TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
It was not a quote from Dan Pena, but a conclusion.
My take on:
FOOD INDUSTRY:
- food supply chain interruptions are causing small local food stores can go bankrupts by the tens of thousands
- beer, alcohol sales went down, so did certain food types (while basic foods are going up)
- coffee production is down (due to lockdowns), supply chain interruptions just add to that: how do you think this affects coffee shops?
- the focus will be on basic foods, so many fancy restaurants will go bust
- McDonald's, KFC, Burger King, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut are suffering tremendous losses (some smaller chains will go down the drain)
- many restaurants were living out of tourism (especially in Europe), also catering firms etc.: they will suffer a low not with the downturn of tourism
Yes, food will always be needed, but not all types of food, but basic food, which is already being overhoarded.
Less staff are available, so less people work on producing food.
Luxury eating, restaurants always go bust during crises. Let me take a guess: Hard Rock Cafe? I always found their pasta overpriced. I could make the exact same food at home for 20x less!
Many people will lose their jobs in this industry.
TOURISM:
- the entire tourism industry is collapsing due to lockdowns, blocked flights (between the US and the rest of the world)
- airlines: read about the trends, the news: Emirates strongly affected, FlyBe went defunct
- flights will be much more expensive in the future (near future to distant future) and probably even less people will travel, airline fleets will be reduced
- Boeing is being slammed (after the board software problems of 737-MAX, now Corona hits them: less orders
- both Airbus, Boeing (not sure about Embraer and Bombardier) are getting airplane orders canceled by the hundreds! (airlines are canceling many orders!)
- many airlines are reducing staff
- hotels? (anyone can guess it's a terrible time for them)
- Airbnb problems: people living out of renting apartments out are making losses (it was a bubble and it popped!)
- everyone is saving and while people are losing their jobs, they will SAVE instead of traveling (at least Machu Picchu could be less crowded, but it may be far more expensive to visit right now)
- splurge tourism will take a deep dive
- countries thriving on tourism could crash economically (Malta, Spain...)
- many people working in tourism are already losing their jobs (then: let's see the connection between tourism and food/HORECA specifically - it is easy to understand that the food industry will be slammed by the decline of tourism)
Yes, some people will continue to travel (I am looking forward to being one of them), but not everyone. They will simply not be able to afford it.
I expect much more expensive flights. Overall operating costs will go up, demand will be lower, but airline fleets will be smaller as well. I don't know how many low cost airlines will survive (depends on their business model).
Watch how more and more cities turn into DETROITS and CARACASES around the world...
The Greek-style crisis scenarios will be the "happier" cases.
