A POINTLESS EXERECISE

[Yippe-Ki-Ya]

1 Year = $65 AUD
3 Year = $130 AUD
5 Year = $30 AUD

Would love to hear your explanation for what goes down in 5 years time
Perhaps the 2.5 billion Chinese and Indian population will realise the error of their ways of returning to real money and decide that fiat is the way to go after all!

 

[goldpanner]

Well if all that works out according to what people think then silver is a good investment - no one has gone below $30 so if you can buy at $30 you cant go wrong!

Me - I say $39 end of year
$49 second year
$250 five years (dollar will not be worh much by then!)

 

[Naphthalene Man]

While i agree with them, these conservative prices are ruining my dream!

 

[Rinchin]

1 year $65
3 years $120 Spot $250 Physical
5 years "Spot" No longer available ?? Yuan Physical

I'm not a pessimist the world will be fine just not the USA

 

[thatguy]

1 year $65
3 years $120 Spot $250 Physical
5 years "Spot" No longer available ?? Yuan Physical

I'm not a pessimist the world will be fine just not the USA

There is a huge difference between a corrupt police force and no police force. I have no love loss for the US, BUT sadly the coming demise of the US will bode well for no one not even its largest detractors

 

[Butch]

There's an old saying in financial circles "you can't beat the FED" Its this little magot that riggles around in my head and says to me how will they get around the currency issues?
Qe3 is just arround the corner. I dont see $50 by Christmas.

 

[PrettyPrettyShinyShiny]

While i agree with them, these conservative prices are ruining my dream!

I think our 'dreams' will all be readjusted pretty soon.. I'd be happy to be dreaming of food on the table and a roof over my head compared to the reality that many people will face.

I'm kinda just happy I have ANY silver. The weight is reassuring and it most definitely will be once the train has derailed.

 

[fishball]

So (if you can be arsed my silver chums), purely as an exercise, what do you reckon silver prices (in USD) will be in 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years?

My guesses...(bullish guesses!)

1 year:

P(0.6) = $75
P(0.2) = $40
P(0.1) = $20
P(0.1) = $10

Expected value = $56

3 years:

P(0.5) = $100
P(0.3) = $70
P(0.1) = $50
P(0.1) = $30

Expected value = $79

5 years:

P(0.8) = $120
P(0.1) = $75
P(0.1) = $50

Expected value = $108.5

Hmm...came out more conservative than I believed I was

 

[Jislizard]

1 Year = $36 AUD
3 Year = $39 AUD
5 Year = $41 AUD

A nice conservative rise, if it keeps pace with inflation I will consider it worthwhile.

lol

Two slight problems with that.
1. The current price of silver is nowhere near its realistic value - the 'accounting' for all the fiat in existance today must (and will) still occur...
2. I believe you underestimate the real rate of inflation. The official inflation rate is a joke

Welcome back Yippe-Ki-Ya, do you mind if I call you Yippe?

1, the realistic value is not what I can expect to sell the silver for unless the accounting actually takes place in the next 3-5 years, here's hoping....
2, I probably do, I used the RBA Inflation Calculator and used the last five years to do the sums, with a bit of rounding up.

I expect the spot price to peak and plumment either side of those values but maybe just 10-15 dollars either side

 

[pixha]

Would be interested to see peoples expected GSR along with their USD figures...

 

[Rocksteady]

1 year : $30 USD /oz
$25 AUD/ oz

3 year : $70 USD / oz
$50 AUD / oz

5 years : $200 USD / oz
$90 AUD /oz

All this guessing makes me feel like an economist.

 

[capt.sparrow]

At what point does spot price become obsolete for physical? If premiums continue to raise for physical eventually the gap will become too large. They'll either have to stop issuing paper silver altogether or create a physical price and paper price at which point sheeple will realize the difference between the two and choose physical. Either way paper is on the way out!

I agree with you. However i dont agree that after 5 years the price will come crashing down to today's levels. There just is not sufficient silver supply to enable this outcome

 

[capt.sparrow]

There's an old saying in financial circles "you can't beat the FED" Its this little magot that riggles around in my head and says to me how will they get around the currency issues?
Qe3 is just arround the corner. I dont see $50 by Christmas.

The US will go to war before the dollar collapses.

 

[capt.sparrow]

1 year $65
3 years $120 Spot $250 Physical
5 years "Spot" No longer available ?? Yuan Physical

I'm not a pessimist the world will be fine just not the USA

There is a huge difference between a corrupt police force and no police force. I have no love loss for the US, BUT sadly the coming demise of the US will bode well for no one not even its largest detractors

If the demise of the US/British empire means an end to the power of the elitist robber barons then it will bring more good than bad

 

[THUCYDIDES79]

1 year $65
3 years $120 Spot $250 Physical
5 years "Spot" No longer available ?? Yuan Physical

I'm not a pessimist the world will be fine just not the USA

There is a huge difference between a corrupt police force and no police force. I have no love loss for the US, BUT sadly the coming demise of the US will bode well for no one not even its largest detractors

If the demise of the US/British empire means an end to the power of the elitist robber barons then it will bring more good than bad

when they are brought down the new Elite will be worse than them.
whoever replaces the current Hegemon will be worse for mankind.
it doesnt get better, it gets worse.

 

[Rinchin]

1 year $65
3 years $120 Spot $250 Physical
5 years "Spot" No longer available ?? Yuan Physical

I'm not a pessimist the world will be fine just not the USA

There is a huge difference between a corrupt police force and no police force. I have no love loss for the US, BUT sadly the coming demise of the US will bode well for no one not even its largest detractors

If the demise of the US/British empire means an end to the power of the elitist robber barons then it will bring more good than bad

I agree. I feel we little people will always be slave class to the current ruling elite. However the natural cycle of rule places us in the Australia/NZ part of the world better than most.

Our economies are currently heavily driven by Asian demand, we might effectively become China's outsourced miners and farmers. But as the next New World Order comes to grips with their newly acquired power there is much work to do before they need to bother us. As long as we keep sending the raw products I think we will be fine within our lifetime.

 

[Yippe-Ki-Ya]

1 Year = $36 AUD
3 Year = $39 AUD
5 Year = $41 AUD

A nice conservative rise, if it keeps pace with inflation I will consider it worthwhile.

lol

Two slight problems with that.
1. The current price of silver is nowhere near its realistic value - the 'accounting' for all the fiat in existance today must (and will) still occur...
2. I believe you underestimate the real rate of inflation. The official inflation rate is a joke

Welcome back Yippe-Ki-Ya, do you mind if I call you Yippe?

Thanks mate and yeh - thats what everybody calls me. either Yippe/Yippee/YKY
take your pick

1, the realistic value is not what I can expect to sell the silver for unless the accounting actually takes place in the next 3-5 years, here's hoping....
2, I probably do, I used the RBA Inflation Calculator and used the last five years to do the sums, with a bit of rounding up.

I expect the spot price to peak and plumment either side of those values but maybe just 10-15 dollars either side

As regards point 1, i believe with the looming physical silver shortage a forced accounting will take place, whether central bankers and other bankers like it or not

 

[Nukz]

1 year $40-42
3 years $8 or $112($8 if China has a collapse and industrial demand dies, $112 if that hasn't happened by then)
5 years $7-10

 

[grinners]

1 year $40-42
3 years $8 or $112($8 if China has a collapse and industrial demand dies, $112 if that hasn't happened by then)
5 years $7-10

So silver at 1/10th the price (inflation adjusted) or less of todays value in 5 years time?

 

[Nukz]

1 year $40-42
3 years $8 or $112($8 if China has a collapse and industrial demand dies, $112 if that hasn't happened by then)
5 years $7-10

So silver at 1/10th the price (inflation adjusted) or less of todays value in 5 years time?

I believe we will be using Yuan possibly gold backed currency by then or SDR's as a new currency. You could also go down the road of the U.S fixing its problems somewhat in this timeframe not sure how this would happen right now though.