if prices go up in line with gold you are worse off.
Click to expand...

So Bron you suggest that gold falls then gold holders can get a capital gains rebate and make some real money. :D

Clearly if gold goes to $50,000, I cant see Abbot and Costello or Turnbull and Shorten in any position of authority and the ATO will be that pile of smouldering ash in the corner. The last thing that we will need to worry about is CGT.
 
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