.

[wrcmad]

Bron, James Turk addresses the metal shortage beginning at about 2.05 min _ Comex at record lows.

COMEX inventory is irrelevant, so it addresses nothing, but exposes Turk's state of fiction.

Irrelevant in your opinion.

I've been asking for others to explain to me the relevance of Comex inventory for days.
Feel free to share, because all I'm getting is...... {crickets}

 

[wrcmad]

Bron, James Turk addresses the metal shortage beginning at about 2.05 min _ Comex at record lows.

COMEX inventory is irrelevant, so it addresses nothing, but exposes Turk's state of fiction.

. Is backwardation also fiction

No.
Why do you ask?

 

[barsenault]

let's face it people, there is no shortage of silver. period, end of story.

 

[wrcmad]

Where is all the India/China metal coming from if COMEX inventory matters..... ?

Thought so....

Bump

 

[Northerncoins]

wrcmad ... where did you get the "silver lady" in your avatar? Looks nice....

 

[clear]

So wrcmad, what does backwardation mean.

 

[wrcmad]

So wrcmad, what does backwardation mean.

Backwardation is when GOFO is negative, or GLR is higher than LIBOR.
Why?

 

[Ronnie 666]

So wrcmad, what does backwardation mean.

Clear I don't know why you bother - try and ask the chirping cricket it may be more valuable ( perhaps that is his selfie?). wrcmad knows exactly what you are implying by backwardation in PM. So he gives you a definition instead of explaining why prices are higher now than at a future date - so cunning a plan Baldrick.

 

[wrcmad]

So wrcmad, what does backwardation mean.

Clear I don't know why you bother - try and ask the chirping cricket it may be more valuable ( perhaps that is his selfie?). wrcmad knows exactly what you are implying by backwardation in PM. So he gives you a definition instead of explaining why prices are higher now than at a future date - so cunning a plan Baldrick.

Yeah, I thought this was where this line of questioning was going.
So, rather than get into another bout of permabull-bubble-popping straight away, I thought it best to give the benefit of the doubt to your knowledge.... but to no avail, you are still spewing the permabull rhetoric.

I tried to hint in my definition above, but it is obvious you have been blinded.... not sure if you're blinded by emotion, pride, ego, or something else that makes you go blind?

So he gives you a definition instead of explaining why prices are higher now than at a future date - so cunning a plan Baldrick.

Strike one!
Forward rates being higher than spot does not define backwardation.
Try again.

Or maybe you could answer my original query about COMEX inventory with something other than another question? But I doubt it.

 

[monopolize]

I thought backwardation means the futures prices however many months out are lower than the current months prices?

 

[Ronnie 666]

So he gives you a definition instead of explaining why prices are higher now than at a future date - so cunning a plan Baldrick.

Strike one!
Forward rates being higher than spot does not define backwardation.
Try again.

Or maybe you could answer my original query about COMEX inventory with something other than another question? But I doubt it.

Strike one ! I though we were playing cricket ? Chirp chirp

 

[wrcmad]

So he gives you a definition instead of explaining why prices are higher now than at a future date - so cunning a plan Baldrick.

Strike one!
Forward rates being higher than spot does not define backwardation.
Try again.

Or maybe you could answer my original query about COMEX inventory with something other than another question? But I doubt it.

Strike one ! I though we were playing cricket ? Chirp chirp

Thought so. :lol:
it is becoming much clearer what is blinding you.

 

[wrcmad]

I thought backwardation means the futures prices however many months out are lower than the current months prices?

Nope.
But the permabulls will tell you that all day (it is in their interest to have you believe it).... and the blind just keep eating it up.

 

[monopolize]

I thought backwardation means the futures prices however many months out are lower than the current months prices?

Nope.
But the permabulls will tell you that all day (it is in their interest to have you believe it).... and the blind just keep eating it up.

The term backwardation, when used without the qualifier "normal", can be somewhat ambiguous. Although sometimes used as a synonym for normal backwardation (where a futures contract price is lower than the expected spot price at contract maturity), it may also refer to the situation where a futures contract price is merely lower than the current spot price.

From https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_backwardation

 

[wrcmad]

I thought backwardation means the futures prices however many months out are lower than the current months prices?

Nope.
But the permabulls will tell you that all day (it is in their interest to have you believe it).... and the blind just keep eating it up.

The term backwardation, when used without the qualifier "normal", can be somewhat ambiguous. Although sometimes used as a synonym for normal backwardation (where a futures contract price is lower than the expected spot price at contract maturity), it may also refer to the situation where a futures contract price is merely lower than the current spot price.

From https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_backwardation

It may, but forward price comparison is by no means decisive because it is not a measure of backwardation.
I'm sure Ronnie will be able to explain it better... :lol:
Hang on, he had better ask Baldrick.

 

[Ronnie 666]

I will continue watching Blackadder as he is far more entertaining than wrcmad and certainly Baldrick is far smarter. I suggest wrcmad write a new definition of backwardation for Wiki, one which covers all the subtle angles. Meanwhile, we the permabulls will continue sitting tight on our PM. wrcmad can then continue loading up on investment properties with bank debt yes another cunning plan as the market peaks out. Seriously ......

 

[valuecreator]

wrcmad you are going full retard.

VC out.

 

[monopolize]

Nope.
But the permabulls will tell you that all day (it is in their interest to have you believe it).... and the blind just keep eating it up.

The term backwardation, when used without the qualifier "normal", can be somewhat ambiguous. Although sometimes used as a synonym for normal backwardation (where a futures contract price is lower than the expected spot price at contract maturity), it may also refer to the situation where a futures contract price is merely lower than the current spot price.

From https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_backwardation

It may, but forward price comparison is by no means decisive because it is not a measure of backwardation.
I'm sure Ronnie will be able to explain it better... :lol:
Hang on, he had better ask Baldrick.

Ok this is what comes up first thing when I do a Google search for 'meaning of backwardation'

backwardation
bakwde()n/Submit
nounSTOCK EXCHANGEBRITISH
a situation in which the spot or cash price of a commodity is higher than the forward price.
"the development of a backwardation is associated with supply shortage"

So you can have your own theory on what backwardation means but in the REAL WORLD that's what 'backwardation' refers to.

If you have a problem with that and still believe you're right then take it up with Google.

 

[SpacePete]

Ok, I'll ask. Why are people discussing backwardation?

And in what sense is it being used?

Wikipedia tells me that, in the case of silver, it is sometimes applied to forward prices of other things, not futures contracts:

The term is sometimes applied to forward prices other than those of futures contracts, when analogous price patterns arise. For example, if it costs more to lease silver for 30 days than for 60 days, it might be said that the silver lease rates are "in backwardation". Negative lease rates for silver may indicate bullion banks require a risk premium for selling silver futures into the market.

From JMBullion, I see something that may apply to a short-term production capacity shortage of silver:

... if a natural gas refinery needs to shut down for maintenance, and refining capacity drops, then the price of natural gas for immediate delivery could potentially rise. In other words, because there may be a potential supply shortage now, the cost of the spot market can rise above the cost of future deliveries.

Another take on it from a gold broker site I see:

In a normal situation, the market is in contango for non-perishable commodities to be delivered in the future and that carry storage costs. These costs include storage fees and interest lost on the blocked money, minus the profit from leasing the commodity, if it is the case (e.g. gold). Backwardation is not the normal situation and suggests supply shortages in the spot markets. However, several commodities' markets are often in backwardation, in particular when seasonal aspects are factored in (e.g. perishable commodities). Backwardation rarely occurs in monetary assets like gold and silver, because there is always a large available inventory.

Backwardation in gold and silver is the consequence of interest rate manipulation by the government. Backwardation indicates that people prefer to be holding gold and silver, rather than fiat money (paper money) from a country (dollar, euro, etc.). If paper money were reigning supreme, backwardation in gold and silver would disappear, but this does not seem to be the case now. The gold future contract, cheaper than the spot price, shows that interest rates on gold are more important than fiat money's rates. The more gold and silver go toward backwardation, the more it shows that there is less gold and silver available to trade against dollars or other currencies. There will come a time when there will be no gold or silver available to trade against paper currencies. This will be preceded by a large increase in backwardation, all the way to permanent backwardation. A negative basis indicates a large shortage of available gold for delivery.

Gold backwardation indicated the extent to which gold leases cannot be extinguished by coaxing it from those holding physical gold. Why? Because there is a worry that the gold will not be returned to them.

https://www.goldbroker.com/news/backwardation-contango-gold-silver-market-explanations-466

 

[wrcmad]

I suggest wrcmad write a new definition of backwardation for Wiki, one which covers all the subtle angles.

I wouldn't piss on Wiki for reliable info, because it geniuses like you who make the entries.

Meanwhile, we the permabulls will continue sitting tight on our PM. wrcmad can then continue loading up on investment properties with bank debt yes another cunning plan as the market peaks out. Seriously ......

I don't have debt on IP.
If you keep doing this, you will go blind.

So, it seems you are unable to explain Comex or backwardation? :lol:
Yet you have so much to say?
It would be nice if you could make a constructive contribution.