A Reliable Sign When Silver Spot Peaks

Hopefully by Thanksgiving, silver spot can reach US$13.5 area; plus the holiday special on premium reduction, the physical price would be a good deal :lol:
 
With the speed that spot is dropping, I expect premiums to only rise so soaking up the SP drop. Dealers won't take a haircut on stock purchased at $15.50.

The big question will be if the SP will stabilise in the near-term prior to the Dec rate decision by FOMC. If we drop to the $14.50 support line and they raise, the resulting fall could send spot well into the $13's in one drop.
 
Agree, if you can find a special price which has a premium reduction of more than one dollar; you're already buying as if silver spot at $13's. :D

Monsta said:
With the speed that spot is dropping, I expect premiums to only rise so soaking up the SP drop. Dealers won't take a haircut on stock purchased at $15.50.

The big question will be if the SP will stabilise in the near-term prior to the Dec rate decision by FOMC. If we drop to the $14.50 support line and they raise, the resulting fall could send spot well into the $13's in one drop.
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Smackdown after Smackdown after Smackdown after Smackdown ..........................................................

I hope diehard bulls learned their lesson; USD is trending up and to the moon. :P
 
leon1998 said:
Smackdown after Smackdown after Smackdown after Smackdown ..........................................................

I hope diehard bulls learned their lesson; USD is trending up and to the moon. :P
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USD is never going to go to the moon with that monumental debt hanging off it
 
Skyrocket said:
leon1998 said:
Smackdown after Smackdown after Smackdown after Smackdown ..........................................................

I hope diehard bulls learned their lesson; USD is trending up and to the moon. :P
Click to expand...


USD is never going to go to the moon with that monumental debt hanging off it
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With other currencies being flushed down the toilet, the USD doesn't need to propel itself to the moon.
 
I have stopped buying at this point, the indicators are all still negative in a big way. Next stop is ~$13.94 on my reading.

Some commentators are saying the gold/silver is now short-term oversold and the prices should come back a bit. The issue with that is there is no serious price resistance being put up. We have now had two falling COMEX closes below the previous main support line of ~$14.50 so read into that what you will, but I am calling that line of support broken.

In late COMEX trade the price started to swing up and it would have challenged the previous day's close. Instead it flattened and went sideways which seems to indicate there is no respite just yet, but it does look like the drop is slowing.
 
How was this fantastic indicator? :P 100% reliable :lol:

leon1998 said:
Today, one of my most reliable indicator lights up: APMEX 90% Junk Silver Special.

Almost every time this happened, Silver took a deep dive for weeks to come. Signal reliability is as high as 100%; I have never seen it failed before. :P
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Monsta said:
With the speed that spot is dropping, I expect premiums to only rise so soaking up the SP drop. Dealers won't take a haircut on stock purchased at $15.50.

The big question will be if the SP will stabilise in the near-term prior to the Dec rate decision by FOMC. If we drop to the $14.50 support line and they raise, the resulting fall could send spot well into the $13's in one drop.
Click to expand...
Why would dealers take a haircut on stock purchased? They took futures positions to hedge it, and this inflicts the customers after the stock replenishment a higher forward component in the spot price when buying from the dealers. A temp higher premium is only a cherish attempt on their intended cake.
 
Pirocco said:
Monsta said:
With the speed that spot is dropping, I expect premiums to only rise so soaking up the SP drop. Dealers won't take a haircut on stock purchased at $15.50.

The big question will be if the SP will stabilise in the near-term prior to the Dec rate decision by FOMC. If we drop to the $14.50 support line and they raise, the resulting fall could send spot well into the $13's in one drop.
Click to expand...
Why would dealers take a haircut on stock purchased? They took futures positions to hedge it, and this inflicts the customers after the stock replenishment a higher forward component in the spot price when buying from the dealers. A temp higher premium is only a cherish attempt on their intended cake.
Click to expand...


I know several coin dealers and their concern is not with the price they paid on bullion they sell, but on the replacement cost of said bullion after it is sold. This applies to BULLION and not numi or semi numi coins, which have a completely different market and are not often as easily replaced as generic bullion and gov minted bullion. The premiums they sell the bullion for are based on the premiums they pay the wholesaler. As the saying goes, "$h!t rolls downhill", that is why retail buyers are the ones who eat the higher premiums.

The dealers I know don't hedge via futures. Instead, they only keep "just enough" physical bullion in the store at any time. If price drops fast they order new metal at the new lower price to replace what they will sell that day at the new low prices. My local stores don't remove inventory when prices drop (with the exception of pre 33 US gold- I have seen this firsthand).


Jim
 
monopolize said:
Silverpv said:
This is pretty bad...
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This is good.. just depends on the way you look at it.
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Bad for investors. Good for hoarders... lol. I never really understood why stackers enjoy the ride down.. sideways and up yah ok. I mean, once you have a lot of gold it does nothing. It's lazy and looks pretty until you put it to work!
 
Silverpv said:
Bad for investors. Good for hoarders... lol. I never really understood why stackers enjoy the ride down.. sideways and up yah ok. I mean, once you have a lot of gold it does nothing. It's lazy and looks pretty until you put it to work!
Click to expand...

There are things I want to buy. So down is good.
 
Down is awesome as long as it's not down for the duration of our lifetimes or if the wife happens to work out how much I spend on silver.
 
Pirocco said:
Why would dealers take a haircut on stock purchased? They took futures positions to hedge it, and this inflicts the customers after the stock replenishment a higher forward component in the spot price when buying from the dealers.
Click to expand...

Assuming the dealers are big enough to hedge. For the likes of APMEX and JM Bullion, that is probably true. I'd think ABC Bullion & Perth Mint here in Australia does the same, but not your average dealer.

That said the smaller ones do not, they wait until the price stabilises for a bit before buying. It's about replacement cost. BiGs would tell you the same thing.

Pirocco said:
A temp higher premium is only a cherish attempt on their intended cake.
Click to expand...

Assuming they have the working capital to be able to hedge.

Jim4silver said:
I know several coin dealers and their concern is not with the price they paid on bullion they sell, but on the replacement cost of said bullion after it is sold. This applies to BULLION and not numi or semi numi coins, which have a completely different market and are not often as easily replaced as generic bullion and gov minted bullion. The premiums they sell the bullion for are based on the premiums they pay the wholesaler. As the saying goes, "$h!t rolls downhill", that is why retail buyers are the ones who eat the higher premiums.

The dealers I know don't hedge via futures. Instead, they only keep "just enough" physical bullion in the store at any time. If price drops fast they order new metal at the new lower price to replace what they will sell that day at the new low prices. My local stores don't remove inventory when prices drop (with the exception of pre 33 US gold- I have seen this firsthand).
Click to expand...

Jim gets it. Dealers don't buy stock into falling markets.
 
I think it's you that don't get it Monsta. Speak to GS PB Ainslie and ask if they hedge. Ask BIGS if he hedges.
 
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