A Reliable Sign When Silver Spot Peaks

Hey guys, first post here. Without some pictures the speculation is useless.

So- here is attached.

One scenario suggesting ~12.00 I've got a much older one that puts it around $7, but that seems too low in regards to inflation now vs inflation then.

About 4 scenarios putting $16 as the top until we push mid $13's. That's invalidated if spot can close a day above $16.10. If so I'd expect it to push towards $17 and a half or so

dLJeENr.png


look forward to chatting :)
 
Not sure how to edit, or if I can.

The idea is simple Fibonacci harmonics. AB will sometimes see a retrace of ~50%, then reverse and complete the same length leg (CD)

If there's a way to edit posts someone inform me.
 
I love technical analysis. If it goes up it's going to go up more and if it goes down it's going to go down more. One can't really be wrong then can they.

I remember reading a book that said people who claim to be able to predict what's going to happen do one of 3 things:

A) Make a lot of different calls. Some of them will be right.

B) Make just one call. It'll eventually be right.

C) Make a vague call that can be interpreted either way.

There might have been a 4th but can't remember what it was.
 
I analyse Nostradamus' quatrains on gold etc. in order to show there is more than just interest that had him include them. They are integral to a time of chaos and to the environments which foster turmoil.

I will show how Nostradamus uses key code-words in his text and anagrams in order that the judgement of the reader may be set to the right story-line. This is done by allusion and ancient techniques for giving properties instead of names and vice-versa.

I want my analysis to be as complete as possible showing the number of identical and different events, their location, their origin, the people involved and to give the most accurate dating possible while recognising the limitations a definable prediction enforces.

The stories inevitably involve corporations, corruption, fraud and new financial methods. These can be seen throughout this page with their inclusion validated and reinforced by their rarity, appropriateness, relevance to Nostradamus' text and the adjacency of supportive concepts and language

http://www.nostradamusdecoded.com/nostradamus_on_gold.htm


Alas, how we will see a great nation sorely tormented
and the holy law in utter ruin
All of Christianity under the laws of others
when a new source of gold and silver is discovered
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That Dragon Family has more work to do then!

:P
 
C.8 Q.28

The copies of gold and silver inflated,
which after the theft were thrown into the lake,
at the discovery that all is exhausted and dissipated
All scrips and bonds will be wiped out.

C.9 Q.12

So much silver of Diana and Mercury,
The images will be found in the lake:
The sculptor looking for new clay
He and his followers will be steeped in gold.

From the narrative in these quatrains it seems reasonable to deduce that the plates used to produce the documents issued to the owners of the false bullion ingots are dumped in a lake only to be discovered by a sculptor seeking for a source of a unique clay. It is this discovery that brings upon a financial crisis of confidence. There is then a complete collapse in the value of bonds and other paper instruments while the price of genuine gold and silver soars.

http://www.nostradamusdecoded.com/nostradamus_on_gold.htm#Gold, Silver and the Corporate Antichrist
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monopolize said:
I love technical analysis. If it goes up it's going to go up more and if it goes down it's going to go down more. One can't really be wrong then can they.

I remember reading a book that said people who claim to be able to predict what's going to happen do one of 3 things:

A) Make a lot of different calls. Some of them will be right.

B) Make just one call. It'll eventually be right.

C) Make a vague call that can be interpreted either way.

There might have been a 4th but can't remember what it was.
Click to expand...

D) claim that something happened in the past went exactly as you had predicted earlier. You don't even have to make calls in advance and your accuracy rate will always be 100%
 
Silver spot has reached the upper bound of a major downtrend channel; which is about us$16. The first breakout try failed as expected; and Silver futures report last week saw massive short position buildup by Commercial Traders/Banksters. Depending on how large speculators act, silver might try us$16 again; but odds are not favoring a breakout. :P
 
leon1998 said:
Silver spot has reached the upper bound of a major downtrend channel; which is about us$16. The first breakout try failed as expected; and Silver futures report last week saw massive short position buildup by Commercial Traders/Banksters. Depending on how large speculators act, silver might try us$16 again; but odds are not favoring a breakout. :P
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Yah I noticed it didn't breakout either, but i think the manufacturing issues will insulate some of the physical price temporarily, how long, I'm not sure. I'm currently selling my middle premium gov't issue coins where the premiums have grown to prep for the drop in price, should it happen, if manufacturing catches up with the lower spot. Also converting some to fractional graded gold, which will hopefully insulate a major drop in spot but trying to pick up deals.
 
Silverpv said:
Yah I noticed it didn't breakout either, but i think the manufacturing issues will insulate some of the physical price temporarily, how long, I'm not sure.
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I think you are absolutely right here, premiums are simply still too high. It's all going to happen once some of the cheaper metal comes through the stocks of the mints, but with premiums so high right now it is hard to imagine that there will be anything other than reluctance by the mints to sell cheaper product while the demand is strong. And until that cheaper product is in the hands of the dealers then it's all moot.

Demand (and thus premiums) are starting to drop in the US, but it's going to be a while until we see the flow through locally. I note that a couple of the smaller dealers are out of stock of the lowest premium silver they have - e.g. 11th Round has no generic rounds at all and no ASEs and only a few tubes of Maples left. BullionList is out of maples completely and is selling generic NTR Buffies at higher prices than Noah's Arks!

I don't think dealers will be stocking until there is a market movement (most likely down, or a breakout upwards occurs). They do not want to be stuck with higher cost stock.

Silverpv said:
I'm currently selling my middle premium gov't issue coins where the premiums have grown to prep for the drop in price, should it happen, if manufacturing catches up with the lower spot. Also converting some to fractional graded gold, which will hopefully insulate a major drop in spot but trying to pick up deals.
Click to expand...

I like what you are doing and I hope your strategy pays off for you. I have reduced my purchase volumes and am accumulating only the lowest premium metal I can get my hands on. Generic rounds, RCM/OPM 10oz bars, kilobars and picking up the odd couple of ounces of unallocated when the price drops in the evenings so I can convert to physical. Conversely, I am also adding into local Allocated Gold with a clear FOC withdrawal right which I have tested (and inspected) previously.
 
Monsta said:
I think you are absolutely right here, premiums are simply still too high. It's all going to happen once some of the cheaper metal comes through the stocks of the mints, but with premiums so high right now it is hard to imagine that there will be anything other than reluctance by the mints to sell cheaper product while the demand is strong. And until that cheaper product is in the hands of the dealers then it's all moot.

Demand (and thus premiums) are starting to drop in the US, but it's going to be a while until we see the flow through locally. I note that a couple of the smaller dealers are out of stock of the lowest premium silver they have - e.g. 11th Round has no generic rounds at all and no ASEs and only a few tubes of Maples left. BullionList is out of maples completely and is selling generic NTR Buffies at higher prices than Noah's Arks!
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I think this is the main thing. Demand is down because the holiday season is starting up, many are saving to spend on sales. So there's this weird limbo right now. If deals come out, there's money to buy. IF they come out or like you said IF it spikes higher. I think people are waiting for deals. THe premiums have done their duty and controlled buying to acceptable levels. I'm not sure if this has ever happened before. Any long timers have history/experience with this scenario? I'm admittedly green when it comes to long-term experience.

Monsta said:
I like what you are doing and I hope your strategy pays off for you. I have reduced my purchase volumes and am accumulating only the lowest premium metal I can get my hands on. Generic rounds, RCM/OPM 10oz bars, kilobars and picking up the odd couple of ounces of unallocated when the price drops in the evenings so I can convert to physical. Conversely, I am also adding into local Allocated Gold with a clear FOC withdrawal right which I have tested (and inspected) previously.
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Interesting. I've never used unallocated or allocated. I'll have to check it out. Cheers!
 
leon1998 said:
Today, one of my most reliable indicator lights up: APMEX 90% Junk Silver Special.

Almost every time this happened, Silver took a deep dive for weeks to come. Signal reliability is as high as 100%; I have never seen it failed before. :P
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I think Leon's short term calls are more accurate than any other posters here. And he does it without name-calling and arguing with all who disagree.

Jim
 
Silverpv said:
I think this is the main thing. Demand is down because the holiday season is starting up, many are saving to spend on sales. So there's this weird limbo right now. If deals come out, there's money to buy. IF they come out or like you said IF it spikes higher. I think people are waiting for deals. THe premiums have done their duty and controlled buying to acceptable levels. I'm not sure if this has ever happened before. Any long timers have history/experience with this scenario? I'm admittedly green when it comes to long-term experience.
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The market is waiting for a signal. I'd hate to be a dealer right now and have stocks running down while the market goes sideways. The default trend is down at this point in time, no matter that we are up higher than a month ago and the AUD has added a couple of cents to reduce the spot rise. That just keeps them even more nervous and will stop them ordering.

I think you are right on the money regarding premiums, but we only ever got to that point as spot dropped triggering retail demand for bullion. Added to the mix was the fact that the mints were coming around to the end of their cycles - Perth only had remaining stock of 2015 Kookas for example and were gearing up for the 2016 release and they pretty much sold out prior to the stock hitting the market. Retail market got the wobbles and then bought up whatever they could - 10oz and kilobars mainly.

Premiums have finally quelled the demand as you point out, but we also now have good stocks of the 2016 Kookas to placate the market. There are still a number of local dealers with no or very low stock in some international bullion, and that will remain until there is a price signal - either a reasonable breakout or something like a heavy drop back to USD$15 or below. In the meantime, Kookas are good buying for us here in Australia as they are priced well under Maples and ASEs.

In the US, there are much more reasonable premiums across the board as the retail market cools and new stock flows into the market. We really need some international stock with lower premiums to entice people into buying.

Silverpv said:
Interesting. I've never used unallocated or allocated. I'll have to check it out. Cheers!
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It's just that you can grab ounces in the lower dips of the day - usually in the evenings here in Australia. Last night's big drop happened later than usual. My trigger is to watch for a 15c drop in AUD terms and then confirm my unallocated account has had the same drop, then strike. Every little bit counts - you still need to pay your redemption premium but if the ounces cost you less than the current spot price at redemption then it's a good way to buy.
 
Today's silver weekly futures report showed that commercials/Banksters kept increasing short position and reducing long position. The short/long ratio has hit 2.5:1

Smackdown scheduled next week :P
 
leon1998 said:
Today's silver weekly futures report showed that commercials/Banksters kept increasing short position and reducing long position. The short/long ratio has hit 2.5:1

Smackdown scheduled next week :P
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I hope it is a big smackdown. There's a couple of things I have my eye on. :)
 
Yes, that price jump overnight signalled it for next week. The first serious jump into 22/16 territory - in USD it held for 2 hours before they came in and squished it.

AUD dropping 4/10th's of a cent at the same time meant our fall was rather less. Damn.
 
Smackdown is a sudden price drop within an hour or even less.

If you think it is still higher than 24 hours ago; how about 2 years :lol:

monopolize said:
Ah how is it a smackdown when it's still higher than what it was 24 hours ago.
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