2020 Collapse

Yeah I guess it comes down to a preferred investment strategy. As you say there is something to be said for making investment processes more efficient with regards to investment vehicles that already share similar risk levels.

Spreading the risk around may be the way to go, meaning, keep at least some of one's investments tied up in physical pm's under your own control (aka stacking) and hope for the best with the other managed investments.

I would be careful to note the distinction between stacking (when defined as taking physical possession of pm's and securing them at your own property) vs "paper gold investments" because these aren't the same things although many folks out there seem to think they are.
 
sgbuyer said:
You eat octopus? I've a fear of octopus since young.

I've seen youtube on restaurants serving octopus in italy or cryprus, can't remember which. Can you please tell us about the state of vaccination on treasure island?

We're above 50%. I personally took the Pfizer vaccine, two doses. No-one know whether it will last.

Have had 2-3x colds since then, one in particular felt pretty bad.

I am more afraid of these new strains of Corona, which seem to come out like Google or Windows updates: Corona 2.0, Corona 2.1, Corona 2.2....
Recently they stopped using the names "Brazilian variant" or "Indian variant" for fear of stigmatization. So now the most dangerous one is called "Delta"?

I don't know where these coronas are coming out from, but I am already annoyed by not having been to a real holiday ever since this madness started.

grilled-baby-octopus.jpg
Click to expand...
 
Only reason I'm buying more crypto is because I got a nice raise at work and a bonus.
We cant find any employees and are down to 6 on the asphalt crew now.
Starting wage has doubled and a signing bonus so we get that too whoohoo! It's nice to stick it out sometimes.
I'm really enjoying the smaller crew but the boss is shitting himself.
 
That lack of enthusiasm in the labour force for work may be a hangover from the stimcheck helicopter money bonanza so grab those $$ while the going is good and don't forget to stack. \m/
My best guess is that cryptos were riding high on stimcheck money. I'd be concerned that once that starts drying up and scrubs need to go find themselves actual jobs again it will have a knock-on effect on the crypto markets.
 
The Fed will increase interest rates, gold plunges. You saw this probably.

The USD is already up in many currencies.

Perhaps the USD will become more expensive temporarily. Might be a good grab now if you're planning to travel post-covid.

I wonder how this could impact cryptos.
 
The cryptos and other digital and paper assets have been riding high because of the cheap near zero percent and even negative interest rates,
something we have never had before in recorded history.

It has little to do with the stimulus money and government handouts.

Like I said previously on another thread when interest rates start returning back to their normal levels then you find out what the true value of your cryptos, shares real estate, and other assets are.

Right now they are all in a bubble just waiting to pop.

And you won't have to wait until 2023 for interest rates to start climbing, forget what they a saying.

They are working hard behind the scenes to engineer an inflation breakout so that they can then claim that they have no choice but to start
raising interest rates sharply next year to combat the inflation that they created.

Interesting times coming up in the next few years that's for sure.

And as the Chinese curse proverb alludes to, it will be more of a curse than a blessing for most of the unprepared people.
 
JohnnyBravo300 said:
It's no secret. Theyve printed trillions in the open and bragged about it like it's a good thing.
Click to expand...

They're not printing millions to in an attempt to create an inflation breakout. They're printing millions in an attempt to create a debt fuelled spending economic recovery with a moderate rise in the inflation rate, for the RBA it's around the 2% mark. And doing a shit job of it.

@hardyakkagold is arguing that they have a secret plan to engineer an inflation breakout. This implies a rate of inflation in excess of their mandated task. There is no public evidence that the RBA or The Fed are planning on engineering an inflation breakout so I was wondering how he came to the conclusion. Either he must be privy to the discussions in the board meetings that's not reported in the minutes or when they face The Senate, or he's just making it all up as he goes along. I'm of the opinion he's just making it all up as he goes along.
 
And printing money on its own won't create an inflation breakout until the demand for labour outstrips supply which will result in significant wage rises. Which is likely to be years away.
 
A view here that stimulus money has had a major impact on cryptos. Particularly in countries such as the US.

Imo another reason the crypto-sphere has been riding high recently is because of the infinite money printing and stimchecks filtering its way through the economy. Scrubs sitting at home have been spending much of that money, and guess what they have been spending it on?

A: Cryptos

  • Are the authorities in the US and elsewhere going to sustain QE, helicopter money, infinite fiat issuance and stimchecks for scrubs indefinitely?
  • What happens when they stop issuing helicopter money?
  • To what degree will countries who are less engaged in QE and moneyprinting go along with a system where major countries keep debasing their currencies yet the apparent purchasing power of the QE countries - vs the non-QE countries own currencies - appears to maintain its purchasing power in relative terms? Will this system start unravelling or will the non-QE countries be too afraid of being bombed back to democracy by the QE countries if they got off that fiat train and demanded to settle trade in hard assets?

It seems counter-intuitive to me that the current system can maintain itself indefinitely. The "solution" to such economic problems are often wars. A war climate is openly being stoked and promoted today. As usual many among the public think it's a wonderful idea while the media fill their heads with the nobility of the cause, the righteousness of it all not to mention the holy and hungry gods of human rights, democracy and freedom for whom sacrifices must be brought.

That's why one should also stack and maintain a contingency plan separated from virtual assets.
 
holdandown said:
A view here that stimulus money has had a major impact on cryptos. Particularly in countries such as the US.

Imo another reason the crypto-sphere has been riding high recently is because of the infinite money printing and stimchecks filtering its way through the economy. Scrubs sitting at home have been spending much of that money, and guess what they have been spending it on?
Click to expand...

Onchain analysis shows that the number of new addresses (which would contain stimcheck funds) is no where near as high as the peak in 2018. The greatest number of new addresses since then were created during January this year, some 2 months before the $1400 cheques were issued. No doubt some of the money printed and issued as stimulus cheques would have been spent on crypto, but it's more likely they would've been spent on consumables for example:

Screen Shot 2021-06-18 at 4.00.36 pm.png
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber*

* supply constraints also played a major factor.

holdandown said:
To what degree will countries who are less engaged in QE and moneyprinting go along with a system where major countries keep debasing their currencies
Click to expand...

Those not engaging in QE can't because their bonds really aren't in high demand as their currencies can't be converted into commodities of value or other more highly regarded fiat currencies. I think Indonesia is mostly skipping the bond issuing bit and its Central Bank is just directly crediting the government with Rupiah. No one wants Indonesian bonds. US bonds or Australian or any of the world reserve currencies have a ready market and so their governments can issue bonds. Most of the rest of the world doesn't.
 
its a debt based system, thinking about debt traps
other countires can use inflations, their rates are mostly higher than 5%-20%, its also another paper based system
 
It's a pity one cannot trace stim money and see directly where it goes. Many of these people may have already had trading accounts but would have lacked the funds to go wild in the casino.
To put it another way, many of these folks may have been less inclined to gamble money they had to work for and which they would have had to use to pay bills, vs splashing out magic money they were just given.
 
I dont think they are purposefully trying to cause inflation, it's just the effect that naturally occurs wiith easy money and endless debasement.
It doesnt matter if they want it or not its occurring anyway and its here now.
Inflation is a natural part of weakening fiat..
 
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