Currently we're facing the following trends:
1.
Corona panic: people around the world are panicking and hoarding food, masks, medicine
2.
hysteria ignites violence: cases of racism against Chinese, but also violence against coughing people (there were cases of violence against people who were coughing in public places)
3.
prices rise: some shops (including online shops) are increasing prices (either greed-driven or, in order to tackle the overwhelming number of orders/visits)
4. some
products disappeared completely: no masks, no hand sanitizers, no toilet paper, no paper tissues in some places...
5.
currencies affected (several countries): many currencies are losing ground (apparently, the EUR and USD are doing well)
6.
massive-quarantining, border lockdowns, flight cancelations, etc.
Possible implications, consequences during the spring/summer period:
1. various economies will experience
recession as a result of the heavily affected industries (lower exports, lower production), transportation (due to road, railway, flight cancellations, it is obvious why the entire segment will be affected) etc.
2.
supply chain interruptions, lack of certain goods (due to quarantines - the ones in China especially...)
3.
currency devaluation through inflation +
consumer price inflation (fewer, but more expensive goods, yet the demand will stay high due to panic/hysteria): here it's important to note that less "cheap" goods will arrive from China, so naturally they will have to be obtained from elsewhere (and thus, the prices will climb); imagine anything from garlic to laptops could cost substantially more
4.
further spread of the Corona virus?
5. the
travel industry decline: countries thriving on tourism will suffer the most, as will all branches of the economy and companies tightly connected to it (tour operators, catering firms, HORECA etc.)
6.
new supply chains will appear: in order not to buy from China, some companies/countries will find new suppliers for certain goods and, some of these new supply chains/routes will remain, which means China will still loose a portion of the market
7.
bank runs: as a result of further hysteria (this time due to economic issues)
8.
gold's price will rise: the second phase will be the economic downturn (if not something else), which will empower gold as a hedge against currency devaluation
9. more violence
10.
political decisions "under the radar": "things" will keep happening, as many major powers will take advantage of the Corona/economic crisis-enduced media mess (Russia/USA/EU/etc. will be able to "slip things through" and you won't notice it... until you go to Zerohedge
)
11.
massive migrant waves to Europe - as Erdogan lets them go through and/or he can't stop them either (some countries might resort to extreme measures at the borders)
...fill out the blank...
What do you think?
