A case for the Bulls or the Bears.

[markcoinoz]

Interesting times.
Below, are 4 Historical Charts of the S&P in each chart which provides a certain amount of correlation to our current S&P chart in (Red). The highest correlation is 91% to the 2008 Financial crisis, with the lowest being 1973 at 85%.

I have included a Poll and would like your opinion on which one is likely to play out.

In the Poll, I have chosen 1) as I still remain optimistic that the FED will cave in to the damage caused by interest rate increases, sooner rather than later, irrespective what Powell says.

What is your view?

Please vote.

 

[markcoinoz]

Forgot the Chart.

 

[JohnnyBravo300]

I couldnt guess about the charts but they cant stop the inflation so a pivot will come eventually for sure. Who knows when.
It all depends how long they want to keep the tourniquet on and how much pain they want to inflict.
They could fight inflation for years, long enough for most to lose everything and then pivot but i hope not.

Id have to say its somewhat different this time and their tools are broken so its anyones guess.
There comes a time when the only option is to print or introduce a new currency and we are quickly reaching it.

 

[heartastack]

They could fight inflation for years

Yep, I intend to see you all here in another 10 years so we can reflect on the next load of bullshit about how nobody could believe that the economy just wouldn't die - that Peter Schiff is still right, Gerald Celente is still angry on his death bed and Kiyosaki still believes silver is cheaper than ever, etc etc... The last 10 has been just that as well with the opposite backdrop of excess liquidity. 'End game' mentality has been the least fruitful, so far.

 

[JohnnyBravo300]

Whatever happens with the s&p, Europe had better familiarize themselves with the Russian natl anthem.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

Bull here, 5.

I'm not sure finding an historical chart to match what may play out hence my vote.

The Fed will keep raising rates, inflation will fall at some point next year, liquidity will return to the market including QE4 and fiscal measures and asset prices will rise again.

There you go

 

[heartastack]

 

[mmm....shiney!]

^ the future doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes.

 

[Eureka Moments]

Previous outcomes are no guarantee of future performance.

My Super fund told me

 

[barneyrubble]

 

[Davros10]

Previous outcomes are no guarantee of future performance.

My Super fund told me

Whilst advertising why you should join them based on past performance?

 

[Eureka Moments]

Whilst advertising why you should join them based on past performance?

Silver went up in 2010 and 2011

 

[mmm....shiney!]

https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/it-will-be-enough#details

The Fed tightening longer than expected, Powell going full Volcker but not going to repeat his mistake by reducing rates too early, gold gets a brief mention, risk averse around equities and @lucky luke he is short Euro v USD and long Yen v Oz and Looney, that may help to answer the question you had elsewhere. So commodity currencies are expected to under perform.

 

[heartastack]

https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/it-will-be-enough#details

The Fed tightening longer than expected, Powell going full Volcker but not going to repeat his mistake by reducing rates too early, gold gets a brief mention, risk averse around equities and @lucky luke he is short Euro v USD and long Yen v Oz and Looney, that may help to answer the question you had elsewhere. So commodity currencies are expected to under perform.

Haha, soon the rhetoric will be that the fed 'never wants to see a booming economy' instead of 'helicopter money and hyperinflation is a sure thing'.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

^ isn't that already a "thing" in some circles?

 

[Michael Kay]

https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/it-will-be-enough#details

The Fed tightening longer than expected, Powell going full Volcker but not going to repeat his mistake by reducing rates too early, gold gets a brief mention, risk averse around equities and @lucky luke he is short Euro v USD and long Yen v Oz and Looney, that may help to answer the question you had elsewhere. So commodity currencies are expected to under perform.

Full Volcker? Volcker raised rates from 11.2% all the way up to 20%! A retarded 3.5% is not "full Volker" LOL. No comparison.

 

[JohnnyBravo300]

Hes already gone full retard.
Never.... go full retard.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

Full Volcker? Volcker raised rates from 11.2% all the way up to 20%! A retarded 3.5% is not "full Volker" LOL. No comparison.

Of course it's an accurate comparison and it's way beyond Volcker.

Inflation is nowhere near what it was under Volcker. Powell is going to ensure that he uses rates to crush inflationary pressure but unlike Volcker he's not going to make the mistake of reducing them too early. 11.2% to 20% is not even 2X the initial rate, Powell has gone from 0.25% to 3.25% in under 2 years. That's an increase in the order of 12X !!!!!!

 

[Michael Kay]

Of course it's an accurate comparison and it's way beyond Volcker.

Inflation is nowhere near what it was under Volcker. Powell is going to ensure that he uses rates to crush inflationary pressure but unlike Volcker he's not going to make the mistake of reducing them too early. 11.2% to 20% is not even 2X the initial rate, Powell has gone from 0.25% to 3.25% in under 2 years. That's an increase in the order of 12X !!!!!!

this is a perfect example of why statistics are bullshit. The whole system is built on fudged numbers and the Fed put, the confidence trick.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

^ so you're suggesting that the "Fed Put" is a fantasy?

Anyway, I'll stick to the stats available when I come to making my financial decisions, whether they're accurate or not they're what guide the actions and decision-making process of our central planners.