Something more Arab Spring and Orange Revolution was weak sauce, I mean real civil collapse and hunger wars akin to African revolutions
Oh, my Dear Lord!
You think it could go that bad really? I am not sure it will lead to such a "civil collapse" and "hunger wars" African style.
But...
Honestly, it's the indirect reverberations that I'm more worried about. It is not so important what the Ruskies are doing, but how the rest of the world is reacting. I mean:
- India, Indonesia, Argentina, Serbia, Hungary, Turkey, Philippines... etc. etc. ETC. are restricting the export of food products/agricultural products partially, some TOTALLY
I am not sure that Europe cannot survive without all those external sources. Russia, Ukraine and now much of the rest of the world are excluded: no crops, very few other products coming from there. So, Europe will have to survive mostly on its own.
So, currently the food resources are gradually getting depleted, the food supply chain is breaking. The prices are rising, but certainly not following the rate of depletion.
The US could replace the streams of food products, but sadly the Americans don't put enough energy into agriculture, food production. Plus, US food products are either very expensive or GMO-destroyed.
Europe relied on Asian and South American food imports. If Brazil will keep delivering, then Europe might have something to feed on. Turkey is already restricting. So, pretty much what remains is Europe to feed itself. But the population is hu
There are plenty of large agricultural producers in Europe, but the issue is scarcity + high price.
Around 590 million people live in Europe (EU and non-EU members all included), without: Russia, Belarus, Ukraine. That's almost half of China or India. Almost double the US population.
What could add fuel to the fire: more migrants coming in due to famine in Africa and parts of Asia, as well as Ukraine. The Ukrainians are also suffering of hunger, the war is destroying their lives.
Let's just hope that peace is reached and the catastrophe gets avoided BEFORE winter kicks in. Otherwise, winter will destroy the EU economy.