2020 Collapse

Back in 2012 I predicted a correction by looking at the charts, the trends and the strength of each bullish uproar. Almost everyone who commented has rejected the idea.

Some are saying that gold will correct now, others say it will crash "like in 2013", but I just don't feel that way. There are too many problems eroding economies around the world right now.


Even if Corona pulls back, the effects are long-lasting:
1) social turmoil in the US, riots (with all the racism going on... and I mean the anti-white racism, which no-one will ever admit, because "only white people can be racist")
2) the automotive industry has suffered a tremendous blow (and people won't start buying cars right now)
3) the flow of goods from China to Europe and the US has dwindled, slowed down (even on eBay you can't order certain products anymore, they cost more or merchants can't ship them)
4) rising joblessness around Europe and the USA
5) food price inflation (in my area we have 50-100 % price inflation on groceries, but I'm happy to see that beer remained the same :D )
6) rising poverty: as a result of the previous two
7) stock market problems: we'll see more of it around the world
8) the travel and tourism industry, HORECA are collapsing around the world (and many countries live out of tourism: Spain, Malta, Greece... without it they're almost dead)
9) office real estate is collapsing with the discovery of new "work from home" opportunities
10) less new jobs are being created, while unemployment is rising
11) as industries produce frail performance, mining will also decline (perhaps this will come in time, slower, if some of the other decline-trends will feed it, we will see metal mining decline
in 6-24 months)
12) less people will take personal credits (due to poverty and job loss, people will be reluctant to request credits and will strive to save more)


I don't think gold will crash this time, not in many countries.

But one thing comes to my mind when we're talking gold's price level (and no-one seems to notice that): its climbs and corrections or crashes are usually due to some events/trends (many of which are temporary), as opposed to the assets and stocks, which rise or go down due to more sustained factors.

When gold rises, is rises because of panic, fear, pandemics, war... and that exactly is the reason why gold's price can go down just as easily as it went up.
The last 10 years have proven gold's extremely volatile nature during crisis. People buy it, it goes up, but when the buying fever stops, it drops.

But when food prices soar or when a new successful company's shares rise, then they're more likely to steadily climb and steadily go down.

Gold is strongly driven by temporary-demand-given momentum. How I see it is that this demand is very hard to sustain and then the price keeps falling down.

During a gold standard or in a period when "everything else" is turning to rubbish, there might be constant demand for gold, which stabilizes its price.

The only thing that could ensure a steady long-term climb would be sustained economic problems, such as inflation climbing for a number of years, long-term constant GDP decline in major economies etc.
Basically, "something bad" has to keep coming down the drain on order to feed gold's price.
 

I've been watching his videos past month, very easy to understand for someone who isn't that technical. His strategy is simple, buy when prices are low, sell when they are high. No emotions involved.
 
I dont think it will ever drop that much with what is going on.
Like schiff says and hes right, "everything the fed is doing right now is great for gold."
 
sgbuyer said:
Yes, it shouldn't drop much, but we have to watch China, especially for industrial metals such as silver and copper. Ultimately, the primary goal is to oust Trump, at all costs.

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-08-03/Storm-clouds-are-gathering.html
Click to expand...

Bro, if Trump goes, we can all say goodbye to everything, the left is going to start WW3.



World economy to see 'worst contraction' in 2020, steel output, demand to fall: N. Chandrasekaran

"NEW DELHI : Steel demand is expected to decline significantly in 2020-21 in line with a projected contraction in the global economy due to the impact of coronavirus pandemic, Tata Steel has said in its annual report.

Most of the steel producing regions are expected to witness a decline in crude steel output due to production cuts amidst ongoing lockdowns, Tata Steel said.

The global economic growth is expected to see a contraction of over 3% in 2020, Tata Steel Chairman N Chandrasekaran said terming the slump as the "worst contraction" since the 1930s.

A contraction in the global GDP is not at all a good sign for the global steel sector as steel demand is positively correlated with the economic growth."


FULL ARTICLE:
https://www.livemint.com/news/india...-to-fall-n-chandrasekaran-11597581316807.html



This is what I was saying earlier: lower industrial production, lower industrial demand >>> lower demand for metals.

This could have either positive or negative influence on gold's price. Depends on whether you look at mining or at the economies' performance... etc.
 
I think the damage is done no matter who wins haha. Trump might keep the bubbles inflated longer and have more debt printed than ever but how does that help anyone?
To stretch out the death of the dollar is only going to prolong the pain and even more will suffer than are now.
I guess they havent accomplished anything until Codename MAGA is fully implemented and carried through, aka "Operation Destroy the Middle Class".
 
JohnnyBravo300 said:
Trump might keep the bubbles inflated longer and have more debt printed than ever but how does that help anyone?
Click to expand...

If implemented correctly then the increasing levels of debt will help everyone. The price we pay for it will be a much larger centralised federal government which will come at the expense of the autonomy of the states.

JohnnyBravo300 said:
To stretch out the death of the dollar is only going to prolong the pain and even more will suffer than are now.
Click to expand...

The dollar is not dying, it's just a tool. It's not going anywhere. Nothing else will replace it. It'll be around for as ever long as there is a government involved in centrally planning the economy.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
If implemented correctly then the increasing levels of debt will help everyone. The price we pay for it will be a much larger centralised federal government which will come at the expense of the autonomy of the states.
Click to expand...

There are good debt and bad debt. If it's spend on island orgies and overseas military adventures, it is money down the drain. If it's spent on border security, schools and repairing roads and bridges, building wind and solar farms, it is good debt.
 
JohnnyBravo300 said:
I think the damage is done no matter who wins haha. Trump might keep the bubbles inflated longer and have more debt printed than ever but how does that help anyone?
To stretch out the death of the dollar is only going to prolong the pain and even more will suffer than are now.
I guess they havent accomplished anything until Codename MAGA is fully implemented and carried through, aka "Operation Destroy the Middle Class".
Click to expand...

Some analysts say that if Trump stays, then there will be more social turmoil.

But if he leaves... then the commies get into position.

Yes, I agree that either way, the problems are too big. I still can't believe this is happening.

"SHTF" is happening. I just hope it gets over as soon as possible peacefully.
 
Turkish Lira erodes, while the government restrains people from buying foreign currencies, so they turn to GOLD:



There was basically no other way for people to preserve their wealth.
Banks started charging extra fees for taking their money out of their accounts.

At least, this is what happened according to this video in which the vlogger is reading articles.
 
Last edited:
Ipv6Ready said:
Supply chain disruption will fuel inflation
Click to expand...

if your talking about farming to the grocery stores, it would be short term price increase.
it will be bottle necked sure, so for example meat industry due to closures of meat works plants in VIC for covid lock downs, the animals will be on the farms awaiting sale, so once that resumes there will be an over supply, Ive talked to farmer friends who are worried about these meat works closures as that will mean their sales are down now, but when they resume operation they worry about the second hit where there is an oversupply and they wont get their regular sale prices on their live stock, they worry they will be having to sell in a flooded market which could take a few years to level back out.
there are also plenty of other things that contribute to an increase or decrease in CPI other than food prices going up.
be like han san 3 months ago, the price went nuts as supply was down and demand was up, every man and their dog pumped out as much as they could, now you can walk into any discount store around my area to find boxes and boxes of the shit for half the price it was before covid.
when people have less money to spend or tighten their belts they spend less, prices go down and competition ramps up. thats why in economic times deflation is more common.
Another example
My partner is a head chef and responsible for stock ordering, all her suppliers are coming in hard and fast offering deals on allot of stuff, due mass closures of other restaurants and cafes, its been leaving the suppliers with an over supply due to less businesses to supply to. those suppliers also went a few months without making hardly any sales when we were in lock down and had shit sitting in their warehouses doing nothing during that time.

there will be things that will go up and allot of things that will go down that would likely offset those that go up which will effect CPI
 
Last edited:
TreasureHunter said:
Bro, if Trump goes, we can all say goodbye to everything, the left is going to start WW3.
Click to expand...

If Trump goes, the dollar will dive, and WW3 will start. The dollar is what is preventing WW3. Contrary to what most believe, the US itself may not involve in a big way unless dragged into it just like WW2.

There is no such thing as "Eurasia". They are all enemies to each other. People don't read history, "Eurasia" is forever at war and they are still sitting on each other's territories conquered from previous wars. The last 70 years is actually an abnormally.

Without dollar hegemony, everyone in Eurasia will bring out scores from 500 or 1000 years ago to settle. What is most scary is the conflict won't be based on ideology or east vs west. It will be tribal.
 
sgbuyer said:
If Trump goes, the dollar will dive, and WW3 will start. The dollar is what is preventing WW3. Contrary to what most believe, the US itself may not involve in a big way unless dragged into it just like WW2.

There is no such thing as "Eurasia". They are all enemies to each other. People don't read history, "Eurasia" is forever at war and they are still sitting on each other's territories conquered from previous wars. The last 70 years is actually an abnormally.

Without dollar hegemony, everyone in Eurasia will bring out scores from 500 or 1000 years ago to settle. What is most scary is the conflict won't be based on ideology or east vs west. It will be tribal.
Click to expand...

Europe is its own "enemy". Sad. Everyone hates everyone in Europe. And, although the situation could have normalized, the colonial powers generally stimulated the hatred between the eastern countries.

Europe should be a land of true collaboration, like the Swiss example. But people are indeed too dumb to learn from history.
I think it's mainly because of the colonial western powers, which have had the chance to turn the wheels of history in the right direction after WW2 and after the Cold War... But they didn't.
Instead, they continued the exploitation of the smaller countries and the rivalries among themselves.

They've used up terms such as "partnership for peace", "European Union", "solidarity" for the wrong scopes. Now those words don't mean anything, because they were wasted for the wrong dark causes. Now less and less believe in the EU. Increasingly more people are disgusted by the Bruxelles-run colonial powerhouse. Soviet Union 2.0 (we'll, it's a more "human" version, but there are too many similarities).

The EU could have been a structure of mutual respect, equality, equity and collaboration. But it turned out to be a centralized tyrannical ideological powerhouse of the great colonial powers and their shadow puppet masters (see Soros).

Europe is the most divided continent. Atomized.
And if there is no mutual respect and equity, then there's nothing. The EU remains the great powers' powerhouse (but without the smaller states, countries such as France would slip lower. They subjugate the smaller states, reason why so many are turning euroskeptic.
It's a wonder that Greece stayed in the EU and it was the UK that left, I still can't believe it.

It's odd how we suddenly returned to the Cold War (2.0 version) since the 2014 Russian-Ukrainian crisis. Someone is exploiting this situation as well. It's been 6 years and instead of reducing the problem (isolating it and dissolving it in a humane manner), it extended to become Cold War 2.0.

Now add the Middle East conflicts, North Africa, the "migrant apocalypse", the EU-Turkey "sabre rattling", the Trump vs. China match... and some sugar... it still isn't edible.

I see very dark times ahead.

(yes, there could have been a Eurasia, but the US is making sure that the continent is split between Europe and the rest being: Russia, China, India, Turkey and the Middle East... otherwise Eurasia might forget about the US and the latter might have a very looooooong lonely life)
 
It seems the Turks dont want the dollar either. They are selling everything they can as their currency collapses and buying gold, not dollars.
The dollar will only have its pathetic amount of strength as long as people want it.
Once it's not wanted its days are over and the world is watching it lose value to gold daily.
 
Jason1 said:
if your talking about farming to the grocery stores, it would be short term price increase.
it will be bottle necked sure, so for example meat industry due to closures of meat works plants
Click to expand...

Covid related supply issues are miniscule.

When people can wrap their head around why a loaf of bread baked in Parkes NSW by farm wife who ground up her own flour from wheat her husband sowed and harvested is cheap because of China than you will unsderstand why price of everything will go up for the next twenty years.

That is until we find countries that can make the basic chemical and industrial feedstock for the same price as China.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top